🚀 The RB You Must Start This Week

by Peter Overzet

2 years ago

You're gonna have to wait on the drink cart. Mr. Wilson is doing his high knees...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

It's Tony Pollard szn
Week 8: Rankings & Tiers
A WR to stash on your bench
TNF: Fantasy & Betting Picks
Bets from the group chat: Tom Brady & Rashod Bateman
It's 10/27. Take it away, Peter Overzet...

We don't make a habit of overreacting to Wednesday's practice reports. Still, there's enough smoke around Ezekiel Elliott's knee injury that I think we need to start seriously considering the likelihood of him sitting this week:

Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott not out at practice doing rehab during the media portion today as expected. He has a sprained knee and it doesn't look good for Sunday.
— Clarence Hill Jr (@clarencehilljr)
Oct 26, 2022

Hill also reported Elliott also suffered a deep thigh bruise in addition to the knee injury.

Couple this information with the Cowboys' Week 9 bye, and it seems very likely that we get something the fantasy world has long begged for...

Tony Pollard, starting RB

I asked both Dwain and Waz, our resident rankers at Fantasy Life, where they'd have Pollard ranked among RBs if Zeke does, in fact, sit this week. And both said...wait for it...

Top 5 (!) behind only Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, and Nick Chubb.

This is one of those classic spots where everything aligns for a massive spot start from a backup RB:

An explosive handcuff RB with a bellcow skill set
No other RB competition on the roster
- Dallas uses only two backs on gamedays & needs to call up a practice-squad player
Big implied team total (25.5 projected points)
Great matchup against Chicago's run defense
- CHI surrenders the third-most yards and TDs with PFF's fourth-worst defensive grade

The time is now for Pollard. If they call it, he can haul it.

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💰 Matt LaMarca is betting: Buccaneers +1

I just can’t quit you Tom Brady. This Bucs’ team clearly has some issues, which were on full display in last week’s loss vs. the Panthers. However, that’s resulted in some massive spread value. The Bucs were listed as three-point favorites on the advanced line, but they’re now listed as underdogs. Brady has gone 24-12 against the spread as a dog since 2003, and he’s 10-2 as a home underdog. It’s hard to pass up on those kinds of numbers with The GOAT.

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It is time to make those tough lineup decisions, and Dwain has you covered with in-depth player tiers, rankings, and analysis. Here are a few of his favorites for Week 8:

Henry got off to a rough start averaging 8.3 points over the first two games this season but averages 23.4 over the last four contests. Over that stretch, he has 16 targets – the most of any four-game period in his career.

Dontrell Hilliard is still the primary passing-down option, but the additional targets could come in handy in trailing game scripts where the Titans are forced to pass more. Most importantly, Henry continues to get all of the big-money touches with 83% of attempts inside the five-yard line.

In Week 8, the Titans get a matchup against the Texans who have the worst PFF rush defense grade (36.9) and allow 22.9 non-overtime points per game on the ground.

The Titans are a run-heavy team, averaging the fifth-most attempts per game in non-overtime (28), and opponents average 30.5 attempts against Houston. This could be another 30-plus touch day for Tennessee’s lead RB.

Henry moves to No. 2 in the ranks for Week 8.

Mixon hasn’t been good in 2022. Out of backs with at least 50 attempts (42 qualifiers), he ranks among the league's worst in multiple efficiency measures, per PFF:

Missed tackles forced per attempt: 0.09 (41st)
Average yards after contact: 2.02 (42nd)
Attempts of 10-plus yards: 6% (38th)

However, the utilization has been there. Mixon averages 73% of the snaps and 75% of the rushing attempts.

The Browns have the second-lowest PFF run-defense grade (41.9) and allow 135 yards (sixth-highest) and 1.9 TDs (second-most) per game in non-overtime.

Despite his efficiency woes, this could be a week for Mixon to get right in a game where the Bengals offer a top-six team total. The veteran back has a great shot to score a rushing TD or two this weekend.

Over the last four games, Mostert has taken control of the Dolphins backfield averaging 68% of snaps, 69% of rushing attempts, and 59% route participation. In three out of four games, he has dominated the long-down-distance and two-minute opportunities.

Mostert ranks above the NFL average in missed tackles forced per attempt (+30, average yards after contact (+0.30), and 10-plus yard attempts (+2.5).

The Dolphins have a great matchup against the Lions, who allow the most rushing yards (163) and TDs (2) per game in non-overtime play. This matchup offers the No. 1 game total on the slate, and Miami has the No. 2 team total.

Mostert is a great mid-range RB2 with upside and is a SMASH play in Week 8

Check out all of the Fantasy Life Rankings!

🤫 If you have a good record, stash this WR. He should be back in a month.

💥 The Eagles make a big move. They are really going for it.

😎Dwain McFarland is stashing this QB. Find out why in the Utilization Report video.

💰 Get your player pool from a DFS pro. Find out who to play tonight, and why.

✈️ Russell Wilson is a psycho. He must be stopped.

🕵️‍♂️ A MNF conspiracy theory. Is ESPN lying?!

😤 Get this QB in your lineup. His matchup is too good this week.

📣 The Patriots announce their QB for Week 8. Is the controversy over?

🤔 Does Aaron Rodgers want to bench himself? Sounds like it.

🚑 An updated timeline on Mike Williams. Bummer.

Despite both teams flopping last Sunday, this TNF game has some true fantasy potential.

The seemingly broken Bucs will host the Ravens as 1-point home underdogs in a game with a respectable 45-point over/under.

The Bucs will be without WR Russell Gage and TE Cameron Brate, while Julio Jones is a true game-time decision.

The Ravens are mostly healthy, although Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, and Gus Edwards are all technically listed as questionable.

Here's everything we like tonight from a fantasy, DFS, and betting perspective:

Our research for these plays comes from, Run the Sims, Props.cash (Use promo code LIFE to save 20% on your subscription), PFF, OWS, and the Fantasy Life Rankings, Start/Sit tool, and Player Props tool.

Our resident betting sharps at Fantasy Life have a group chat. Lucky for you, they are leaking the alpha. Here's what our new betting specialist, Matt LaMarca came up with for this week...All odds via BetMGM

Brady has been airing the ball out at a crazy clip as of late. He’s attempted at least 40 passes in five straight games and averaged 308 passing yards during that stretch. His stats make taking the under on Brady’s passing prop a scary proposition.

Do you know what else is a scary proposition? Losing five out of your last six games. That’s what the Bucs are looking to avoid on Thursday, and it’s pretty clear that the pass-heavy attack hasn’t been working for them.

This matchup vs. the Ravens is the perfect opportunity for the Bucs to return to a more balanced attack. The Ravens are eighth in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, but they’re 23rd against the run. Expect the Buccaneers to ease Brady’s burden in this spot and look to get Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White more involved in the backfield.

Bateman got off to a fantastic start this season, scoring a long touchdown in each of the first two weeks. However, removing those plays from the equation leaves Bateman with a pretty unimpressive stat line for the year. Outside of those two catches, he has just 155 receiving yards and 13 receptions across five games.

Additionally, Bateman is currently at less than 100%. He returned to action last week, but he’s still been limited at practice due to a foot injury. He’s officially questionable for this matchup, but he should be able to suit up after getting in a full practice on Wednesday.

Bateman also faces a very tough matchup vs. the Buccaneers. Their offense has had plenty of issues recently, but their defense remains one of the best in the business. They’re fifth in pass defense DVOA, and they’ve allowed just 190 passing yards per game. However, there’s a chance Bateman could be a bit busier than usual this week – star tight end Mark Andrews is questionable after missing every practice this week – but that might not matter in this matchup.

The Titans have quietly won four straight games, putting them atop the AFC South at 4-2. Their method of victory has been pretty simple: ride Derrick Henry until the wheels fall off. He’s carried a Herculean workload, averaging 25 carries and four targets per game. He’s averaged more than 140 scrimmage yards in those contests, and with the Titans’ defense doing its part, it’s been enough to lead the team to victory.

That’s bad news for the Texans. They haven’t just been bad against the run this season, they’ve been downright awful. Houston ranks dead last in rush defense DVOA, and Josh Jacobs just ground them into oblivion. He racked up 143 yards and three touchdowns on just 20 carries, which was enough to lead the Raiders to an 18-point victory.

If the Texans couldn’t slow down Jacobs, how in the world would they stop Henry?

If Henry can put points on the scoreboard, the Texans aren’t likely to keep pace. They’ve averaged the fifth-fewest points per game, and the Titans have allowed 17 points or less in three straight weeks.

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