Staring at myself in the mirror, wondering if I have 'that dog in me'...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Underdog Fantasy:
- The most fun team to stack in all of fantasy
- The Puppy 2 is filling up fast
- Reception Perception: Jerry Jeudy
- Zach Wilson breaks his silence
- Pete predicts 3 ADP risers
- Team preview: Minnesota Vikings
- It’s 7/14. Take it away, Peter Overzet…
For years the fantasy community has begged anyone who would listen to Let Russ Cook.
Those pleas fell on deaf ears (re: Pete Carroll's), but now that Russell Wilson has landed in Denver it seems like we might finally get our wish.
"I think you'll see a rejuvenated Russ [with the Broncos]. They are tailoring things around him. He'll have more ownership of the offense and a good supporting cast."
AFC personnel evaluator to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler
On the one hand, this seems blatantly obvious. Of course you tailor the offense around your QB's strengths, and yet at the same time it's a relief to hear those words because that was just not the case throughout Wilson's tenure in Seattle.
The Broncos are an incredibly fun team to stack in Underdog tournaments right now. There's intriguing players at basically every pocket of the draft, and I've been grabbing various combinations whenever I can.
Want to bet on the mile high upside of Javonte Williams if he separates from Melvin Gordon? He's there at the 2/3 turn.
Want to set up a premium Russell Wilson stack? Take your pick of Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy in the fourth.
Want to play the offense cheap? Tim Patrick (ADP: 116), Albert Okwuegbunam (ADP: 145), and KJ Hamler (ADP: 181) all offer extremely affordable prices for rounding out Wilson double stacks.
Not all of these guys will hit, but it seems extremely likely that a couple of the names listed above will greatly outperform their current ADP.
You can join me in loading up on the Broncos in The Puppy 2 draft on Underdog Fantasy right now. It's filling fast, so hop in there soon:
Each draft is only $5 and it's great practice for your home league drafts. Not to mention, there's a $75,000 price to first. Even better, first-time depositors get up to a $100 deposit match with promo code LIFE.
With Reception Perception, Matt Harmon studies the film on WRs, tracks and interprets the data, and then delivers the goods. Today he is swinging by the Fantasy Life offices to get us hyped on WR, Jerry Jeudy. Take it away, Matt...
Jerry Jeudy’s 2021 season got off to a hot start in Week 1 but went awry as quickly as it began. Jeudy’s Week 1 high-ankle sprain caused him to miss a large chunk of the year and could easily have affected him once he returned. It’s an injury that can wreck a receiver. That context is something we should keep in mind through his Reception Perception profile.
Jerry Jeudy’s 75% success rate vs. man coverage and 73.6% success rate vs. press were both extremely promising indicators from his rookie season. However, both numbers sunk in his 2021 sample. His success rate vs. zone coverage (78.9%) was relatively stable from Year 1 to Year 2 and is still an above-average number. That shows he’s still a heady player who operates with good craftsmanship at the position.
Jeudy’s biggest dropoff on an individual route basis was his slant work. He posted an excellent 87.3% success rate as a rookie (most commonly run route) but fell way down to 73.2% in 2021.
The Broncos seem intent on using Jeudy as a slot receiver, or at least the old coaching staff operated that way. He took 66.5% of his sampled snaps inside. If he’s set to continue that role as Russell Wilson’s layup slot player, he’ll need to get back to form running slants.
Again, I’m willing to write off some of the separation decline due to his high ankle sprain. The boxscore letdown is easy to excuse given he’s been playing in a slow-paced offense with a crowded target tree alongside quarterback play not at all capable of being the rising tide to lift all boats. We know that the last factor is set to change in Year 3. So being optimistic about Jeudy, who was an excellent route-runner coming into the NFL, is perfectly reasonable.
We should at least entertain the possible downsides.
There’s a chance that Jeudy’s decline as a separator last year is more due to him not developing as a route-runner in the pros. Being a great technician in college is one thing; it’s a whole different ball game that requires greater nuance in the NFL. It’s possible Jeudy has plateaued there and levels off as a “good”, not “excellent” route-runner, and that can be true with his rookie success rates in mind.
Jeudy has also struggled in contested situations (50% catch rate) and with drops (9.8% drop rate) in each of his first two seasons. Those were issues in college too. It’s also worth wondering if Jeudy is really a fit as a slot receiver. Given his strong success rates vs. man and press as a rookie – assuming that’s closer to his baseline – and his strong marks on deeper routes last year, he might be better suited to rip it up downfield on deep and intermediate routes as a flanker.
There’s more good than bad with Jeudy’s film through two years, but it’s just worth keeping your mind open to both possible outcomes and asking some questions. The facelift about to hit Denver’s offense and his own health could be all the answers we need.
I remain more in than out on Jeudy going forward, given that his rookie year was hyper-promising, and he only fell from “good” to “average” in Reception Perception from Year 1 to Year 2. The addition of Wilson to an offense that has sputtered along with league-basement level quarterback play for years cannot be overstated.
For more Reception Perception, sign up here... And tell Matt we sent you!
💋 Zach Wilson breaks his silence about his steamy summer fling. Pretty funny response tbh.
🥊 The former bellcow RB pivoting to boxing. The career pivot worked for Logan Paul so why not.
🤝 The Patriots pulled off a WR trade. New England truly is due to hit on a WR draft pick.
💪 Is Gabriel Davis low key thicc now?? Sources say......yes.
📚 The full Andrew Luck story. A 6-part podcast series about how one of the greatest QB prospects ever walked away before he was 30 years old.
Pete shares three players who he thinks will have a much higher ADP come September...
We're in the dog days of best ball summer without much news impacting the player pool. Sure, DJ Moore moved up a few spots after the Panthers traded for Baker Mayfield, but for the most part we are in an ADP holding pattern.
For those drafting now, one of the biggest edges we can get is selecting players whose ADP will climb later in the season. In the sports betting world, they call this dynamic "closing line value" or CLV.
In our case, CLV simply means the price (re: ADP) a drafter gets relative to the final ADP of a player before the season starts. Last year a bunch of drafters snagged Rams RB Darrell Henderson in the double digit rounds, but he finished draft season as a 4th round pick after the Cam Akers injury.
We aren't in the business of predicting injuries, but there are some indicators we can use to spot the types of players who historically rise in ADP throughout the offseason and target them accordingly. The better we are at identifying these risers, the better chance we have at building super teams that our opponents won't be able to compete with.
Here are 3 players I feel confident will rise in value over the next 6 weeks:
🔮 Breece Hall - Jets RB (Current ADP: 45; Future ADP: 30)
This same movie plays out virtually every summer:
Elite RB prospect is drafted early to a team that already has a decent RB. Drafters discount that RB due to timeshare concerns. Camp reports emerge that the elite rookie is balling at training camp. Drafters begin selecting RB a round or two earlier where he should have gone in the first place.
Hall topped 1,700 yards from scrimmage and scored 23 TDs in both of his final two seasons at Iowa State, ran a 4.39 forty had a 40-inch vertical at 217 pounds, and compares similarly as a prospect to Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley, and Saquon Barkley.
And then the Jets selected him as the first RB off the board and in doing so told us everything we need to know about how they feel about incumbent Michael Carter.
This is a layup as far as spotting a future ADP riser. Gobble him up now while he still chills out in the 5th round of Underdog drafts before he lands in the third round near where James Conner is currently going.
🔮 Chris Godwin - Bucs WR (Current ADP: 62.7; Future ADP: 35)
Drafters are currently spooked about Godwin's potential slow recovery from ACL surgery. Early offseason reports about an ambiguous timeline and a late Fall return to action pushed his ADP all the way down to the 60s.
If there were zero injury concerns, it's safe to say Godwin would be going in the second round of drafts, which is where his teammate Mike Evans (ADP: 15.8) is currently being selected.
The other day we got a report, however, that the team is "hopeful" that he'll be available for week one against the Cowboys. We know the team isn't going to rush him back, but even the reframing of this timeline is bullish for his return and signals that he is extremely undervalued at his current price.
Even if there's only a 25% chance of Godwin seeing action in September, the reward at pick 62 far outweighs the risk, especially in BBM3 where late season production is all that matters.
Scoop up as much Godwin as you can get before he finds his way back up to the early rounds.
🔮 Alvin Kamara - Saints RB (Current ADP 34.2; Future ADP: 10)
The best kept secret in fantasy right now is that Kamara is unlikely to be suspended during the 2022 season. We talked about in the newsletter the other day and attorney Drew Davenport did the heavy lifting on the legal side, but all signs point to this subsequent suspension getting pushed to 2023.
With question marks at WR (Michael Thomas health, Chris Olave a rookie, etc.) and a barren RB depth chart (sorry, Mark Ingram), Kamara is once again set to be the focal point of this offense.
If you eliminated any suspension concerns, Kamara would be a back-end of Round 1 fantasy pick, right alongside Najee Harris and Dalvin Cook. And that’s where he’s going to end up once the public realizes this 2022 suspension is a mirage.
The season is fast approaching, which means it is time for us to get to know all of these NFL teams and who we should be drafting and fading after a busy offseason. In today's team preview, Fantasy Life's Community Lead & dynasty guru, Sam Wallace, previews the Minnesota Vikings.
The Minnesota Vikings finished 8-9 last season and moved on from longtime head coach Mike Zimmer. Zimmer, who coached the team for eight seasons, came from a defensive-focused background. However, things are expected to change after the team hired Kevin O'Connell as their new head coach. O'Connell served as the offensive coordinator for the Rams for two seasons.
Courtesy of BetMGM, they are +260 to win their division which puts them No. 2 behind the Packers. This team has all the pieces in place to make a playoff run; it will be interesting to follow how quickly this offense can adjust to the new scheme.
⚙️ Offseason changes
- Fired former head coach Mike Zimmer
- Fired former general manager Rick Spielman
- Hired new head coach Kevin O'Connell
- Hired new general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah
- Signed QB Kirk Cousins to a 1-year/$35 million extension (he’s signed through 2025)
- Drafted RB Ty Chandler in Round 5 of the NFL Draft
✨ Team vibes
Justin Jefferson said the Vikings aren’t “a run-first offense anymore”. That’s high praise from the young superstar. It’s exciting to think about what this offense can do this year, considering how effective they’ve been in the past. Adam Thielen, despite being 31 years old, was the WR7 through Week 12 last season before suffering an ankle injury. Jefferson was the WR5 during that stretch.
If health isn’t an issue, and TE Irv Smith Jr. finally breaks out, this offense can feasibly support two WR1s, an elite RB1, and a low-end TE1. Oh, and Cousins remains the greatest value at the QB position yet again. I have no issue drafting (almost) all Vikings players at or above their current cost.
🎯Draft targets
- Kirk Cousins (ADP 113.5 / QB15)
- Dalvin Cook (ADP 9.8 / RB6)
- Justin Jefferson (ADP 3.9 / WR2)
- Adam Thielen (ADP 70.9 / WR34)
- K.J. Osborn (ADP 146.5 / WR67)
👋Draft fades
- Alexander Mattison (ADP 122.4 / RB39)
- Irv Smith (ADP 128.2 / TE12)
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