🎠 The RB Carousel Never Stops

You've heard of elf on a shelf... what about a Sun God on a fantasy squad?

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

• A Seattle backfield shakeup.
• Morning Download: Dwain gets you caught up
• DFS Stacks. Back to the Sun God alter.
• SNF: Preview & More.
• Player Matchups. Can't spell Go Off without Goff...
  
• It’s 12/11. Take it away, Dwain McFarland…

In a must-win week for many, we have multiple injury situations that could have significant fantasy ramifications today. For the full breakdown across the league, read on to the Morning Download.

However, there is one situation that could be more fruitful than the rest that we must discuss off the top.

⌚️ Is it Travis Homer time?

Kenneth Walker III is a game-time decision but isn't considered likely to play, and DeeJay Dallas will not suit up today. The Seahawks elevated Godwin Igwebuike, which reinforces the idea that Walker and Dallas won't play.

The Seahawks have shown a willingness to deploy a committee approach when they don't have a true No. 1 over the years, and that could be the case this weekend. However, Tony Jones Jr. and Igwebuike are practice-squad players. Homer has been Seattle's lead passing-down option and there is a chance he plays an every-down role.

Out of all the RB carousel news for the weekend, Homer carries the most upside. He plays in a quality offense — the Seahawks rank seventh in drives converted to TDs (26%) — and the fourth-year RB has been efficient over his career with 16% of his attempts going for 10-plus yards (10.5% is the NFL average). His 1.60 yards per route run (YPRR) is top notch for an RB.

Homer carries risk but possesses the appropriate upside to make his way into lineups as a high-end RB3. A low-end RB1 performance is in his range outcomes.

Read on for more of the biggest fantasy news stories from last night and our favorite DFS plays and sports bets for today's action.

• GAME HUB - Everything you need to know about each game all in one place.
• INACTIVES - updated at 11:30am ET for 1pm games
• RANKINGS - Full Week 13 rankings for multiple scoring settings from Dwain & Waz
• FANTASY LIFE TWITTER - If news breaks, we'll have it.
• START/SIT TOOL - Debating who to start? Simply type in both players to this tool and we'll tell you the best option:
• PLAYER PROPS TOOL - Our freshly updated props tool is here to give you the best bets for each game.

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💰 Matt LaMarca is betting: Lions -1.5

The Vikings pulled off yet another Houdini act in Week 13. They were outgained by nearly 200 yards by the Jets, yet they still managed to find a way to escape with a victory. They’ve fallen all the way to 29th in yardage differential, so only three teams have been outgained by more than the Vikings this season. That’s the sign of a mediocre football team, not a team that’s 10-2.

It may be weird to see them getting points against the Lions, but Detroit has quietly played some excellent football of late. Their offense has been fantastic all year, and they’ve propelled the Lions to wins in three of their past four games. Their lone loss in that stretch was a three-point defeat vs. the Bills, who might be the best team in football.

The sharps are all over the Lions this week, and I will be joining them as small home favorites.

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📂 Saquon Barkley a GTD

The outlook on Barkley has been up and down over the last 24 hours. However, he is now looking like a true game-time decision.

Starting to lean slightly the other way here, toward Saquon Barkley not playing. These things really change by hour. Could be a pregame decision.

#Giants didn’t call up a practice squad RB, so just Matt Breida and Gary Brightwell to split carries in that scenario twitter.com/rydunleavy/sta…

— Ryan Dunleavy (@rydunleavy)
Dec 10, 2022

The Giants play the Eagles in an early game, and Matt Breida would move into the high-end RB3 discussion if Barkley can't go. If you don't have other options, securing Breida before the final news breaks is wise.

📂 J.K. Dobbins returns

Dobbins is set to make his return in Week 14 against the Steelers. The Ravens are optimistic that the former second-rounder will have more of his burst back after a procedure to remove scar tissue, but they will likely work him back slowly.

The third-year back is a mid-range RB3 option this weekend and is still available in 33% of Yahoo! Leagues.

📂 Amari Cooper will test his hip pregame

Amari Cooper injured his hip in practice on Thursday and didn't participate on Friday. He will test things out in pre-game warmups, and there is optimism he will play.

#Browns WR Amari Cooper (questionable, hip) still has a good chance to play vs Bengals, who are expecting him on the field. Cooper told @Jake_Trotter this week he ‘should be’ able to go, and a source still expects him to try to play.

— Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN)
Dec 11, 2022

If Cooper can't play, we could see larger roles for David Njoku, Donovan Peoples-Jones and Kareem Hunt in the passing game. The Browns will have their hands full against a potent Bengals attack that could force Cleveland into catchup mode.

📂 Misc. Files

We got early reports on a few Monday Night Football injury situations. 

Rondale Moore is out for the Cardinals. The passing offense will funnel through Marquise Brown and DeAndre Hopkins, but Greg Dortch is a desperation play.

The Patriots will also be without a WR, and their RB2 is doubtful.

Patriots WR Jakobi Meyers is out for Monday night's game against the Cardinals, while RB Damien Harris is doubtful to play.

Rhamondre Stevenson in line for another massive workload.

— Field Yates (@FieldYates)
Dec 10, 2022

Hunter Henry has played a full-time role lately and could pick up the slack inside.

Deshaun Watson could handle more designed runs. He already accounted for 15% in his first game — the league leaders (i.e., Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson) average ~25%. If he reaches that level and the passing game clicks, he has QB1-overall upside.

👍 Leonard Fournette will play. He is a low-end RB2.

🧸️ We all love fantasy football. Great to see fantasy football share the love.

🏠 Playing this stack in DFS won't make you a Homer. I promise.

🚑 Lots of injuries to monitor this morning. What does the data say?

📃 DFS chalk and top plays. Plus, some surprising under-rostered options.

 😲 All is fair in fantasy football. This fantasy manager went to an extreme.

🏆 Congrats, Caleb Williams. Sorry fantasy managers, he is only a sophomore!

 ✈️ Still no OBJ news. We are in a holding pattern.

🤔 Everyone loves this matchup. They might be looking at the wrong side, though...

When playing DFS we want to correlate our lineups because it means we have to get fewer things right. Tournaments have such top-heavy payout structures that when you are right, you want to be right in a big way. That’s where stacking teams and games come into play. Eliot, take it away.

We are in bye-mageddon with six teams on bye, leaving a smaller slate and more concentrated rostership. Only one game has a total above 46.5 - the Vikings at Lions game. While players in this game will be highly rostered, this week's strategy is to go big on the Vikings at Lions, a dome game, between two of the worst defenses in football, while differentiating elsewhere.

Jared Goff has a dream matchup against the Minnesota defense in Week 14. The Vikings are dead last in passing yards and yards per attempt while ranking 26th in pressuring the QB. More good news is his weapons are getting healthy with DJ Chark and Jameson Williams back and D’Andre Swift now healthy, Goff will be able to take advantage of the matchup. 

In his career as a Lion, Goff is averaging 280 passing yards in home games with a total of 50+, 45 more than any other situation. In those same situations, Amon-Ra St. Brown is averaging 77 yards, 0.75 TDs, and 19.4 PPR points per game. 

Not many receivers have better chemistry than Goff and St. Brown, and I would argue that no receiver has been more important to his QBs success. From Chris Allen in our game hub “In games where Amon-Ra St. Brown has been healthy, Goff is third in EPA per attempt amongst all quarterbacks. Detroit’s 35.6 yards per drive with their QB-WR duo rivals the Eagles (37.1) and Bengals (37.0).”

While St. Brown has been one of the best receivers in football, Justin Jefferson may be the best and has a juicy matchup against a Lions team allowing 27 points per game, and 31.5 fantasy points to receivers, ranking 32nd and 28th, respectively.

Jefferson is a fast, quick, and smooth route runner who has had his best career games playing indoors, averaging 103.7 yards indoors compared to 80 outdoors. When Cousins has big games, Jefferson is normally the reason why. Kirk Cousins has a player prop line of 280.5 - in games where Cousins has thrown for 280 or more yards in the last two seasons, Jefferson is averaging an absurd 136.5 receiving yards on 12.1 targets.

It's island game time, and we have you covered from a fantasy, DFS, and betting perspective. We also have previews and picks for every game in our Game Hub! Dolphins @ Chargers, take it away, Chris Allen...

😉 Dolphins (-3.0) at Chargers – 52 total 

I was wrong about last week’s game for the Dolphins. Well, partially wrong. The 49ers did give the league a blueprint of how to beat Miami. San Francisco’s corners pressed the Dolphins’ receivers at a season-high rate, and their pass rush had Tua Tagovailoa under fire on 27.8% of his dropbacks. Plus, the 49ers used their heat-seeking missile at linebacker to disrupt Tua’s post-snap processing.

So, sure. San Francisco showed us the right defensive scheme to short-circuit the Dolphins. All you need is All-Pro talent at edge, linebacker, and a defensive coordinator to create problems in coverage. They also need to face Miami’s offense when down two starting offensive linemen. The Chargers check most of those boxes but are yet to play to the same level. As a result, Miami may get back to their high-scoring ways on Sunday.

Jaylen Waddle (fibula) left during the 49ers’ game but got in full practices on Thursday and Friday. Between the two Blur Brothers, Waddle’s 3.92 YPRR from the slot ranks ahead of Tyreek Hill’s when Tua is under center. The sophomore receiver also dominates after getting the ball with a blistering 8.3 YAC per reception per PFF. His efficiency from the slot becomes all the more interesting when considering the Chargers’ interior defense.

Davante Adams (12-177-2) and DeAndre Hopkins (6-87-1) found the paint on inside routes in back-to-back weeks. The San Francisco slot players were just shy of the century mark in Week 10 at 93 yards, but Christian McCaffrey (6-39-0) had to get in on the fun. Regardless, the Chargers’ secondary has surrendered multi-TD performances in three straight weeks. Waddle’s workload (21.3% target share) and role will put him back in the top 12 conversation after SNF. I could say the same about a Chargers’ receiver, too.

Mike Williams will return this weekend, but don't hold your breath hoping to see a revamped Chargers passing attack. Justin Herbert's aDOT with Williams is 6.8 and 6.9 without -- Joe Lombardi is still dialing up a Drew Brees passing attack.

Williams undoubtedly lifts the ceiling for Herbert as another quality weapon, but it still may not match our preseason expectations.

Justin Herbert has averaged 6.2 air yards per attempt this season. Notable quarterbacks with a similar passing depth are Matt Ryan (6.0) and Baker Mayfield (6.5). We remember the highlight plays, but the majority focuses on the short area of the field.

We can forget Austin Ekeler is 31st out of 38 running backs in success rate because he’s on pace to break Christian McCaffrey’s target record (142). He has the same target share as Tee Higgins. Coincidentally, McCaffrey just tagged the Dolphins for 80 yards on ten targets on Sunday, giving Ekeler a clear runway for another high-scoring fantasy day in PPR formats. But a couple of wideouts aren’t too far behind.

Joshua Palmer has been a WR2 without Mike Williams, but moves back into the WR3 range in a crowded attack. In Weeks 1-6...

Every Sunday we'll highlight two interesting matchups you should be aware of before setting your lineup. Take it away, Kevin...

🥵️ Jared Goff vs. MIN

You can’t spell “go off” without Goff, and that’s what he will do in Week 14.

Over the last three weeks, Goff has been a top-10 fantasy QB and now faces a Vikings team who need to sound the Gjallarhorn for secondary help. They’ve lost numerous pieces of their secondary to IR on a team that’s already the second-worst defense against WRs and fourth-worst DVOA vs. a team’s WR1. The Vikings gave up 369 and 382 passing yards to Mike White and Mac Jones in their last two games, so Goff being able to put up at least 300 seems safe.

The Lions are about as full-strength as a team can be this late into the season with all of their passing-game weapons, and Goff has put it together, establishing himself as a top-10 fantasy QB over the last three weeks. Look for him to keep that run going this week.

Go off, king!

🥵️ DeVonta Smith @ NYG

With at least 13 fantasy points in three of his last four games, DeVonta Smith is reaping the benefits of having noted grown-ass man AJ Brown on the opposite side of him and a top-two betting favorite for league MVP, Jalen Hurts at QB. Smith has been the WR14 in the last month since Dallas Goedert has been out and now gets what looks like a tough matchup against the Giants.

While the Giants have been formidable against fantasy WRs (11th-best), they are missing critical pieces of their secondary (a running theme this week!) like Xavier McKinney and Adoree Jackson and sport a bottom-five pass DVOA.

The Eagles have one of the most condensed passing games in the NFL and that’s only more apparent with Goedert for the last few weeks. Between Smith and Brown, the duo has accounted for 55% of the team’s targets over the previous four weeks, and Smith has averaged 8.5 targets per game in that same span.

Despite a perceived tough matchup, Smith is a locked-in top-15 play for me at WR.

Week 14 IS HERE!

Join @dwainmcfarland and @JordanFiegleman on @onamp as they answer your Start/Sit questions.

EVERY QUESTION WILL BE ANSWERED! We kick things off at 11am ET 🔥

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— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife)
Dec 11, 2022