We all need Arthur Smith’s thoughts on climate change…
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Dollar Flight Club:
- It’s time to go back to the Bijan well
- Week 8 Rankings & Tiers: Two Smash plays
- QUICK HITTER: TNF’s best bet
- Bad news for the Niners
- Freedman’s Favorites: Big names to bet on
- It’s 10/26. Take it away, Peter Overzet…
Fantasy managers spent most of Sunday afternoon and evening panicking about Bijan Robinson.
And rightfully so.
There was no reporting before the game that indicated there were any issues, and yet he was limited to one carry for three yards.
We later learned that Robinson had been dealing with headaches all morning and that Arthur Smith didn’t want to risk anything.
This is a forward-thinking fantasy newsletter, so let’s aside some of the ridiculousness surrounding what transpired Sunday vs. the Bucs (the Falcons not disclosing his illness before the game, Smith bringing him in for a single carry in the 4th quarter, Smith taking pot shots at fantasy players) and instead focus on Week 8…
💡 Bijan Robinson is still a Top 12 RB with big upside
It’s natural to want to overreact to what happened in Week 7, but the overreactions have gone too far.
Robinson is currently going off the board as RB12 in Underdog weekly drafts behind backs like Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley, who are in worse spots.
He’s priced at $6,000 on DraftKings, and no one wants to play him.
It would appear that people are treating Sunday’s events as a reason to downgrade Bijan’s usage outlook going forward, as opposed to chalking it up as a missed game.
He returned to a full practice yesterday, and there is zero reason to think he won’t return to his normal role, which includes roughly 50% of the rushing attempts and a hearty 18% target share:
Regardless of headaches and Arthur Smith shenanigans, Robinson is still one of the most dynamic backs in football and trails only Alvin Kamara for the most RB receptions this season.
I’ll be happily starting Bijan wherever I have him vs. the Titans on Sunday (Arthur/Jonnu Smith revenge game, btw), and will target him aggressively in daily fantasy contests.
As Warren Buffet says, “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”
✈️ A Lifetime of Discount Flights?
24 Hours Left...for real this time!!!
The response has been so good that Dollar Flight Club is EXTENDING its offer for their Lifetime Membership for $129 (usually $1,690)...
Lifetime Members get massive discounts up to 90% off all flights for life!
Plan your next amazing adventure and fly roundtrip to Paris from $320, Hawaii from $197, or even catch an International NFL Game next season!
Get 93% off for life or try it for free now!
Start Your Next Travel Adventure Here!
It is time to make those tough lineup decisions for Week 8 of the fantasy football season. Below you’ll find Dwain’s thoughts on some must-start players. Find all of our positional rankings here.
💥 Running Back
🥈 Tier 2 – Breece Hall
Hall started the season slowly, recovering from his 2022 ACL injury, but has taken over the lead role. In Week 6, he registered a season-high 68% snap share, leading the team in rushing attempts and route participation.
If Hall’s enhanced role in the passing game from Week 6 sticks, he will move into matchup-proof territory. In leading game scripts, he will load up on attempts. In trailing game scripts, he will catch more check-down passes in catchup mode.
Over the last two games, the second-year RB has averaged 21 opportunities (attempts plus targets). With back-to-back top-four performances, Hall looks like a difference-maker for the second half of the fantasy season, and the Week 8 matchup is a juicy one.
The Jets are slight favorites versus the Giants, who allow the sixth-most rushing yards (137) and the fourth-most TDs (1.3) per game on the ground. With Hall’s ability to take any touch to the endzone, he has RB1 overall upside in this sort of matchup.
Hall is a SMASH play as my RB6 and No. 14 player overall in Week 8.
💥 Tight End
🥉 Tier 5 – Dalton Kincaid
The Bills won’t have Dawson Knox this week due to wrist surgery, and backup TE Quintin Morris is also out. That means we could see Kincaid will be in a full-time role.
Last week, the rookie delivered a season-high 16 fantasy points to finish as the TE7. He saw his second-highest number of routes since Week 1 – something that should climb even higher against the Buccaneers on Thursday night.
The rookie TE has a shot at 35-40 routes this week, putting him in the same range as elite TEs like Travis Kelce. Of course, Kincaid still has to do his part by earning targets. He hasn’t been great this year, with a 16% TPRR, but there are reasons for optimism.
He has a 21% target share without Dawson Knox on the field
He had his highest TPRR performance (28%) in Week 8
The Bills still don’t have an answer behind Stefon Diggs – they need a No. 2
The Buccaneers are stout against the run (assuming Vita Vea plays) and are beatable through the air, allowing the sixth-most passing yards per game (263). Three out of four Tampa Bay interior defenders have been liabilities in pass coverage, meaning Kincaid will see his fair share of mismatches. Look for the Round 1 NFL Draft pick to be a significant component of the Bills game plan.
Kincaid UPGRADES to high-end TE status as my No. 9 option despite zero teams on bye. I am starting him over names like Kyle Pitts, Dalton Schultz, Trey McBride and Jake Ferguson.
Check Out More Positional Rankings for Week 8!
The Fantasy Life FREE Bet Tracker is already loaded with a handful of plays for Thursday Night Football, and Matthew Freedman is here to give you a peek behind the curtain with one of his best bets for the game…
🤢 Uh oh, bad news for the Niners. Do not like to see this.
😆 Double check your merch before you exit the team store. Lmao.
🚀 5 players trending up in a MAJOR way. Adjust the ranks!
🏴☠️ Bills, Bucs, Thursday Night Football. Everything you need for the TNF betting and the DFS showdown slate.
🏆 We know you want to dominate Week 8. With a Fantasy OG, a Pro Bowl WR, and your favorite analysts, we have you covered.
🤐 The Titans make a QB announcement. I don’t think this is going to end well.
💰 A 3-4 team that could be 7-0 if not for a few plays? Sounds like a team to target in Week 8.
💭 Mike McDaniel is a modern-day philosopher. “The most important day of our lives.”
🤝 Will Saquon get traded? This sounds definitive.
📉 The Browns announce their Week 8 starter. It’s going to get ugly in Seattle.
👶 Sean McVay is now a dad. Cool story behind the name.
Every week, Matthew Freedman publishes a piece highlighting some of his favorite fantasy plays. Naturally, this piece is called “Freedman’s Favorites”. We told him to get more creative, to which he answered with a resounding “No”. Anyway, here are his favorites for Week 8…
🌟 Lamar Jackson (Ravens) at Cardinals
- Ravens: -8.5
- O/U: 44
- TT: 26.25
Jackson didn’t play poorly in Weeks 1-6 (69.9% completion rate, 7.0 AY/A), but the offense under new OC Todd Monken sputtered. Too often, pass catchers sabotaged drives with drops and red-zone opportunities turned into field goals instead of TDs.
In Week 7, though, Jackson channeled his 2019 MVP form with 357 yards and three TDs passing to zero INTs and 9-36-1 rushing. The Ravens offense is rounding into shape.
The Cardinals are No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (53.3%, per RBs Don’t Matter), and Jackson is now No. 4 in the MVP market.
🌟 Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs. Raiders
- Lions: -8.5
- O/U: 46
- TT: 27.25
If No. 1 RB David Montgomery (ribs) returns to action, then he’ll take precedence in this backfield, but I’m tentatively expecting him to miss one more game given that the Lions have tended to be conservative this year with players returning from injury and Montgomery didn’t practice at all last week.
In his two games without Montgomery (Weeks 3 & 7), Gibbs has amassed 208 yards and a TD on 28 carries, 12 targets, and a 73.9% snap rate. That works.
Gibbs could see significant work as a large home favorite, and the Raiders are No. 31 in both defensive rush EPA (0.025) and SR (46.9%).
🌟 Mike Evans (Buccaneers) at Bills
- Buccaneers: +8.5
- O/U: 42.5
- TT: 17
With 30-468-4 receiving in six games, Evans is on pace for his 10th consecutive 1,000-yard receiving season. He has eight-plus targets in every game this year but one.
The Bills are without No. 1 CB Tre'Davious White (Achilles, IR), and they underwhelmed against the one big-bodied No. 1 WR they’ve faced this year in Davante Adams (6-84-1, eight targets).
🌟 Rashee Rice (Chiefs) at Broncos
- Chiefs: -7.5
- O/U: 46.5
- TT: 27
Last week, with WR Justin Watson (elbow) sidelined, Rice had a season-high 65% route rate, and throughout his rookie season he has impressed with his 28% target rate, 9.0 yards per target, 7.5 yards after catch per reception.
I expect the Chiefs to be without Watson again this week, so Rice could see similar usage this week against the Broncos, who are No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.301) and SR (53.5%) and against whom he had 4-72-0 receiving on four targets in Week 6.
🌟 Darren Waller (Giants) vs. Jets
- Giants: -7.5
- O/U: 46.5
- TT: 27
Waller started the season slowly as he played through a hamstring injury and acclimated to the new offense (15-153-0 receiving, 23 targets in Weeks 1-4), but over the past three games he has asserted himself as the No. 1 pass catcher in the offense (20-227-1 receiving, 26 targets).
The Jets are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (13.2 FPPG).
MORE OF FREEDMAN’S FAVORITES FOR WEEK 8
