NFL football will be played this month…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by The NFFC:
- The Broncos lost some key WRs to injury
- Still no contract for free agent RB Dalvin Cook
- Favorite Fantasy Pick in Every Round: Nick Chubb and more
- AFC North Betting Preview: Ravens over/under 9.5 wins?
- It’s 8/1. Take it away, Ian Hartitz…
Injuries are the most unfortunate part about the game we love, and two key ones struck the Broncos WR room on Monday:
Tim Patrick suffered a non-contact lower-leg injury that is believed to be a torn Achilles.
K.J. Hamler was diagnosed with a minor heart irritation and is expected to be waived with a non-football illness designation.
Prayers up to both receivers on a healthy recovery – Hamler, in particular, at least seems to be dealing with a more minor issue and is reportedly expected to miss weeks, not months.
The never-sleep nature of fantasy football necessitates immediate reactions to this sort of gut-wrenching news, so here it goes:
1️⃣ Jerry Jeudy (WR20, pick 39.1 ADP)
More locked in as the offense’s No. 1 WR than ever; he remains one of my favorite fourth-round picks after low-key balling out down the stretch of last season.
- Week 14: 8 receptions-73 yards-3 TD, PPR WR1
- Week 15: 7-76-0, WR22
- Week 16: 6-117-0, WR14
- Week 17: 7-38-0, WR28
- Week 18: 5-154-0, WR3
Overall, Jeudy scored more PPR fantasy points than any WR not named Justin Jefferson or Keenan Allen during the final five weeks of 2022. Not too shabby!
2️⃣ Courtland Sutton (WR49, 98.8)
Suddenly cemented in three-WR sets after being a part of trade rumors throughout the offseason. While Sutton has disappointed with 58-776-2 and 64-829-2 receiving lines over the past two years, he could now profile as the team’s go-to red-zone threat considering his immense size advantage over his fellow starters.
3️⃣ Marvin Mims (WR72, 165.3)
The biggest winner from these injuries considering the rookie seemingly now has a secure spot in three-WR sets. Mims earned the fourth-highest score in the Fantasy Life Rookie WR Super Model and has the sort of field-stretching ability that should mesh perfectly with Russell Wilson’s patented moon balls.
Of course, there is additional competition here. Former Saints Marquez Callaway and Lil’Jordan Humphrey could theoretically earn roles, while Montrell Washington and Kendall Hinton have the benefit of entering their second season with Russ. Maybe the team really leans into Greg Dulcich as a full-time receiver in his “Joker” role.
Ultimately, only the Jets have a larger projected spike in points per game using 2023 Vegas team totals. There should be some newfound fantasy football upside to go around in this passing game.
There was a scenario where healthy versions of Patrick and Hamler forced head coach Sean Payton to rotate five bodies in three-WR sets; suddenly each of Jeudy, Sutton, Mims and Dulcich profile as far safer bets to see ample target share inside of this (hopefully) ascending passing attack.
It sure would be a lot cooler if God turned off injuries already; just realize this condensed pecking order at WR is a rather big net positive for all of the remaining talents involved.
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It’s pretty difficult to overly replicate any individual fantasy roster from one draft to another. This is mostly due to the order and managers involved changing, but also because of the reality that a LOT can change in a hurry over the course of 200-plus picks.
That said, Completing over 150 best ball drafts and a handful of re-draft squads this offseason has helped me identify certain targets I repeatedly attempt to come away with at cost.
🎯 Today’s goal: Ian’s FAVORITE individual fantasy football pick in every round.
We’ll use Underdog ADP while assuming 18 rounds and 12 teams. I’ve already broken down my favorite specific ranges of drafts.
As always: It’s a great day to be great.
🐏 Round 1: Rams WR Cooper Kupp (WR3, pick 4.1 ADP)
I don’t intend to list the highest-ranked fantasy player in every round range. You can check out the (always free!) Fantasy Life Rankings for that.
Rather, the bigger goal in the first round is figuring out which draft position offers the best range of options in at least the next few rounds.
Right now, the 1.03, 1.04 and 1.05 picks are especially intriguing to me for a few reasons:
I consider Kupp and Tyreek Hill to be in the same tier as Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase, so you’re guaranteed to secure one of these alphas with Christian McCaffrey typically off the board inside the first four picks.
The Round 2 (pick 20-22) pickings should include an elite RB1 in the form of Tony Pollard, Saquon Barkley and/or Derrick Henry. Hell, even Nick Chubb is occasionally there.
There are still good opportunities to get another dope RB in the form of Josh Jacobs or Rhamondre Stevenson in Round 3, but if that’s not your thing – no worries because stud WRs (DK Metcalf, Calvin Ridley) and the Baltimore kings (TE Mark Andrews, QB Lamar Jackson) are typically all still available.
Kupp gets the nod here because it’s rare to be able to get the back-to-back reigning, undisputed fantasy WR1 champion in PPR points per game at a mini discount AND because Matthew Stafford continues to stand out as one of fantasy’s single-best late-round QB options.
🥈 Honorable mention: Vikings WR Justin Jefferson (WR1, 1.1)
I would have said Jefferson and the 1.01 was the best starting spot in drafts a few weeks ago when it was more plausible to still get guys like Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard and Derrick Henry on the 2-3 turn. Alas, those days sure seem to be over. Sad!
🐶 Round 2: Browns RB Nick Chubb (RB4, pick 13.2 ADP)
It’s a minor miracle how well Chubb has performed in fantasy land over the years considering the extent to which the Browns have refrained from fully featuring him:
- 2020: RB28 in expected PPR points per game, RB9 real
- 2021: RB20 expected, RB12 real
- 2022: RB18 expected, RB8 real
Fast forward to 2023, and Kareem Hunt remains a free agent, while D’Ernest Johnson signed with the Jaguars. It’d make sense if Jerome Ford is involved to a decent extent; just realize Chubb might finally get the sort of three-down role that his extraterrestrial talents deserve.
The reality that RBs like Chubb are even available in Round 2 is shocking in itself. This usually doesn’t happen!
While the best fantasy football draft strategy is to be like water and adjust to your room’s environment, my favorite rosters have usually been the ones that featured one or two RBs inside of the first three rounds.
🥈 Honorable mention: Cowboys RB Tony Pollard (RB7, 19.9)
Very similar reasoning as Chubb, but seemingly with just a little more risk of his team signing one of the remaining free-agent RBs. You could throw Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry into this mix too: I LOVE the Round 2 value at RB this year.
Read on for Ian’s favorite pick in Rounds 3-18
😕 Jonathan Taylor is back (ha) at Colts camp. Not exactly moving great though!
😬 This Cowboys RB has been suspended for two games. The position can’t catch a break, man.
🤬 Good news: Kyle Pitts (knee) is getting reps in one-on-one sessions. Bad news: His QB.
🙏 Alvin Kamara plans to meet with Commissioner Roger Goodell. -500 that any suspension is announced the Friday before Labor Day.
🏥 The Colts RB room takes another hit. Are these backups even real people?
🐶 Can their QB bounce back in 2023? There’s sneaky Super Bowl upside if so.
🤝 Josh Allen and Peter King add another chapter to their rivalry. People don’t forget!
🦅 The Eagles made a BIG uniform announcement. 1.02 alternate behind only the Chargers powder blue?
💨 Babe wake up, new Bijan Robinson training camp highlights just dropped. Adjust the ranks.
The AFC North is often considered one of the most competitive divisions in the league. Some of the best rivalries come from this division, and this year, all four teams feel as if they can walk away as THE champion of the North. Today, Matt breaks down an AFC North squad that deserves to carry quite a bit of 2023 optimism after making more than a few key offseason additions.
Since 2018, three of the four teams have won the division at least once. The Bengals have been kings of the AFC North over the past two seasons, led by star quarterback Joe Burrow. They will attempt to win their third straight division title, while the Browns look to win their first since 1989 (!).
That being said, I have my eyes set on another team to compete with them in 2023…
🏈 Baltimore Ravens
- +220 to win AFC North (BetMGM)
- Implied Wins: 9.5 (-165, BetMGM)
- Key Additions:
- Zay Flowers (WR)
- Odell Beckham Jr (WR)
Baltimore had a lot going on this offseason, most notably inking a long-term contract with former MVP Lamar Jackson.
There was a stretch of time in the offseason when it appeared that Jackson would not be a member of the Ravens moving forward, but the two sides came together and worked things out.
They also signed Odell Beckham Jr., who just might be the most talented WR at Jackson’s disposal. OBJ missed last season with a knee injury, but when healthy remains a lethal weapon in the passing game.
Baltimore also drafted Boston College standout Zay Flowers, who should immediately make an impact in three-WR sets.
But Baltimore had a lot of turnover on defense, moving on from five veterans.
Some of them struggled last year, so this will open up opportunities for younger (hopefully better) players. If this revamped defense can perform at a high level this season, this sure looks like a team can make some noise.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens over 9.5 wins (-165, BetMGM)
Baltimore is a team that I am high on entering this season. On the offensive side of things, the Ravens have finally gifted Lamar with multiple high-level WRs. I believe that Jackson is going to (again) have an MVP-level season.
The contract stuff is now in the rear-view mirror, allowing the 26-year-old talent to shift all of his focus to the field and be his dominant self once again.
I do have some questions about the defense of the Ravens, but I trust that they will at least be good enough to keep them in games.
Lastly, Baltimore has one of the league’s easiest schedules, as their opponents had a combined win percentage of just .484 last season.
Read on for the rest of the AFC North
You can tail the Ravens o9.5 wins on BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Sign up and start betting today!
