⛏️ The Player Who Is Breaking Fantasy

by Peter Overzet

2 years ago

Imagine if Davante Adams shoved Randy Johnson...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Public Rec:

Taysom Hill has flipped the fantasy landscape on its head
Week 6: Rankings & Tiers
Davante Adams facing charges
TNF: Fantasy & Betting Picks
Bets from the group chat: Three bets to make
It's 10/13. Take it away, Peter Overzet

Alright, we need to have a talk about Taysom Hill.

The Saints' hybrid QB/RB/TE moved to the TE3 on the year after he popped off for 34.1 PPR points on Sunday.

Not only was he the highest-scoring TE in Week 5 (an insane feat considering Travis Kelce found the endzone four times), but he was the fourth-highest-scoring player on the entire slate behind only Austin Ekeler, Leonard Fournette, and Josh Allen.

The performance has seemingly broken both fantasy scoring and the minds of fantasy managers who are now tripping over themselves to add Hill on the waiver.

Taysom Hill isn’t a Konami code. He’s a Kama Sutra code because he can score at any position.
— cooterdoodle (@cooterdoodle)
Oct 10, 2022

I hate to be a wet blanket to this enthusiasm (jk, I love to be a buzzkill), but we need to be realistic about what we can expect from Taysom. Here's his box score for the season (he was inactive in Week 3):

He's a TE averaging 0.2 catches per game and got it done on Sunday thanks to absurdly efficient usage on the ground (112 yards and 3 TDs on only 9 carries).

The harsh reality is that anything close to this production is highly unsustainable, and we must manage our expectations accordingly.

All that said, he does have a few things going for him. For starters, none of the Saints WRs—Michael Thomas (toe), Chris Olave (concussion), and Jarvis Landry (ankle)—practiced yesterday, so there certainly could be some touches up for grabs in the offense this weekend vs. the Bengals.

But the real selling point for Hill is his TE eligibility at a desolate wasteland of a position. For a simple flow chart on whether you have a green light to start Hill, simply ask yourself these two questions:

1) Do I have a top-8 (or so) TE? ➡️ If not, you can start Taysom.

2) Do I have a fringe top-12 TE, and I'm a heavy underdog in my matchup? ➡️ If so, you can start Taysom.

Outside of Kelce and Mark Andrews, all of the TEs have either scary floors (capable of zeros) or no ceiling at all (incapable of scoring more than 15).

So in those two scenarios above, you have a green light to shoot for the moon. Just know that if you miss with Taysom you aren't landing among the stars.

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It is time to make those tough lineup decisions for Week 5, and Dwain has you covered with in-depth player tiers, rankings, and analysis. Here are a few of his favorites for Week 5:

McCaffrey has a tough matchup on the surface. Yes, the Rams have the No. 1 graded PFF run defense (82.5), but they play the most zone coverage in the NFL (84.6%).

Targets are often spread out against zone-centric teams, and the RBs and TEs get a boost in these scenarios. When you are a receiving superhero like CMC, that can be the difference between a great target share game and an out-of-this-world one. McCaffrey’s target share against man coverage is 18% but balloons to 25% against zone defense.

Last week, CMC had 11 targets against the third-heaviest zone team (78%) in the 49ers. Look for a similar performance in Week 6.

I ranked Singletary well above consensus last weekend based on his huge Week 3 and Week 4 utilization numbers. However, they led the Steelers by four-plus points on 95% of plays, leading to larger roles for James Cook and Zack Moss.

We should see a much more competitive game against the Chiefs this week. The current spread is only three points, and the game offers monster point potential with a 54-point total.

When the Bills are within three points or trailing by four-plus points, Singletary has a 77% snap share. He has also been much more involved in the passing game in those situations, with a 19% target share.

Once again, I have Singletary ahead of expert consensus rankings.

He is a SMASH play in Week 6 against Kansas City.

Brown has three top-12 finishes in the last three games and averages 23.5 points per game. He has a 26% target share on the season (15th) and should be in line for another heavy workload against the Seahawks in Week 6.

Seattle has the second-worst PFF coverage grade (42), allowing the eighth-most points to pass catchers (58.1). However, the Seahawks' offense can push opponents to keep scoring, ranking sixth in drives converted to TDs (28%). The Cardinals have the second-most implied points on the slate in a game with the second-highest total.

Brown is a SMASH play as a top-six WR option in Week 6.

Lockett is averaging 19.7 points per game over the last four contests with an eye-popping 29% target share. The Seahawks face a Cardinals secondary with the worst PFF receiving grade (36.8) that allows 60 points per game (sixth) to pass catchers in non-overtime play.

Arizona plays zone on 70% of plays, per PFF data, which also bodes well for Lockett, whose target share jumps from 20% against man to 29% against zone – a multi-year trend for the Seahawks. The speedy slot option torched the Cardinals for 480 yards and six TDs over the last four matchups.

The game projects as a shootout with the No.2 game total (50.5) and a top-eight implied point total (24).

Lockett is a SMASH play in Week 6.

Dwain's full rankings and tiers article & All of the Fantasy Life Rankings

⚖️ Will Davante Adams be suspended? He has a court date coming up.

⭐ Don't forget about this WR. Now, this is how you announce your return.

🤒 If I'm a defensive end, I'm trying this on Joe Burrow. Dude was rattled.

📈 The Utilization Report is LIVE & in living color. Find out who Dwain thinks is about to break out.

😎 This WR is low-key having a breakout season. Find out why he's the seventh-best graded WR so far.

🏓 The correlation between ping pong and losing games? The Dolphins are testing it.

🎲 Fun game: What other players could Arthur Smith ruin?! Sounds like a nightmare.

📷 You won't believe who is now an NFL photographer. Seriously, this is wild.

It's not the game we want. It's not the game we deserve. And yet it's the game we're going to get tonight.

Get your popcorn ready because the Bears are hosting the Commanders as 1-point home favorites in a matchup with a truly offensive 38-point over/under. Maybe I shouldn't be so glib, underpromise and overdeliver, right?

Here's everything we like tonight from a fantasy, DFS, and betting perspective:

Our research for these plays comes from, Run the Sims, Props.cash (Use promo code LIFE to save 20% on your subscription), PFF, OWS, and the Fantasy Life Rankings, Start/Sit tool, and Player Props tool.

Our resident betting sharps at Fantasy Life have a group chat. Lucky for you, they are leaking the alpha. Here's what our CEO Eliot came up with for this week...All odds via BetMGM

Through five games, Curtis Samuel leads Washington with 45 targets, 12 more than the next closet player. He has had 5+ catches in four of five games. His low aDot of three yards leads to plenty of easy-catch opportunities, which should continue against the Bears on Thursday.

He has a fantastic matchup against Bears corner Kyler Gordon, who has been a popular target for opposing offenses. Gordon has been targeted in the slot 24 times and he's allowed 23 catches on the season.

Samuel’s prop line is simply too low with heavy volume in an elite matchup. We have him projected for 5.52 catches in this one.

While everyone focuses on how bad the offenses are for both of these teams, it is important not to lose sight of how bad the defenses are as well.

Through five weeks, Washington has been the second-worst team in the NFL against opposing WRs, with the opponent's top receivers dominating them to the tune of 9.2 targets and 92 yards per game.

Mooney is the unquestioned top receiver for the Bears, earning 41% of the team's air yards and 24% of the targets.

With an elite matchup, it makes sense that Mooney’s over is the biggest edge bet per our newly updated player prop tool.

Believe the hype, it is George Pickens season yall.

After seeing 33% of the target share in Kenny Pickett’s debut, Pickens followed up with 83 yards on eight targets against the top-ranked Bills defense last week.

This Steelers team is not shy about airing it out, throwing the ball on 76.4% of plays last week in their blowout. They come into this game as 8-point home underdogs and project to have to pass again heavily on Sunday against the Buccaneers.

So far this season, Pickens has been the clear-cut WR2 for the Steelers. It's a role that has plagued the Buccaneers, who have allowed 69 yards per game to WR2 (the fourth-most). Look for Pickens to remain heavily involved in this one and sail over his total.

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