Hide your moms and bench your Jets WRs, Zach Wilson is back, baby!!!
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Bud Light:
- Sorry Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore managers...
- Rankings Update. Charged Up!!!
- Dear (Dr.) Cooter. Everything is code for RB1.
- Bets from the group chat. Lets get UL-tra-RICH with Geoff.
- Game Previews. Saturday Football, y'all!!!
- DFS Building Blocks from OWS
- Its 12/17. Take it away, Dwain McFarland...
We had a good thing going with Mike White. The Jets' offense was suddenly a safe place for WR fantasy production., with the fifth-year QB averaging 317 yards passing, dropping back 43 times per game.
Of course, this wasn't the first time for us to see a pass-heavy Jets offense. Joe Flacco led a similar attack for the first three games of the season, averaging 300 yards.
Basically, when anyone is under center other than Zach Wilson, the Jets run a different offense.
#Jets pass rate with Zach Wilson: 52%
#Jets pass rate with Mike White/Joe Flacco: 69%
— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS)
Dec 16, 2022
Unfortunately, White was ruled out by the team doctors despite his quest to find someone to clear him.
Fantasy managers were salivating over New York's upside this weekend against a Lions defense with the third-worst PFF coverage grade, allowing 276 passing yards per game in non-overtime play.
Unfortunately, that mouth-watering sensation has turned into dry heaves.
Out of 33 QBs with at least 200 dropbacks this season, Wilson ranks dead-ass last in PFF pass grade (44.2). He has passing totals of 252, 210, 110, 121, 355, 154 and 76 yards. We are in Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield territory here.
We must act accordingly with the Jets WR corps.
↘️ Garrett Wilson
Wilson is a budding superstar, but Zach Wilson reduces his upside and lowers his floor. The rookie WR took over a starting role in Week 7 and played in four games with the second-year QB before White took over.
The first-round draft pick averaged 21.5 points per game with White, including two top-10 finishes. His low-point total was 13.8, and his high was 26.4.
Wilson could still come through in a great matchup, but he falls out of the top 12 WRs and is a boom-bust WR2 for Week 15.
⬇️ Elijah Moore
Moore has quietly increased his role over the past two games, with route participation marks of 74% and 92%. With Corey Davis (concussion) ruled out this weekend, he should play a full-time role.
However, we have seen Moore in a lead role with Wilson under center for three games already this season. From Week 4 to Week 6, the second-year WR posted 8.5, 2.1 and 0 fantasy points.
The 2021 second-rounder was a low-end WR3 with upside to begin the week, now he falls into WR4 territory.
🍻 For the fans, y'all. Happy fantasy football playoffs!!!
Going with your gut can only get you so far. Use our industry-leading rankings to gain an edge over your league mates. Need help? Don't worry, Dwain has you covered.
📈 Risers
📈 QB – Justin Herbert
Since getting Keenan Allen back in Week 11, Herbert has averaged 21.8 fantasy points per game. Last weekend, Mike Williams returned, and suddenly the Chargers have one of the better receiving corps in football, with Austin Ekeler, Joshua Palmer, and Gerald Everett rounding out the attack.
No other team allows more fantasy points via the passing game than the Titans, who allow 296 yards and 1.9 TDs per contest in non-overtime play. In one of only four games with a 47-point total or higher, the Chargers' passing offense is in a great spot this weekend.
Herbert loves football, and he is a SMASH play as the QB4 overall.
📈 RB – Derrick Henry
Henry faces the third-worst graded PFF run defense (34.6) and could see career-high usage on passing downs with Dontrell Hilliard out. The veteran RB neared a 50% route participation (48%) and played 67% of the two-minute offense snaps last week.
The Chargers allow 146 yards per game on the ground in non-overtime play – the fifth-most in the NFL. The Titans won’t have Treylon Burks again this weekend, so finding ways to create touches in the passing game for the best team’s best playmaker could be in the cards.
The Titans' workhorse could easily finish as the RB1. He is my RB2.
📈 RB – Brian Robinson Jr.
Robinson averages 17.3 rushing attempts per game and gets a great matchup against a Giants run defense, allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game (147) in non-overtime play.
Antonio Gibson figures to remain the lead passing-down option, which adds risk to Robinson’s profile if the game goes sideways. However, the Commanders have still handed the rock to the rookie RB 20, 13, 26 and 21 times in games where they trailed by four-plus points on 40% or more of plays.
Robinson is a low-end RB2 this weekend.
📈 WR – Mike Williams
Williams was limited to a 72% route participation in his first game back but led the team in air yards (35%). He delivered 23.6 fantasy points on six receptions for 116 yards and a TD.
The big-bodied WR isn’t a target hog (19% TPRR), but the Chargers rank inside the top five in pass rate across trailing, close and leading game scripts. No team drops back to pass more (70%), and Los Angeles maximizes the veteran WR's looks via play-action.
The average WR sees 25% of targets come from play action – Williams is well above that at 41%. Over the last three seasons, play action targets are worth ~20% more than non-play action targets in PPR scoring.
In healthy games with a 70% route participation or more, Williams averages 7.9 targets and 16 fantasy points. In eight such games, he scored 20-plus points four times. This is a WR that doesn’t need a 30% target share to dominate.
The Chargers face a Titans defense that allows the second-most passing yards (296) and TDs (1.9) in regulation play. Wheels up, y’all.
Williams is a high-end WR2 with top-six potential. Mike! Mike! Mike! Mike!
📉 Fallers
📉 WR – Marquise Brown
Brown is questionable for the Cardinals' tilt against the Broncos. The veteran WR was a potential bright spot as recently as two games ago, with a 31% target share in his first game back.
However, Kyler Murray is done for the season, dampening any remaining hope for a late-season offensive resurrection in Arizona. Colt McCoy provides a similar floor to Murray, but his upside is limited. McCoy has one 300-yard game and one outing with more than one passing TD in six games as the starter in two years.
The Broncos allow only 202 yards per game passing – the third-fewest in the NFL in non-overtime play.
Brown is a mid-range WR3.
Feeling lost in life? Need help with your fantasy football team? Cooterdoodle is here to help. Send your questions about fantasy, or life to dearpete@fantasylife.com
Dear Cooter, I hope this email finds you well. How do I get a girlfriend?
Shoutout, Corey Spala
Dear Corey, Since this is a fantasy football newsletter, I assume the dating question is code for an RB1.
And I get it. A “girlfriend” may seem difficult to find if you’re always comparing the absence of yours to all the wonderful girlfriends everyone else seems to have. Your friends won’t stop bragging about scoring with her last weekend. They’re showing you screenshots of what she did on Monday night. But this is a classic case of the grass being greener.
You need to remember that there are plenty of people with girlfriends who aren’t satisfied and plenty who have never had a great girlfriend but are thriving without them.
Focus on yourself first, Corey. Don’t get lost in the hustle, chasing backup girlfriends year round. You’ve got strengths. Those are where you should focus your energy, and the rest will fall into place (hopefully… there’s really a lot of luck involved in dating).
I hope this helps, but might I suggest going WR early while you’re young.
🧑💻 Get him into your lineups. Then log off.
👩🎓 You have probably heard of Dr. Dolittle. How about Dr. Cooterdoodle?
🚑 Tyler Lockett will have surgery on his finger. He might return soon.
🎱 Will we see Darren Waller or Hunter Renfrow Sunday? Reply hazy, try again.
📽 Projecting Zach Wilson this weekend. Seems legit.
💸 This WR is breaking out... his wallet.
❓ It has been a brutal year at TE. Could we get a stud back in Week 15?
Our resident betting sharps at Fantasy Life have a group chat. Lucky for you, they are leaking the alpha. Here's what Geoff came up with for Week 15...
🎄 Christian Kirk Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Look, guys, these Jaguars are for real. They’ve scored over 30 points, and Trevor Lawrence has averaged over 8.5 yards per attempt in two of their last three games.
Lawrence may not be the second coming, but he’s certainly a legitimate talent and not likely to fold in what will be the biggest game of his career this week. The matchup also suggests he and Christian Kirk could have a day. Dallas allowed Chris Moore, the Texans' slot receiver, to go for 10 catches and 124 yards, and over the last three weeks, the Cowboys have now allowed the seventh-most yardage to WRs.
Kirk’s been a baller in this Jags offense all year. He’s gone for 60 or more yards in eight of 13 games, is averaging 75.2 yards over his last five games, and has a healthy team target share of 23%. The Fantasy Life computer loves him, too, as his yardage Over is projected with the second biggest edge of the week.
People are overlooking the Jaguars and giving too much credit to Dallas, whose secondary has tailed off in the second half of the season. We’ve got two pace-up teams and a suppressed prop to attack. Let’s take the Christmas bonus money and jam it on Kirk Over’s this week.
🎉 Hunter Henry to Score a TD +260 / to score 2 or more TDs +2000
Alright, first off, did everyone see how close Hunter Henry was to scoring last week?
It's crazy how effective the Pats offense is when they actually utilize Hunter Henry in the passing game.
Why they don't utilize him more is beyond me
— Guy Boston Sports (@GuyBostonSports)
Dec 13, 2022
Henry has been that guy for Mac Jones in the past. The two combined for nine TDs over an 11-game stretch last season, and two of those games saw Henry pop for multiple scores.
The Raiders? They just allowed a guy to walk off of an airfield and drive 98 yards for a TD to win the game. There will be opportunities this week, and Jones has continued to yap about wanting to throw the ball downfield.
Look, I don’t want to break out the whole perfect storm analogy, but that was a pretty solid George Clooney flick, so allow me to try:
- Warm-game environment (thanks Vegas)
- Raiders defense ranks eighth-worst in pressure rate
- No Davante Parker
- Henry leads the Patriots in red-zone targets and is a positive-TD regression candidate
Let’s go for the home run and attack this Raiders secondary with a guy who has been the Patriots' most consistent and explosive downfield target the past two seasons.
It is that time of year when we get NFL football on Saturday (thank the cosmos), and our team has you covered with all the actionable info you need in one convenient location in the Fantasy Life Game Hub. Our resident betting expert, Matt LaMarca, sets the stage with a preview for each game.
💰 Colts at Vikings (-3.5) – 47.5 total
The way the Vikings have accumulated wins has been fluky.
They have routinely been outgained by their opponents, and they rank 39th in the league in yardage differential. Overall, the Vikings have an expected record of 6.5-6.5, which feels like an accurate representation of their talent level. They’re a .500 team camouflaged by one of the best records in the league.
Conversely, the Colts stand out as an undervalued squad. They’re just 4-8-1 this season, but two of those losses came with Sam Ehlinger at quarterback.
Since Matt Ryan rejoined the lineup, the team has played much better. They pulled off a win over the Raiders, a one-point loss to the Eagles and played competitively against Dallas until the fourth quarter.
The fact that the Colts lost by such a wide margin in their last game sets up a nice buy-low. Teams coming off a loss of at least 35 points have gone 73-41-5 against the spread since 2003. The Colts are also coming off a bye last week, while the Vikings are playing on short rest.
Regression has already started to rear its ugly head for the Vikings, and I only think it’s going to continue. I’m all over the Colts +4.5.
💰 Ravens at Browns (-3) – 38 total
Unfortunately for Browns fans, this rivalry has been all Ravens. They own a 35-12 record against Cleveland, and they’ve won 20 of the past 25 head-to-head matchups. They’ve also excelled at covering the spread versus the Browns, going 10-4 against the spread in their past 14 matchups.
The Browns will have the benefit of home field on Saturday, and they’ll also have Deshaun Watson under center. Watson was really rusty in his first game following a nearly two-year layoff, but he looked sharp in Week 14. He completed 61.9% of his passes for 276 yards and one TD, although the Browns only mustered 10 points.
Tyler Huntley is a clear downgrade from Lamar Jackson, but he’s still one of the more capable backup quarterbacks in football. Cleveland ranks merely 27th in defensive DVOA, so he should be able to move the chains in this matchup.
The trends point towards the Ravens in this spot. Per the Action Network, the Browns are just 9-17 against the spread as a favorite under head coach Kevin Stefanski, while Watson is 10-16-2 as a favorite since 2018. The Ravens are also 30-17-1 against the spread in road games since 2017, including 5-2 this season.
💰 Dolphins at Bills (-7) – 44 total
The early betting in this matchup seems to favor the Dolphins, which does make some sense. The Dolphins are still 8-4 for the year, and it’s rare to be able to get such a good team as an underdog of greater than a touchdown. Historically, teams with a winning percentage of at least 66% have posted a record of 45-36-3 against the spread when getting at least seven points.
The X-factor here is the weather. The current forecast in Buffalo doesn’t call for precipitation, but it does call for temperatures of around 25 degrees. While those conditions are normal for Buffalo, it’s not something that Tua Tagovailoa is familiar with.
Per the Action Network, Tua has started 63 games between the Dolphins and Alabama, and none of them have been below 36 degrees. As a professional, Tua is 0-3 against the spread in games that are 50 degrees or colder. That’s too small of a sample size to draw any definitive conclusions, but it’s not surprising that the Bills are more equipped for a winter showdown in Buffalo.
JMToWin is a founder/developer of One Week Season, where we focus not only on preparing you for each unique slate, but also on teaching you the strategies and theories behind winning DFS play. Today JM is here to dive into his Building Blocks that can be used as foundational starts for tournament rosters. Become a part of the OWS Fam with OWS Free!
📓 Hurts + Goedert + Pacheco
- COST: $18.8K DK // $22.6K FD
STORY:
“Hurts does what he’s expected to do, Goedert becomes the pass game piece who hits, and Pacheco takes points away from Mahomes and Kelce.”
📓 WHY IT WORKS:
With Goedert (likely) returning from I.R., the field is doubtful to be on him. The Bears “appear to be good against tight ends” (i.e., they haven’t allowed much production), but they have played one of the softest TE schedules in the NFL, and there is no reason to expect them to be able to keep Goedert in check if he’s seeing volume this week.
By pairing Hurts with Goedert, you lower your Hurts rostership. By adding Pacheco, you account for the scenario that would provide your clearest path to a first-place finish with a Hurts/Goedert pairing: Mahomes/Kelce finishing a bit below expectations against the Texans.
📓 HOW IT WORKS:
This roster still requires at least one additional move. Goedert is likelier to put up 18 to 22 in “a great game” than to be a true separator. The same could be said for Pacheco — so while the differentiation is nice, and while it’s also nice that a strong Pacheco game would likely be lowering the ceiling for some other rosters, you would still probably need at least one other low-owned, high-upside player or combo that could vault over the remaining rosters.
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