With all due respect to Jay-Z and Alicia Keys, Florida Man remains undefeated.
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by BetMGM.
NHL Playoffs: A +425 goal prop for Game 2
MLB Friday: Best bets for the 15-game slate
NBA Playoffs: Will points be at a premium on Friday?
It’s 5/24. Take it away, Geoff Ulrich
Game 2 of the NHL Eastern Conference Finals goes off tonight, and it already feels like a must-win for the New York Rangers. Teams that lose Game 1 are already in a hole, as winners of Game 1 of an NHL series have a historic win rate of around 68-69%.
But teams that go up 2-0? Their edge skyrockets into the 85% range.
What’s worse for the Rangers is that all of the areas where they seemingly had an edge against Florida disappeared in Game 1. In net, Sergei Bobrovsky out-dueled Igor Shesterkin, while the Rangers’ power play was non-existent. The often undisciplined Panthers (second-most regular season penalties) only took two penalties and managed to keep New York from gaining any momentum on special teams.
The Rangers weren’t skated off the ice in Game 1 (it was a one-goal game until late in the third period), but they’ll need to turn the tables on Florida in Game 2 and either get to Bobrovsky early or draw the Panthers into more penalties.
So, do we go back to the Panthers or flip the script and take a shot with the home underdogs? Let’s dive in.
😼 Florida Panthers Moneyline (-110; DraftKings)
Here’s a small snippet of what I wrote in my Game 1 Win in Regulation bet on the Panthers:
“When it boils down to it, Florida is available at -115 on the Moneyline and +145 on the regulation line today. For comparison, they went off at -155 on the straight Moneyline in Game 6 in Boston, so while the Panthers remain the favorites, they’re being priced as if their opponent today is far superior to the one they just beat.”
After watching Game 1 of this series, everything from above still applies. The Panthers got great goaltending from Sergei Bobrovsky, who now has a .936 SV% over his last six games. He’s also been lights out against New York recently, posting a 3-1-1 record in his last five meetings vs. the Rangers. The Panthers didn’t dominate 5v5 but kept New York in check and still out-chanced them 8-7 in the high-danger scoring area. They’ll want to press that advantage more in Game 2, but with the better goalie right now, even if they play New York equal at even strength, you have to like their chances to squeak out a close win.
New York has been relying on goaltending and special teams all playoffs, but Game 1 was called tightly. I don’t expect a barrage of penalties in this series from Florida, who are as confident a team as you’ll find right now. Despite that, bettors are flocking to the Rangers in Game 2, seemingly confident they won’t lose two games in a row at home. That’s even pushed the Panthers up to -110 in some places (better than their Game 1 price), which is more than enough for me to make a play on them again in Game 2.
🏒 Sam Bennett Anytime Goal Scorer (+425; bet365)
Bennett hasn’t been playing huge minutes for the Panthers, but he’s certainly been effective when he’s been on the ice. Over his last four games, he’s averaged six shot attempts and managed to land five shots on net in Game 1 – one of which resulted in an empty net goal.
As the third-line center, he anchors a line with Eetu Luostarinen and Evan Rodrigues that showcases the Panthers' depth and should continue to have a decided edge for Florida as this series progresses. It always feels like you’re letting recency bias creep in when you chase a player in the goal market who just lit the lamp in their last game. However, on top of Bennett being a clear force for Florida in Game 1, his anytime goal prices also have solid divergence today, with bet365 and FanDuel posting him over +400, while other books have him as low as +325.
Those bigger prices don’t seem to reflect how much he’s been firing the puck – or how effective he was against New York’s bottom six in Game 1 – making him a nice longshot play to take a stab with for Game 2.
Click Here for more Game 2 Bets!
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⚾️ All 30 MLB teams take the diamond on Friday. Best bets for the monster slate.
🐎 A dark horse Cy Young candidate? This starter lowered his ERA to 2.13 on Thursday and is available at +4000 across the industry.
🎢 Connor McDavid had a wild OT in Game 1 of the WCF. Luckily for the Oilers, it included a game-winning goal.
😒 Footage of the Scottie Scheffler arrest dropped on Twitter. Worst episode of COPS ever.
⛳ Speaking of Scheffler, is regression finally arriving? He had his worst opening round in nine months at Colonial on Thursday.
✈️ The NY Jets’ schedule looks very favorable this season. They’re currently big favorites to go for double-digit wins.
🚀 Time to bet on a Christian Watson bounce back? He may have finally solved his hamstring issue.
👀 Someone made an insane four-way NHL/NBA Conference winner parlay. All four teams are now up in their respective series.
After a wire-to-wire opening game of the Western Conference Finals, the Timberwolves will look to climb out of an 0-1 hole in Game 2 on Friday. Matt LaMarca is here to guide us through his best bets…
📉 Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Under 207.5 points (-110; BetMGM)
After dropping Game 1, all the pressure is on the Timberwolves in Game 2. Falling into an 0-2 hole is extremely difficult to climb out of, especially when those two losses came at home. We saw the Nuggets fall into the same deficit in the last round, and the Timberwolves were able to pull off the upset in seven games.
The sharps and public believe that the Timberwolves can bounce back on Friday. They’ve received 62% of the spread bets and 70% of the dollars (per the Action Network), which has caused the spread to jump from Timberwolves -3.5 to -5.5.
The Timberwolves are my preferred side as well, but -5.5 is a little too rich for my blood. Instead, I’m going to take a look at under 207.5 points.
These two squads combined for 213 points in Game 1, but I’m not expecting the Mavericks to shoot the ball quite as well. Specifically, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving combined for 63 points on 24-49 shooting, which was their third-highest output of the postseason. The Timberwolves were the best defensive team in basketball during the regular season, so expect them to do a much better job in Game 2.
Head coach Chris Finch was very critical of his team’s effort in Game 1, so the Timberwolves should be extremely focused and motivated to start Game 2. Expect to see them flying around on defense, which should push this game under the total.
More bets for Game 2 of the WCF!
