😤 The RB Who Cannot Be Stopped

Kirk, I'd like to introduce you to the Dallas pass rush. Dallas pass rush, this is Kirk...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

• A gross slate & impactful injuries
• Bud Light Six Pack Recap: Fantasy takeaways from Week 11
• What happened to Lamar Jackson?
• Kendall's Overreaction Monday: Zach Wilson is bad
• MNF: Our Top Picks & Plays
• LaMarca's First Look: Early Bets for the week
  
• It's 11/21. Take it away, Peter Overzet...

Don't get me wrong, there were some fantasy bright spots yesterday (more on those below; hello, Tony Pollard), but for the most part, the Week 11 slate was a pretty gross, low-scoring slate with lots of carnage.

This sums things up pretty well:

K Brett Maher: 29.5 Fantasy Points

Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown, Dalvin Cook, Saquon Barkley combined: 28 fantasy points.

— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR)
Nov 21, 2022

In addition to big names flopping, we also had another batch of injuries to key fantasy performers that we'll be monitoring closely throughout the week...

• Justin Fields (left shoulder)
• Kyle Pitts (knee)
• Joe Mixon (concussion)
• Matthew Stafford (concussion)
• Wan'Dale Robinson (knee)
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle)
• Mike Williams (ankle...again)
• Kadarius Toney (hamstring)

For the glass-half-full spin on Week 11, read on for the top performers of the week, our favorite bets for MNF, and some early Week 12 bets to make.

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💰 Eliot is betting James Conner Over 19.5 Receiving Yards -115

The 49ers were -8 as recently as last night, but with the news that Kyler Murray will be inactive tonight, the line has climbed to -10, and that line movement has caused me to move off the 49ers -8. 

The negative game script should set up nicely for Cardinals RB James Conner in the passing game. Last week Conner played 96% of the snaps and ran a route on 60% of dropbacks. While the 49ers have been stingy against the run, they are allowing 7.3 targets per game and have allowed over 20 yards receiving to RBs in 7/9 games this season. With Conner being the only RB running routes, he should sail over this number.

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Every Monday, Pete will share his six big takeaways from the week's action compliments of our friends over at Bud Light. Let's crack open that six pack, Pete...

🍺 1. Tony Pollard unleashed

Zeke returned to the lineup yesterday, but it didn't keep the Pollard train from chuggin' along. The Cowboys' best RB exploded for 189 total yards, 2 total TDs, and a week-winning 36.9 PPR points. Both of his TDs came through the air, including this absurd one where he roasted a linebacker down the sideline. 

Tony Pollard just scored more points on that one play than Saquon Barkley and Miles Sanders did combined totally today, just to give one completely random example. #arghhh#fantasylife

— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR)
Nov 20, 2022

🍺 2. Amari Cooper...on the road?!

We joked about the narratives surrounding Cooper's bizarre home/away splits yesterday, and I suppose the jury is still out after Amari dropped an 8-113-2 line against the Bills on a neutral field in Detroit. He's now Top 5 in the league in receiving TDs (7), and it begs the question of why the Cowboys ever traded him, much less for pennies.

Reminder: The Cowboys traded away Amari Cooper and his relatively reasonable contract for two fifth-round draft picks that most likely won't be anything... lmao.

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland)
Nov 20, 2022

🍺 3. Davante Adams doesn't care about matchups

For those in the weeds on WR/CB matchups, Patrick Surtain presented a tough matchup for Adams on paper. But when you're Davante Adams, WR/CB matchups don't matter. Adams lit up the Broncos for 141 yards and 2 TDs on 7 catches, including this game-winning walk-off bomb in overtime. The Raiders' offense overall has been a disappointment, but one of Adams or Josh Jacobs generally put up a monster week.

🍺 4. Bengals/Steelers goes bonkers

For the most part, yesterday's games were either very low-scoring or lopsided, but the divisional tilt between Cincy and Pittsburgh yielded 67 points and big fantasy days across the board:

• Joe Burrow (355 yards and 4 TDs)
• Samaje Perine (82 total yards and 3 TDs...on your bench)
• Najee Harris (116 total yards and 2 TDs)
• Tee Higgins (9-148)
• George Pickens (4-83-1)

The Bengals got the win, but we'll have to wait and see if Mixon (concussion) will be ready for Week 12 vs. the Titans. It's also up in the air whether Ja'Marr Chase will be ready.

🍺 5. Jamaal Williams, king of the TDs

D'Andre Swift scored a TD, and Justin Jackson led the team in rush yards, but Jamaal Williams found the endzone not once, not twice, but three times in the Lions' 31-18 win over the Giants. He now leads the league in rushing TDs with 12. Wild:

Jamaal Williams had 13 rushing TDs in his career entering this year and has 12 through 11 weeks this season twitter.com/MikeClayNFL/st…

— Danny Heifetz (@Danny_Heifetz)
Nov 20, 2022

🍺 6. Travis Kelce, business as usual

With Mark Andrews still rounding back into form, there's very little competition for the top dog at the TE position. Kelce put up what many would call a monster performance (6-115-3), but for him is just "another day at the office." The dude is an animal.

HAT TRICK TRAVIS KELCE 🔥

— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife)
Nov 21, 2022

✈️ Week 11 air yard leaders. Two interesting names round out the Top 5.

🤥 C'mon, Zach Wilson. We're not idiots. At least head coach Robert Saleh was truthful.

💥 Sick plays from Falcons-Bears. CPatt to the house & Cole Kmet wizardry. 

📉 What happened to Lamar Jackson? This has been a rough stretch.

🍆 The Colts mascot was out of pocket yesterday. Lmao.

🎉 Now, this is how you do a bachelor party. So good.

Need the best DFS Showdown plays for tonight? OWS & PFF have you covered. 

🤼‍♂️ Dameon Pierce, WWE star? The kids call this a "Bautista Bomb" apparently.

We're humans who play fantasy football, which means we are prone to overreact. In this weekly series, Kendall will lead us in overreacting to Sunday's action...

 😡 Zach Wilson does not have it going on

Wow. Talk about some tough football to watch. My condolences to anyone who sat through the Jets vs. Patriots game on Sunday, which mustered 13 TOTAL points (with the lone “touchdown” coming off a punt return with 23 seconds remaining). This was also the Jets’ 14th consecutive loss to the Patriots, but probably the most alarming part of this game was New York’s offense.

While watching, it was hard to truly believe that Zach Wilson is the answer at quarterback. He had nine completions for 77 yards and finished with a 50.8 passer rating. Wilson was asked if he let the Jets' defense down — his answer? “No.” 

New York averaged 2.1 yards per play and their three points on the day was a season-low. Wilson ranks near the bottom in every quarterback metric in 2022. 

Do the Jets give Wilson the season to prove he’s worthy of a third year? Right now, the defense is playing at a playoff level (maybe even better). The team still has postseason hopes too, and if Wilson continues to lose them games, then a change has to happen. 

I mean, THEY HAD MORE PUNTS (10) THAN COMPLETIONS ON SUNDAY! Gross. The fanbase is angry (rightfully so), and decisions need to be made. Someone’s mom may have it going on, but Zach Wilson does not. 

😡  Call them by their name, FRAUDS!

Did anyone tell the Minnesota Vikings that they were supposed to play a football game yesterday? No? Okay, then that explains the 40-3 LOSS! If you’ve been reading this piece for a while, you know I am absolutely rooting for Minnesota this season. But in doing so, you have to take accountability. The Vikings put up a field goal in the first quarter, then completely disappeared. 

Are they fraudulent? 

They’re currently 8-2 with a negative point margin (-2) on the season, which isn’t great. Sunday was also their biggest home loss in Vikings history. 

From playing the best game of the year to their worst is staggering, but I won’t give up on them. The Cowboys put up a statement win, and the Vikings are still 8-2 with complete control of the NFC North.  

😡 Assorted Reactions

There were a few other concerning teams in Week 11. The Baltimore Ravens secured a 13-3 win against the Panthers, but it wasn’t pretty. Are we worried? Probably not. Their defense is electric and gave up season lows in points, total yards, yards-per-play, and rushing yards on Sunday. Once key players come back from injury, things should get even better.

Thinking that the Eagles are frauds is silly, but Week 11 did show that life without TE Dallas Goedert is going to be tough — thank goodness they have Jalen Hurts, though. However, the one team that could fit the "fraudulent" description is the Giants. Losing 31-18 against the Lions is tough, but they played sloppily, and RB Saquon Barkley could not get things going — this was their wake-up call. 

Tonight, the Niners and Cardinals square off in Mexico City, though plenty is up in the air with Kyler Murray (hamstring) a true game-time decision.

The game currently has a 42.5-point over/under, with San Francisco favored by 8 points. The spread indicates that the betting markets think that Murray will sit and Colt McCoy will get the start.

For the second straight week, Colt McCoy appears set to start for the #AZCardinals, sources say. With QB Kyler Murray still dealing with a hamstring injury and limited all week, McCoy is good to go. The veteran hopes to replicate last week when he was 26 of 36 for 238 with a TD.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet)
Nov 21, 2022

Despite rumors that he might return, it sounds like Cardinals WR Marquise Brown will not play tonight.

Here's everything we like tonight from a fantasy, DFS, and betting perspective:  All odds via BetMGM

Timing is crucial when it comes to sports betting. Lines get released late on Sunday night, and every Monday our new betting specialist Matt LaMarca drops by to give you his first look at the betting markets. All lines from BetMGM...

💸 Bills (-9.0) at Lions

• Pick: Bills -9.0

Are you ready for some Thanksgiving football? As usual, the Lions will get the festivities started at 12:30 p.m. ET, and they’re taking on the Bills. That sets up an interesting dynamic since the Bills played in Detroit this past Sunday. Head coach Sean McDermott said the team debated staying in the Motor City, but they have decided to travel home to Buffalo for a few days of rest.

McDermott says #Bills considered staying in Detroit, but with the chaotic exit from Buffalo, he thinks there’s value in players returning home for a few days on a short week. They’ll return to Detroit on Wednesday to play the #Lions on Thanksgiving.

— Rachel Hopmayer (@rachelhopmayer)
Nov 20, 2022

Regardless, the Bills showed an affinity for the Ford Field dome in Week 11, racking up 31 points against the Browns. Their offense wasn’t exactly firing on all cylinders – they kicked six field goals to supplement their two touchdowns – but they had no problems moving the ball.

They will almost certainly be a popular public side this week on Turkey Day, but they could be a sharp side as well. The early action is coming in on Buffalo, so I don’t think this line will be around for very long. The Bills are already priced at -9.5 across most of the industry, and this game will likely get to 10 before kickoff.

In addition to the Bills being one of the best teams in football and the Lions being one of the worst, Detroit’s record on Thanksgiving is dubious. They’ve covered the spread in just eight of their past 19 Thanksgiving games, and they’re 4-11 as an underdog in that stretch. Detroit is coming off a big win over the Giants on Sunday, but now they have to prepare for an awesome team on a short week. This is a good opportunity to sell high.

💸 Ravens (-3.5) at Jaguars

• Pick: Ravens -3.5

The Ravens' victory over the Panthers was one of the most surprising performances in Week 11. The fact that they won wasn’t surprising – they entered the game as nearly two-touchdown favorites – but rather the fact that the game was pretty competitive. Baltimore managed just 14 points, and the game was tied at 3-3 until Justin Tucker drilled a field goal with 8:27 left in the fourth quarter. Tucker, by the way, brings up an interesting hypothetical:

That wasn’t super encouraging, but the numbers suggest that the Ravens were pretty dominant. They outgained the Panthers by more than 100 yards, and they won the turnover battle three to one. The big issues for the Ravens were penalties and red zone inefficiency. They gave away 93 yards with infractions, and they managed just one score on four trips inside the opposing 20.

I’m expecting the Ravens to be better in both areas vs. the Jaguars. They’ve been a solid red zone team for most of the year, cashing in 55.88% of their red zone chances for touchdowns entering Week 11. Baltimore also averages just 46.8 penalty yards per game, so they were significantly worse than usual in both departments.

The Ravens are currently listed as just 3.5-point road favorites against Jacksonville, and this is another number that should move early in the week. The Ravens are already at -4.0 at some locations, and they’re another team that the sharps have shown significant interest in.

Mahomes is ridiculous.

Kelce is ridiculous.

We are running out of adjectives to describe them

— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR)
Nov 21, 2022