You're not actually worried about Jamison Crowder, are you?!
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Short Squeez:
- Kicking off the Gabriel Davis debates
- The 3 biggest QB battles of the summer
- Sam vs. Cooterdoodle: Target or fade Gabriel Davis?
- Fantasy Points: WR Best Ball Tiers
- Team preview: Chicago Bears
- It’s 7/13. Take it away, Peter Overzet…
If you hang out on fantasy Twitter, you've had a front row seat to the Gabriel Davis debates.
For whatever reason, the 3rd year WR for the Bills has been a lightning rod for discussion ever since his ADP crept up into the 4th round.
In today's newsletter, we'll hear our contributors make both bull and bear cases for Davis at his current price.
One thing can't be debated, though, the guy can squat:
Gabriel Davis hype train who says no?!
(🎥: @gabedavis13_ )
— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife)
Jul 12, 2022
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⚔️ The 3 Biggest QB Battles. Get your popcorn ready for this summer. And more here on Baker Mayfield not having the job locked up.
🤔 Is Gronk bluffing? He sounds serious here, but I'm still not buying it.
🎄 How do we feel about the Texans new helmet? Looks too much like a Christmas ornament for my tastes.
🔔 CMC is the 1.01. He's just so good.
👐 The Red Zone King. He can't keep getting away with this.
📽️ Matthew's final ESPN Show. The end of an era.
Gabriel Davis is the most polarizing player in fantasy right now. We asked Cooterdoodle & Sam Wallace to debate the pros & cons of drafting Davis at his current price tag...
Sam's Opening Statement:
Talent. Despite the lack of true opportunity, Gabriel Davis has capitalized on the chances he’s had. He’s scored 13 TDs across his first two seasons and has ranked in the Top 16 in air yards/target in each of those years. He’s also formed a strong connection with Josh Allen. Since 2020 (among Bills players with at least 60 targets from Allen), Davis has the most efficient connection with Allen at 9.56 adjusted yards/attempt (Stefon Diggs is No. 4 at 8.02).
Oh, and he posted 8 receptions (10 targets) for 201 yards and 4 TDs in a road playoff game. Obviously that isn’t sustainable, but it highlights his weekly ceiling on this offense.
Opportunity. Last season, Davis didn’t play more than 52% of offensive snaps in a game until Week 14. From that point forward, he played more than 80% of snaps in each game. While it coincided with Emmanuel Sanders missing time due to injury, Davis still made the most of it. He averaged 7.7 targets and 13.4 fantasy points/game in that stretch.
Sanders is gone and Cole Beasley was replaced by another veteran slot receiver in Jamison Crowder (who apparently is battling Isaiah McKenzie for snaps). Early camp reports (full of hype) are that Davis is the clear No. 2 behind Diggs. That should cement him into a productive role.
Situation. Talent and opportunity are cornerstone pieces for any player. If you take those and add an elite situation into the mix, it’s almost unbeatable. Over the last two years, the Bills are 7th in passing plays/game. In that time, Allen is:
- QB4 in passing attempts
- QB4 in passing completions
- QB5 in passing yards
- QB4 in passing TDs
This wraps up the case for Davis. It’s a high-volume, high-octane offense with an elite QB at the helm. Davis will never draw primary coverage from opposing teams thanks to Diggs, and all signs point to a true breakout season.
Cooterdoodle's Rebuttal:
Talent. I won’t argue Davis’ talent because talent is assumed at this level of the game. But when drafting players, especially in the 4th, you expect talent to result in points on the board and this has just not been the case. In 2021, 7 of Davis’ games resulted in fewer than 5 fantasy points. Of his 4 games where he saw the field most, 2 resulted in 7 or fewer fantasy points. This is not surprising considering Davis accumulated less than 50 yards in 14 games last year. When drafting Bills players, the talent surrounding Davis is what I trust at their current ADP.
Opportunity. Let’s look at Sam’s opening line referencing Davis’ “lack of true opportunity." Opportunity matters in fantasy football. In 2021, Davis played less than 55% of snaps in 12 of his games. Within those 12 weeks, he only averaged 2 receptions per game. Although he did see a stark increase in Weeks 14-18 with 80% or more snaps, he only averaged 4 receptions in those games. In fact, three of those “big” weeks resulted in less than 45 yards. Is this the opportunistic production you hope to pay for in your drafts? Simply put: Davis being on the field more often does not translate to a safer floor.
Yes, Sanders is gone, but Sanders only saw a total of 626 yards and an average of 2.8 targets per game. And while it is likely we see Davis take on the WR2 role with Beasley gone, Beasley only saw 693 yards and 1 touchdown last season. So where is this high powered offense funneling all of its energy? Through Diggs and Dawson Knox. With Diggs and Knox on the field, Davis wears the badge of WR2 without the glory.
ADP. Davis is being drafted in the middle of the 4th round. A player with similar ADP that warrants some attention is Jerry Jeudy (Underdog ADP 47). Jeudy is also a WR2, but held a safer floor than Davis last season with a less exciting QB. With the major upgrade in Russell Wilson, I’m more comfortable with Jeudy at this price in drafts than I am taking Davis.
Ultimately what it comes down to is: Are you willing to give up a 4th round pick for a player who has inconsistent production and a low floor? I’m not, which is why I’m fading Davis at his current price. If his ADP drops before your drafts, I could see Sam’s argument for taking Davis. However, this early in my drafts I want guys that I’m not afraid to plug into my starting lineup week to week.
Our friends over at Fantasy Points have put together full positional tiers to help you in your best ball drafts. Today, Graham Barfield highlights a few players from his Tier 5, including the controversial Gabe Davis. Take it away, Graham...
💥 Brandin Cooks
Cooks is an amazing WR2 priced like a solid WR3 (his ADP is WR29; 58 overall). In Davis Mills’ starts last year, Cooks averaged 15.5 FPG – which would have made him WR16, one spot behind Jaylen Waddle (15.6 FPG). On the whole, Cooks averaged 22% more targets and put up 32% more fantasy points in Mills’ starts. We have Cooks at WR17 in our season-long projections, making him the best value on the board by far.
💥 Rashod Bateman
Bateman is going to sleepwalk to a 25% target share with Marquise Brown gone. Bateman performed well underneath Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception microscope: “Bateman posted quality success rate vs. man and zone coverage scores, checking in at the 74th and 85th percentile, respectively.” He’s appropriately priced on Underdog (ADP: WR28; 56 overall) but a screaming value on NFFC (ADP: WR34; 80 overall).
💥 Gabriel Davis
Davis is like the Bills’ version of Mike Williams – he gets a huge boost attached to Allen and a top-10 offense in terms of pass rate and pace. Davis will be second on the team in routes and an every-down player with Sanders and Beasley gone. He ranked 12th out of 90 qualifying WRs in yards gained per route run last year. He drops 8/201/4 hammers. Don’t overthink it.
❄️ DK Metcalf
Metcalf is WR25 by our projections and WR21 by ADP. I have no confidence in Drew Lock or Geno Smith. It’s probably not a good sign that all of Lock’s former Bronco teammates were way worse in fantasy with him under center.
Click here to see Graham's full set of WR tiers. Fantasy Life readers get 10% off a Fantasy Points subscription with promo code LIFE.
The season is fast approaching, which means it is time for us to get to know all of these NFL teams and who we should be drafting and fading after a busy offseason. In today's team preview, Geoff previews the Chicago Bears...
Can Justin Fields turn it around?
Justin Fields should start all 17 games this year, barring injury or another random Andy Dalton-like signing over the next month (who could forget this gem from the 2021 offseason).
QB1.
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears)
Mar 25, 2021
The backfield will again be led by David Montgomery who disappointed for the most part as a high draft pick in 2021, landing just seven TDs while rushing for just 3.8 ypc (the second time in three years he’s averaged less than 4.0 ypc).
They’ll be in a division which has been dominated by Green Bay the last couple of years but which also contains intriguing upstarts in the Lions and Vikings, who both project to have above average offenses in 2022.
As of now, MGM has the Bears slated with an over/under of 6.5 wins and to finish last in the NFC North, where their odds to win the division sit at +1100.
⚙️ Offseason changes
- Fired Matt Nagy
- Hired Matt Eberflus as Head Coach and Luke Getsy as Offensive Coordinator
- Signed WRs Byron Pringle and Equanimeous St. Brown
- Traded for WR N'Keal Harry from the Patriots
- Traded Edge Khalil Mack
- Drafted WR Velus Jones
✨ Team vibes
I kind of like the fact that everyone is expecting the Chicago Bears to be terrible. This team has the eighth easiest schedule in the NFL and a couple of new coaching hires to be excited about. Matt Eberflus may be defensive-minded, but he led an extremely effective offensive unit in Indianapolis and has also talked at length about designing the new offense around QB Justin Fields. New Offensive Coordinator Luke Getsy has also shared this same vision for the offense and talked openly about his desire to tailor his offense around the skillset of the players available to him:
“How I’ve been brought up in this business is you build it around the quarterback first, and then you tailor everything else to match what everybody else does well.”
Wow! What a novel concept. A coach who actually wants to build his team’s offense around his quarterback’s strengths. This team already seems more likeable than it was under Matt Nagy who spent three years trying to turn Mitchell Trubisky into Joe Montana.
In terms of fantasy upside, it’s likely best not to get overly high on Fields who still managed just a 58% completion rate in a West Coast offense last year. Still, this will be an entirely different scheme and one likely to be run-focused, with more play action and shots downfield. Fields averaged around 6.0 rushes per appearance last year (7.2 rushes per start) but there were almost no designed runs baked into Matt Nagy’s scheme. Projecting Fields for more volume and far more efficient rushing totals in 2022 is something I’m very comfortable doing. There is definitely untapped potential in this area with a player who ran a 4.44 sec 40 out of college and the new coaching staff seems to recognize this from their interviews.
The Bears also have the speed necessary on the outside to take advantage of the space that an increased rushing threat from Fields will open up. Darnell Mooney ranked fourth in yards per reception last season among all players with 80 or more catches, an incredible stat considering the Bears QB play was overtly terrible in 2021.
The Bears may not be world beaters in 2022, but they do have the potential to surprise. For fantasy purposes, their underperformance under Matt Nagy over the past few years have led to everyone having hesitation over trusting their best players and that’s something I’m fully on board with taking advantage of, especially at the QB and WR position.
🎯Draft targets
- QB Justin Fields (Underdog ADP 123.1, QB16)
- TE Cole Kmet (Underdog ADP 134.2, TE13)
- WR Darnell Mooney (Underdog ADP 57.3, WR28)
👋Draft fades
- RB David Montgomery (Underdog ADP 52.4, RB20)
Well yesterday was something else. Wow. Can’t tell you how much everyone’s kind words and support mean to me. Seriously. You have no idea. All the tweets, DM’s, calls, emails and texts. I’m reading every single one them. Love you all.
— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR)
Jul 12, 2022
