The Playoff Team That Deserves To Lose

Not even the Chargers' social media team can save Brandon Staley...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Bud Light:

• Brandon Staley is a donkey
  
• Geoff's Bets: Bills, Giants, and Cowboys
  
• Fantasy Fixers: Houston Texans
• Playoff Best Ball Strategy: The AFC
• Wild Card Preview w/ Marcas & Dwain
• It's 1/13. Take it away, Peter Overzet...

Are you ready to get worked up? Because I'm about to get you worked up.

Chargers WR Mike Williams hasn't practiced all week and will be a game-time decision vs. the Jaguars on Saturday.

This wouldn't be that upsetting except for the fact that Williams, who already missed five games this season with a high ankle sprain, injured his back in a meaningless game against the Broncos last week.

Anytime you can start your star WR who has been injured off and on all year in a meaningless loss to the Broncos you gotta do it amirite? twitter.com/profootballtal…

— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR)
Jan 12, 2023

Now the Chargers head on the road to face a red-hot Jacksonville team potentially without a key contributor because...well, I'm not sure why.

After the Broncos game, Staley hemmed and hawed about why he played Williams. His response was hardly convincing and could best be described as a verbal shrug.

But it doesn't end there. No, no, no. We're about to get even more worked up. Here's what Staley said about Williams' chances to play this weekend after not practicing all week:

Brandon Staley says Mike Williams will travel with the team and he's officially questionable for the game.

"The reps aren't what matter the rest is."

— Bridget Condon (@BridgetCondon_)
Jan 12, 2023

Lmaooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.

Is this guy serious? Unreal.

It's cute that the Chargers have been keeping receipts this season, but the call is coming from inside the house. Jags by a million.

🐬 Are the Dolphins nervous? You be the judge.

🏟️ The potential KC-BUF AFC Championship game has a location. Dome game, baby.

💰 Takeaways from every Wild Card Matchup. You should click this. 

🥊 NFL Twitter beef. The dude has a point.

💸 Do you have the stones to bet against Tom Brady? History says you should be worried.

🏬 Did Cleveland look into a return policy? They should.

✈️ An intriguing landing spot for Aaron Rodgers. This will be good.

👋 Derek Carr says goodbye. Classy note.

🤨 The Ravens have been a mess. But is this RB a value? 

In between placing waiver claims and setting our lineups, we do a little sports betting around here. Today Geoff is here to give you his three best bets of the week. All odds from our friends at BetMGM.

💰 Bills -13

Matchup aside, everything is working against Miami right now. They’ve been forced into starting Skylar Thompson at quarterback, who has averaged 4.92 yards per pass attempt in his two starts this year and have a laundry list of key injuries.  Raheem Mostert is doubtful after breaking his thumb, backup RB Jeff Wilson Jr. has missed time this week with an illness, and OT Terron Armstead is also highly questionable. 

The Bills have scored less than 28.0 points just twice over their last eight games and put up 32 against Miami back in Week 15. Miami’s pass defense ranks just 25th in defensive pass DVOA and allowed Josh Allen to throw for four red zone TDs in their last meeting. 

As long as this spread stays under the key number of 14.0, the Bills remain the play.

💰 Richie James Jr. o4.5 receptions (+110)

Despite starting the year well down the depth chart, Richie James Jr. now finds himself in a near every-down role for the Giants. He’s taken an elite 26% team target share over his last four games and was also instrumental in the Giants' near comeback against the Vikings in Week 15, grabbing eight receptions for 90 yards. 

James has been one of the most reliable receivers in the league and ultimately ended the year converting 81.4% of his targets into catches, which was first among WRs. 

A nice Richie James stat

— Talkin’ Giants (@TalkinGiants)
Jan 1, 2023

Considering Minnesota’s potent offense will likely help push the pace, the plus money available to go over 4.5 receptions for James looks entirely bettable. Despite his lack of name recognition, he’s an important cog for the Giants and has seen elite usage numbers toward the end of the season.

💰 Dalton Schultz anytime TD (+210)

This week's match-up should give Dalton Schultz a great shot at finding the end zone. The Buccaneers weren’t as efficient against the pass as they were against the run this season and were especially hurt by TEs in the red zone, allowing the fifth-most TDs to the position this year. 

Tampa’s last five games have seen TEs named Tommy Tremble, Mitchell Wilcox, and MyCole Pruitt all score against them. Plus, Schultz, for the season, ranked just one behind CeeDee Lamb for the team lead in red-zone targets. With Schultz producing four multi-TD games over the past two seasons, thinking about ladder betting his anytime TD line with his two or more TD prop at +1600 isn’t a poor idea either. This is a great upside spot for him against the 26th-ranked red-zone defense in the league. 

The NFL offseason will be in full swing before we know it, with coaching changes, free agency and the NFL draft reshaping the 2023 fantasy football landscape. With that in mind, the Fantasy Life squad is breaking down every NFL team to determine what went wrong in 2022 and identify paths to improvement.  Dwain is here to tackle the Texans...

😢 Team Summary

Any way we slice the 2022 season for the Texans, things were bad. Really bad.

The team finished with a record of 3-13-1 and ranked at or near the bottom of the league across multiple key offensive and defensive statistics.

This team isn’t going to be a quick fix. We are likely looking at a multiple-year rebuild before the Texans compete at a high level. However, with the right coaching hire, they could surprise us similarly to Brian Daboll with an underperforming Giants roster.

Unfortunately, their win in Week 18 over Indianapolis knocked Houston down to the No. 2 selection in the NFL draft. Coincidingly, the Colts’ loss pushed them up to the No. 4 pick, putting the team in striking distance to trade up with Chicago to take a QB.

On the bright side, the Texans have five selections in the first three rounds, including an additional first-rounder (12th) and third-rounder (73rd) from the Browns in the Deshaun Watson trade. 

They also have the eight-most estimated cap room at $40M, which could grow with their second-highest cap player – Brandin Cooks – making it known he would like to be traded this offseason.

From a fantasy perspective, we don’t have to wait for a complete rebuild to find value on the Texans' roster in 2023. We just need them to get a few things right this offseason to provide new paths to value.

🚧 Fantasy Fixer Recommendations

🎯 Draft a QB Early

Just the hard-hitting type of analysis you were waiting for, huh? It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand that QB is the most crucial position in football, and Houston needs an upgrade. 

Davis Mills ranked 25th out of 32 passers with at least 300 dropbacks in PFF passing grade (63.6) and 29th in QB rating (76.8). He also struggled to accurately target his receivers, with only 59% of his passes deemed catchable.

Alabama’s Bryce Young is the consensus top option across big boards and mock drafts, but C.J. Stroud from Ohio State follows closely behind. Will Levis out of Kentucky and Anthony Richardson aren’t as highly graded, but the position's value is pushing them inside the top 10 in mocks over the past two weeks.

Young and Stroud are highly decorated collegiate passers, while Levis and Richardson are projections based on their tools. The Texans might not get the top-rated QB on their board if another team trades up to No. 1, but they will have a shot at one of the top-two options.

While we won’t likely target the Texans’ rookie QB next season in fantasy drafts, the upgrade opens up possibilities elsewhere on offense – especially if the Texans can also secure a high-end receiver in the draft.

🚫 Avoid RB in the Draft

With so many needs, the Texans need to focus their picks on positions with more importance than RB in the first three rounds of the draft. Look, we love RBs here – we are a fantasy-first operation. However, the Texans already have a quality back on the team.

Dameon Pierce played at tremendous levels in his rookie season – it appears the Texans might have hit a home run with their fourth-round selection from the 2022 draft. Out of 43 RBs with at least 150 attempts, Pierce ranked highly across multiple metrics.

Pierce came in half of a percent lower than the NFL average of 10.5% in 10-plus yard attempts but overall enjoyed a very successful campaign. Remember, the Texans had a non-existent ground game in 2021 – ranking last in yards per game and yards per carry. Pierce drastically improved the RB room.

Pierce delivered an RB2-worthy TPRR of 19% but wasn’t fully unleashed on passing downs. His usage in the two-minute offense expanded as the season went on, but he only played 12% of long-down and distance situations. The Texans can get more out of him in this capacity – he deserves a shot to handle an every-down role, which would make him an RB1 candidate.

Of course, if the Texans ignore our advice and draft an RB in the first three rounds, it will be a dramatic hit to Pierce’s prospects. We have seen this play out over and over through the years (Michael Carter, James Robinson, etc.). A high-performing RB without draft capital is a fragile commodity.

The season-long fantasy season is in the rear view, but Playoff best ball is HEATING up on Underdog Fantasy! One of our resident best ball bros is here to discuss the finer points of playoff strategy. Take it away, Jonathan...

The AFC provides an interesting problem for drafters with two of the three Wild Card Weekend matchups with a spread of more than a touchdown. This perceived certainty is reflected in draft costs with a clear top three teams in terms of Conference Championship odds and ADP in Underdog Fantasy playoff best ball contests. 

When drafting players from the AFC, you will really have to pay up for the elite options, but this does create opportunities to build contrarian lineups. Let’s take a look at each team and think through who is overpriced, who is underpriced, and who can help you win one of these tournaments.

I like to look at these probabilities and compare them to the ADPs of each team in each conference to try to identify values. The table below shows some of this data for the AFC playoff teams.

🍖 Kansas City

The top seed is only the third most expensive to stack (in terms of average ADP of the four highest drafted players), which reflects the fact that they can’t help you advance from Round 1. Regardless, this may be a market mispricing considering the Chiefs are Super Bowl favorites. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are both top 10 picks, but there are also several Chiefs available after pick 40 who are capable of putting up big performances in a game. 

Since they have the bye, you will have to take a second QB when stacking the Chiefs, so keep that in mind when considering which teams you want to draft on the NFC side. Taking players from the 49ers and Cowboys to pair with the Chiefs sounds great on paper until you get boxed out entirely at QB and have to take an unstacked option just to have a chance of advancing. 

In my opinion, both Isiah Pacheco and Kadarius Toney are values with their ADP after pick 40, and I have frequently drafted those two as a secondary stack. The rest of the Kansas City offense appears fairly valued and should have meaningful exposure in any playoff best ball portfolio.

🐃 Buffalo

The Bills might be disappointed to have missed out on the #1 seed, but that actually makes them more valuable in these contests due to their ability to help you advance from Round 1. You also get additional roster flexibility if you draft Josh Allen because you can stick to just one QB, while the other QBs who go in the first round of drafts (Mahomes and Hurts) both have a bye and require you to take a second QB. 

Given their ADPs, there will be tons of teams that have the Allen to Gabe Davis stack, while close to no one will have the Allen to Stefon Diggs stack.

Keep that in mind when drafting your Bills stacks, and be sure to take players in the later rounds who can differentiate your team if the Bills make the Super Bowl and your team makes the final round. James Cook is my highest rostered RB across all Underdog playoff contests, and I think he is a great value going a full round behind Devin Singletary despite the usage and production trends favoring Cook to end the year.

🐅 Cincinnati

Surprisingly, the Bengals have become the most expensive AFC team to stack (again, using the average ADP of the four highest-drafted players). One of the most common starts at the Round 1-2 turn in drafts is grabbing Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Burrow. Similar to the Bills, it is important to think through how you can create a unique roster for the final round should you get a Burrow-Chase team to that point. 

The nice thing about stacking Cincinnati is they have good options at all different points in the draft. Chase and Burrow are high-end selections, while Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon both go in the third round of drafts per their ADP. Tyler Boyd usually goes in the round 5-6 range, and then Hayden Hurst, Samaje Perine, and Trenton Irwin are all players available at the end of the draft who have shown a high weekly ceiling at different points this season.

⚡ Los Angeles

The Chargers are in their own tier for Conference Championship odds, sandwiched between the favorites (KC/BUF/CIN) and the longshots (BAL/JAX/MIA).

The ADP of their players reflects this and makes them an interesting proposition in playoff best ball contests. I view their matchup with the Jaguars as essentially a 50/50 game, so I believe the Jags offer much better value in drafts, but that doesn’t mean I want to avoid the Chargers altogether.

If you are taking NFC players early, LA provides a nice option in the middle rounds to get an AFC stack with a good chance at playing multiple games. 

Austin Ekeler often goes with a top-15 pick, but you can get Keenan Allen and Justin Herbert in the middle of your draft and pair them with a late-round pick like Josh Palmer or Gerald Everett to complete the stack.

The unknown for this team is whether or not Mike Williams will play after injuring his lower back in Week 18. If he is available, he could be a steal for those that draft him this week at a suppressed ADP.

🐦 Baltimore

I don’t really understand how the Ravens have better Conference Championship odds than the Jaguars, but I’ll talk about that more in the Jacksonville blurb.

Recent line movement and these tweets from Lamar Jackson suggest he will be out again this week, which deals a major blow to the Ravens' chances of advancing or providing much value in Round 1. Both Mark Andrews and J.K. Dobbins are still being drafted and could help you advance simply on garbage time production. With their ADPs now after pick 50, you don’t have to pay up to get some projectable volume for the first round, a very valuable asset on rosters with the Eagles or Chiefs.

🐆 Jacksonville

In my opinion, the Jaguars are the most underrated team in both Conference Championship odds and ADP, so I have been hammering them in drafts.

Their ADPs are slowly rising, but with just a few days left until contests close, I expect them to remain a value until the end. We saw that this offense could put up big games down the stretch, and they face a very beatable Chargers team in the Wild Card round. You can read more about my thoughts on this matchup in the Fantasy Life Game Hub.

In drafts, Travis Etienne, Trevor Lawrence, and Christian Kirk have been creeping up the ADP list, but Zay Jones and Evan Engram are routinely available in the last round of drafts and have just as high of a weekly upside as Kirk. I believe this is a team that can win a game or two in the playoffs, and having them as a secondary stack is one of my favorite ways to close out the last few rounds of drafts.

🐬 Miami

Another team that will be without its starting QB is the Dolphins, who may be starting Skylar Thompson again this week.

With the spread at nearly two touchdowns, nobody gives Miami a shot in this game, and the expectation is that they will struggle to move the ball and put up points.

You have to be extremely bold to consider stacking the Dolphins, but they can make for interesting one-off picks at the end of drafts to help you advance out of Round 1. We know Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are capable of creating a huge play from nothing, and Jeff Wilson is also interesting due to the fact that he projects for a good role, with Raheem Mostert trending towards missing this game with a thumb injury.

You shouldn’t expect the Dolphins to give you anything more than one week of production, but as long as you draft with that understanding, they are worth adding to the end of a few rosters.

🤝 Favorite teams to pair: CIN & JAX

I love the upside that comes from stacking these two teams and the many different combinations of players from these teams that I feel good leaving a draft with.

Most often, I will use these two teams as my secondary stacks, opposite from a primary stack in the NFC, but I have also experimented with AFC-heavy lineups built around a Joe Burrow or Trevor Lawrence stack and players from these two teams.

Cincinnati has three players drafted in the top 15 picks by ADP, while the Jaguars are mostly selected after pick 40. This makes these two teams natural complements to each other in drafts and allows you to pivot off of the Bills and Chiefs and play for upsets in the AFC bracket.

🐆 Best Values: Jacksonville

This comes down to my belief that the Jaguars should be close to the Chargers for Conference Championship odds but are much, much lower.

With all of their players available in round 7 or later of most drafts, I routinely find myself coming back to Jacksonville stacks as the best value on the board. They offer a high Round 1 ceiling, a good chance of playing at least two games, and are the longest-odds team that I could realistically see making a run to the Super Bowl if they continue to play at the high level that enabled them to win six of their last seven games in the regular season.