💪 The Juggernauts Roll On

The Giants could have used a hot shower...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

• 2 powerhouse teams move on
• Morning Download: Pete gets you caught up
• Could Aaron Rodgers be traded?
• Eliot's favorite stack: Niners & Cowboys
• Game Previews: Everything you need to know
• Player Matchups: Deebo Samuel
• It’s 1/22. Take it away, Peter Overzet...

We didn't get any barn burners yesterday, but there was still plenty of intrigue as two of the best teams in the NFL punched their tickets to the conference championship game...

💪 The Chiefs are inevitable

There were a few moments early in this game where it felt like the Jags might still have a little magic up their sleeves saved from the Wild Card round...

Christian Kirk scored a TD to tie the game up at 7 and then Patrick Mahomes got hurt. The injury looked bad (like season-ending bad) and it appeared that the Jags had some life.

But then something happened that is a familiar scene for AFC teams at Arrowhead in the playoffs...the Chiefs found a way to win. While Mahomes exited to the locker room with his ankle injury, journeyman backup and former Jags QB Chad Henne orchestrated a long drive capped off with a TD to Travis Kelce. 

Speaking of Kelce, he was an absolute monster in this game. His 14 receptions set the record for most catches by a TE in a playoff game...ever.

14 catches for Travis Kelce! @tkelce

📺: #JAXvsKC on NBC
📱: Stream on NFL+ bit.ly/3iOWrzi

— NFL (@NFL)
Jan 21, 2023

The Jags did cut the lead to three at the beginning of the 4th quarter, but ultimately turnovers did them in. Jamal Agnew had a brutal, non-contact fumble deep into Chiefs territory that prevented them from cutting the lead to three.

Kelce's reception record wasn't the only impressive nugget to emerge from this game:

• The Chiefs are now one of only three teams with 5+ consecutive conference championship game appearances
• Andy Reid is the first coach in NFL history to lead two separate franchises to 10 playoff victories. This man deserves that bratwurst.
• Lawrence lost on a Saturday for the first time in his collegiate and NFL career.

The Chiefs will now either host the Bengals next week at Arrowhead or head to Atlanta to face the Bills on a neutral field. 

As for the Jags, they'll ultimately end up as a fun footnote to the 2022 season, but the future is undeniably bright with an exciting young core, good coaching, and a star WR ready to supercharge the entire offense.

Jaguars over the past 5 seasons:
2018: 5-11, last in AFC South
2019: 6-10, last in AFC South
2020: 1-15, last in AFC South, worst record in NFL
2021: 3-14, last in AFC South, worst record in NFL

2022: 9-8, AFC South champs, advanced to divisional round.

Bright future in Duval.

— Field Yates (@FieldYates)
Jan 22, 2023

💪 The Eagles are for real

I'll admit it...I had some lingering doubts about the Eagles. Was Jalen Hurts fully healthy? Could they put away a red-hot divisional opponent? Did they need another year of battle testing?

Well, at least for one more week, the Eagles put any questions to rest as they boat raced the Giants 38-7. The offense moved the ball at will the entire game. You know things are rolling when your backup RBs, Kenneth Gainwell (12-112-1) and Boston Scott (6-32-1), are putting up gaudy numbers.

And yes, you read that correctly: Scott continued his absurd streak of owning the Giants with another TD.

Eagles’ RB Boston Scott now has scored 11 touchdowns in nine games vs. the Giants.

Scott has scored seven touchdowns in 52 games vs. all other NFL teams.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter)
Jan 22, 2023

DeVonta Smith (6-61-1) and Dallas Goedert (5-58-1) did damage early, but this was such a blowout that Hurts (154 yards and 2 TDs through the air; 9-34-1 on the ground) barely had to break a sweat.

The Eagles will now host the winner of today's Niners-Cowboys tilt with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.

The Giants, like the Jaguars, have a promising future ahead, but will need to address their defense before they can hang with the big boys.

Brian Daboll’s first season with the G-Men:

🔵 Went from 4-13 to 9-7-1 in the regular season
🔴 First playoff appearance since 2016
🔵 Won first playoff game since 2011
🔴 NFL Coach of the Year candidate

Bright future ahead.

— ESPN (@espn)
Jan 22, 2023

• GAME HUB - Everything you need to know about each game all in one place.
• INACTIVES - updated at 1:30pm ET for 3pm kickoff
• PLAYER PROPS TOOL - Our freshly updated props tool is here to give you the best bets for each game.
• RANKINGS - Full Divisional Round rankings for multiple scoring settings from Dwain & Waz
• FANTASY LIFE TWITTER - If news breaks, we'll have it.
• START/SIT TOOL - Debating who to start? Simply type in both players to this tool, and we'll tell you the best option:

🏈 So you want to play in the Big Game, eh?

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📁 The Bills slot WR conundrum

It's a relatively clean slate for today's game from an injury perspective, but the Bills slot WR position presents an interesting wrinkle. Isaiah McKenzie (hamstring) missed the Wild Card round, which meant a host of WRs, including Cole Beasley, took turns filling in against the Dolphins. 

McKenzie practiced in full this week, however, and will give the Bills a much-needed weapon on offense. We like his chances to recapture his slot role, although Beasley and Khalil Shakir will still be involved: Chris Jones and Frank Clark know how to party.

🚑 An update on Mahomes. Let's hold our breath.

🍾 Chris Jones and Frank Clark now how to party. The sack is back!

🙏 Great news about former NFL RB Peyton Hillis. He is a hero on his way to recovery.

🔎 The most popular bets of the day. Interesting...

🔒 You know he was scoring a TD last night. Too much swag.

🤝 The Kelce brothers had quite a day. What a sick move.

🤔 Could Aaron Rodgers get traded? Sounds like it.

💰 Need DFS & betting help? Get ready for the slate with us!

💪 We'd prefer fantasy points...but this was a sick blitz pick up.

When playing DFS, we want to correlate our lineups because it means we have to get fewer things right. Tournaments have such top-heavy payout structures that when you are right, you want to be right in a big way. That’s where stacking teams and games come into play. Today, Eliot shares his favorite game to stack...

🚀Brock Purdy > Christian McCaffrey & Brandon Aiyuk (Tony Pollard bring back)

The best plays become less important on a two-game slate, while the substantial leverage opportunities become critical. Currently, on Run The Sims, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow combined for 80% of the projected rostership on the slate. This means the field is massively overexposed to the Bengals vs Bills game, leaving the Cowboys vs 49ers as a massive leverage spot, despite the total being just 3 points lower.

While the 49ers and Cowboys don’t feature two of the league's best quarterbacks, the game does feature two teams that finished top eight in total yards, and a 49ers team that has averaged 34.5 points per game with Brock Purdy under center, the most since December 3rd when he took over.

There is also enough value in the 49ers vs Cowboys game that it will allow you to play both Ja’Marr Chase and Stefon Diggs - giving you the top options in the passing game for both teams while differentiating your rosters. 

Purdy is the cheapest QB on the slate at just $5,400 on Draftkings, despite being the slate's top scorer last week.  He has a sneaky good matchup against a Cowboys defense that has been leaky in the secondary.

On December 3rd, the Cowboys lost their second corner, Anthony Brown for the season just a few weeks after losing CB Jourdan Lewis to a foot injury. Since that time they are allowing 266 yards passing per game. This would rank 31st on the season among all NFL teams, but it's even more staggering when you realize the QBs they have faced during that stretch. Davis Mills, Gardner Minshew, Joshua Dobbs, Sam Howell, Trevor Lawrence, and Tom Brady is not exactly murderers' row.

I am playing Purdy with confidence and want to take Brandon Aiyuk along with him. During that six-game stretch, WR2s have been dominating the Cowboys. 

• Chris Moore: 10-124-0
• Zay Jones: 6-109-3
• Devonta Smith: 8-113-2
• Treylon Burks: 4-66-0
• Jahan Dotson: 3-72-0
• Chris Godwin: 10-85-0

The final member of the 49ers triple stack is Christian McCaffrey, the top running back play on the slate. He currently has a ridiculous 80% rostership projection on a two-game slate, but pairing him with his QB who is projected for just 10% differentiates your roster and gives you exponential upside in McCaffrey’s receiving upside, and gives you additional stacking upside thanks to McCaffrey's robust receiving role.

Typically stacking a game with two running backs is -EV, but with the passing game upside of both McCaffrey and Tony Pollard combined with it being a two-game slate, the negative correlation concern is lessened for me. 

Pollard will face the best run defense in football, but his upside is through the air. The 49ers play heavy zone, taking away the middle of the field and forcing opponents to dump it off underneath. 

If the Cowboys move the ball effectively, Pollard's receiving ability should play a major role. 

It's playoff time, and we have you covered from a fantasy and betting perspective. We also have previews and picks for every game in our Game Hub! Bengals @ Bills, take it away, Geoff...

📺 Bengals at Bills (-6) – 49 total

The Bengals and Bills meet this week in the official rematch from their canceled game back in Week 17. Neither team looked overly impressive beating inferior divisional opponents in the Wild Card Round, but with a first playoff win under their belt, there’s potential for both of these teams to take a major step up in play in round two. 

As to which side we should be targeting, it’s hard not to like Cincinnati in this spot. Since the beginning of 2021, nobody has been better at covering as a road team than the Bengals. Cincinnati is 16-4 ATS in road starts over that span and 8-1 as away underdogs. Further, playoffs have been kind to underdogs over the past five years. The underdogs went 4-2 ATS last week and are now 40-25 ATS in playoff games since 2017.  

The Bills, meanwhile, have struggled to pay off for bettors both at home and against tougher competition. Buffalo is 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games and are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with records of .600 or better. 

This game sets up as a classic chess match between two elite teams. The Bills have an explosive offense but make a lot more mistakes than the Bengals, who have been absolutely phenomenal in playing up to their competition over the last two years.

It’s somewhat of a public play but simply taking the points at +6.0 with the Bengals feels fine in this spot. Buffalo’s more likely to win outright, but their inability to close against inferior competition makes them an untrustworthy home favorite for betting. 

📺 Cowboys @ 49ers (-4) – 46.5 total

The final game of the Divisional Round features the winners of the two biggest blowouts from Wild Card weekend.

This game has the lowest total (46.5 points) and the closest line (SF -4.0) of the entire weekend. It speaks to the strong defenses and relatively even talent across these two rosters.

In fact, these two teams have the best turnover differentials in the NFL this season, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see whichever team wins the turnover battle in this game come out ahead. 

The San Francisco offense has made the most of Christian McCaffrey’s versatile skill set since he joined the team midseason. Unsurprisingly, they have been one of the most run-heavy teams this season and should have some success against a Dallas defense that plays a bend-but-don’t-break style against the run.

The Cowboys' defense ranks in the bottom half of the league in yards allowed to opposing RBs, but is tied for the second-fewest rushing TDs allowed. 

With Deebo Samuel back to full health (more on his matchup below), the San Francisco offense should be hitting on all cylinders, which is a scary proposition for the rest of the league. The pecking order seems to be Samuel, George Kittle, then Brandon Aiyuk, but each of them has the opportunity to lead the team in a given week due to their ability to create explosive plays. 

On the Cowboys’ side, Dak Prescott played arguably his best game of the season in the Wild Card round, and a similar performance would give the Cowboys an excellent chance of advancing. They may need to rely on the passing game this week too, considering they are going up against the league’s toughest rush defense.  

Dalton Schultz was the primary beneficiary of Prescott’s big game against the Buccaneers, as he posted his second multi-TD game in the past three weeks. While Schultz will continue to be featured in the red zone, CeeDee Lamb still projects as the top pass catcher in this offense and the WR4 on the week in the Fantasy Life consensus rankings. 

The Cowboys have been discounted as contenders for much of this season due to their up-and-down play and historical lack of playoff success. However, this is a very talented roster that shouldn’t be underestimated. If they are able to force a couple of mistakes from Purdy, that could be enough to pull off the upset. 

Ultimately, home-field advantage and superior coaching make the 49ers the more likely team to win, but it is far from a sure thing. The spread has been widening throughout the week, which suggests the public is on the San Francisco side, and I look forward to finding out if that is the right call or not.

Every Sunday we'll highlight an interesting matchup you should be aware of before setting your lineup. Take it away, Sam...

🔥 Deebo Samuel vs. DAL

The NFC Divisional Round matchup between the Dallas Cowboys (12-5) and San Francisco 49ers (13-4) features two teams who both finished the regular season:

• top-six in scoring
• top-five in points allowed

Isn’t there a phrase about unstoppable forces meeting immoveable objects?

This one should be fun.

BetMGM has the 49ers at -4 with an over/under of 46.5.

The biggest storyline has been the rise of rookie QB Brock Purdy. He’s led the 49ers to the cusp of an NFC Championship appearance while throwing at least two TDs in seven straight and averaging 234 passing yards per game.

But this will be the toughest game of his career. Dallas sits just outside the top-ten in points allowed to opposing QBs (NFL DvP) and they rank fourth in total sacks. Expect them to bring the pressure against Purdy.

However, even with their strong defense, the Cowboys gave up the most passing TDs to WRs during the regular season and rank 27th against the position (NFL DvP).

WR Deebo Samuel could have himself a day and is coming off a strong performance last week.

Samuel gets an intriguing matchup with CB DaRon Bland. Last week, WR Chris Godwin squared off with Bland and went 10 for 85 on 13 targets.

CB Trevon Diggs (87% of snaps out wide) will likely matchup with WR Brandon Aiyuk (81% of snaps out wide). This will leave Bland (54% of snaps in slot) to deal with Samuel who has played 100+ snaps in three different positions (wide, slot, backfield).

It’s that dual-threat presence that makes Samuel so dangerous. He averaged 38.8 YAC per game this season which ranked behind only WR Cooper Kupp.

If Dallas wants to bring pressure, Purdy will need to get rid of the ball quickly. We know head coach Kyle Shanahan is a cheat code for his signal callers so we can expect creative play designs that get Samuel the ball in space.

Big games are made for big playmakers. Samuel will have his opportunities to shine as the 49ers look to keep their run alive.