🙌 The News We Needed To Hear

Can I interest you in a coinflip for home field advantage?...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Public Rec:

• Damar Hamlin makes big strides
  
• JMToWin's Week 18 DFS Tips
• Geoff's Bets: A couple TEs
  
• Playoff Best Ball Strategy
• It's 1/6. Take it away, Peter Overzet...

What a difference a day can make. 

After a rough Wednesday, yesterday was filled with incredible news surrounding Damar Hamlin's recovery.

A pair of UC physicians spoke via Zoom call for almost an hour yesterday afternoon and delivered a handful of updates surrounding improvements in his condition. A few highlights:

• He's awake, responsive, and moving both his hands and feet
• He's been communicating with doctors and family via writing on a clipboard
• His neurological condition and function is intact

The best nugget to come out? Hamlin had the same question as all of us. Who won the Bills/Bengals game?

Doctors said after Damar Hamlin awakened last night, he asked in writing who won the game. Doctors told him: “Yes, you won. You’ve won the game of life.”

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter)
Jan 5, 2023

The NFL later clarified that question for all of us, officially announcing that that Bills-Bengals game will not be resumed and has been cancelled. A special league meeting will be held today to determine the best way to handle the playoff ramifications from this decision.

As for the Bills, these positive updates have provided a much needed wind in their sails. The locker room was buzzing after Damar's dad addressed the team yesterday. Even President Joe Biden got in the mix. 

Good to see some smiles coming from Bills practice. Today’s update from Drs was uplifting

— Josh Reed (@4JoshReed)
Jan 5, 2023

For the first time all week, I can't wait for Sunday:

The scene at Highmark Stadium with Bills fans on Sunday is going to be insane.

— Joe Buscaglia (@JoeBuscaglia)
Jan 5, 2023

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JMToWin is a founder/developer of One Week Season, where we focus not only on preparing you for each unique slate, but also on teaching you the strategies and theories behind winning DFS play. Our team has millions of dollars in net DFS profit, and each week we strive to build the OWS Fam into a leaderboard-crashing unit. Become a part of the OWS Fam with OWS Free!

We crave certainty.

It's a natural part of being human.

We like to know that our job is secure, that our finances are secure, and that our relationships are secure.

We like to know that big decisions are behind us and that the decisions ahead of us are clearly laid-out. But if there is one thing the last few years have taught us all, it's that uncertainty is a constant. We never know what's around the next corner — and sometimes, we may not even know what's underfoot.

While a world full of certainty would be wonderful, that isn't the world we inhabit — and what better way to celebrate the ubiquitous nature of uncertainty than by playing Week 18 DFS(!).

Last season, D'Ernest Johnson was given 25 carries by the Browns in Week 18 while Nick Chubb was active. Danny Amendola went 7-113-2 for the Texans in his first game action in six weeks, while playing only 30 snaps. Russell Gage scored over 30 DraftKings points for the Falcons after scoring 10.4 or fewer in three of his previous four games.

Whose turn is it this year? What crazy things might happen?

Here are a few spots I'm keeping an eye on as we head into the weekend.

⭐ Corey Davis, Superstar

Across his last three healthy games, Corey Davis is averaging 7.67 targets per game, and if we take only the two games with Mike White under center, he's averaging four catches for 65 yards on eight targets per game.

One of those games came against an unbelievably underrated Seattle secondary (top three in basically every category against wide receivers this year), while this week's matchup is coming against a Dolphins team that ranks sixth in DVOA (Football Outsiders) against the run, but 25th against the pass. In the final week of the regular season, our competition tends to think of the "young guys who might see a bump in playing time," but Davis is more in line with the players who unexpectedly blew up in Week 18 last year: veteran guys who shined as the season wound down.

🏴‍☠️️ Buccaneers, Super Bowl Contenders

Okay, so the Bucs probably aren't Super Bowl contenders, but that's not how they'll see things inside their building.

In order for the Bucs to go on a run, it's probably more important for them to continue finding their form than it is for them to grab some extra rest — and this game comes with the added bonus that sportsbooks are expecting starters to play only a portion of the game, with the Bucs installed as four-point underdogs to the Falcons.

The low implied team total will chase projection systems and most DFS players away from this spot, opening a potential gold mine if the Bucs decide to play this game to win.

💎 It's Not All About The Hidden Gems

DFS players often make the mistake in the final week of the regular season of "getting too cute" — forgetting that there are elite players on elite teams with everything to play for. One such team is the Eagles, whose two-game losing streak with Gardner Minshew under center has left them in need of a win in the final week of the season to lock up the 1 seed (and the corresponding first-round bye) that looked like a foregone conclusion a month ago.

With Jalen Hurts looking likely to return for a matchup against a Giants team that could be resting several key starters, a blowup game from the Eagles' offense is very much within the realm of reasonable possibilities.

🧩 The Final Piece

And, of course, the final piece of the puzzle in the last week of the season is almost always this: Uncertainty is a constant.

Those who keep an eye on things and remain willing to adjust through kickoff of the late games are often best positioned to succeed.

I'll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM

🔥 Damar's GoFundMe is on fire. What a run.

📅 Playoff scenarios heading into Week 18. A comprehensive rundown.

🚧 NFL LEGO highlights? NFL LEGO highlights.

🚑 A star WR works on his return. Get healthy, kid.

🔮 A funny Jags story. Does Doug have a crystal ball?

🤔 Did the Giants change their mind? It sounds like it.

🙌 This man deserves some praise. Thank you, sir.

🏈 Week 18 Preview. Marcas & Dwain do their best to get you through this week. 

In between placing waiver claims and setting our lineups, we do a little sports betting around here. Today Geoff is here to give you his three best bets of the week. All odds from our friends at BetMGM.

💰 Austin Hooper Under 24.5 receiving yards

We’ll get right to the point on this one. This is a big total for a TE in Hooper who has played under 50% of the snaps in three straight games and been out-produced by a fourth round rookie Chigoziem Okonkwo now in two of his last three starts.

Even in a decent matchup, Hooper’s projection on Fantasy Life still has him going under this mark by more than a yard, and there’s every chance that Tennessee goes with a severe run-heavy game script that sees Josh Dobbs top out at 20 or passes. 

This one’s good for a small play on Saturday.

💰 Travis Kelce over 74.5 receiving yards

On the complete flip-side of the tight-end spectrum we have Travis Kelce, who plays one of his favorite teams this week in the Raiders. Kelce has gone over this total in six of his last eight meetings with Vegas and also gone over this total in nine of 16 games this year. 

The game script this week for the Chiefs should include a no-nonsense approach given what is at stake (likely a number one seed) which means targeting Kelce early and often against a defense that ranks dead last in defensive pass DVOA. 

Kelce has a strong projection on Fantasy Life this week that has him going for over 77.0 yards, giving us a nice edge to exploit with an over on his yardage prop.

💰 Chargers @ Broncos over 40 points

By all reports, the Chargers will be playing for the win this week and not resting their starters. That makes this a curiously low total considering how much regression we’ve seen from Denver on the defensive side of the ball. 

The Broncos gave up an 84% completion rate to Baker Mayfield two weeks ago and have ceded 78 points over the last two weeks alone. Denver’s also been chewed up by opposing RBs in the passing game this season and now face “the people’s champ” and one of the most effective backfield receivers in the game in Austin Ekeler.

Promises made by @AustinEkeler… promises kept. @NBCSEdgeFB

— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR)
Jan 2, 2023

Both of these teams rank in the top 12 in situation-neutral pace of play and should have their starting offenses on the field for most if not all of the game. Given the Broncos offense also showed some signs of life last week – scoring 24 points while mixing in fresh bodies like Chase Edmonds and Albert Okwuegbunam well – the over looks like a solid play.

The season-long fantasy season is winding down, but Playoff best ball is HEATING up on Underdog Fantasy! One of our resident best ball bros is here to discuss the finer points of playoff strategy. Take it away, Jonathan...

👷‍♂️ Team Stacking

Team stacking is even more important in playoff best ball than regular season best ball. I always want to make sure I have 2-3 other players from the same team as each QB that I draft.

Since the goal is making it to the final round and fielding a full roster in the Super Bowl, you can’t draft to win without stacking. It is also much more viable to stack QB-RB in playoff best ball, even if the RB doesn’t catch passes. 

As the playoff picture becomes clearer, we can also incorporate more matchup specific information. I will usually try to avoid drafting players on teams who face each other in Round 1 because it guarantees a portion of my roster will be eliminated in the first round. However, I am absolutely willing to break that for a great ADP value or a player combination that I think gives me an excellent chance to advance from that first round.

👷‍♂️ Understand ADP Values

Another advantage we can get on our opponents is looking for teams that are under-drafted relative to their playoff odds. Personally, I like to reference the FiveThirtyEight Playoff Probabilities and BetMGM odds for Super Bowl and Division winners. The teams that stand out to me as being underpriced relative to their odds are the Jaguars and Buccaneers, who both have 70+% chances to make the playoffs but are available at the very end of drafts. It can also be fun to take longer shots like the Lions, Packers, and Panthers if you understand the high-risk nature of that strategy and are drafting a large portfolio of teams.

Don't worry, we'll be diving deeper into team-specific strategies next week!

The second part of understanding ADP values is being familiar with which player combinations are easier to get vs which ones are more rare.

Players who go in the first round, like Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, are nearly impossible to pair together, while a combo such as Jalen Hurts and AJ Brown is possible but not always available. Understanding how draft boards usually play out is extremely valuable so you can recognize and capitalize on unique situations when they do occur.

One of the more difficult parts of drafting for playoff best ball tournaments is deciding at what point you draft a better player over one who is a better structural fit.

While I usually favor the structural drafting side, there is a point at which a player with a high ceiling for Round 1 is more valuable than a deep-depth piece on a team that I am stacking.

For example, rotational wide receivers on great teams like Isaiah McKenzie and Quez Watkins are drafted in a similar range to stud WRs on teams that don’t appear to be Super Bowl contenders, such as Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. The correct answer on who to take late in drafts comes down to the rest of your roster and whether a unique, correlated piece for the later rounds is more valuable than a one-off player who is just there to help you advance from Round 1.

Ultimately, many of the high-level strategies that we use for season-long best ball still apply to the playoff contests, and we just have to think about them a little bit differently. As long as you stick to the strategies discussed in this article, you are giving yourself a chance to draft a big winner.

To improve your odds even more, be sure to check out our next playoff best ball blurb that digs into which teams are being under and over-drafted and which specific stacks are most likely to help you take down one of these tournaments.