Get your dad a mini helmet for Father's Day. He'll love you forever. Not that he didn't already, but this will remove any doubt...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Pristine Auction:
- A familiar face joins the Chiefs backfield
- Pristine Auction is giving away a signed Matthew Stafford ball
- Matt Harmon's Reception Perception: CeeDee Lamb
- Geoff's favorite bets right now
- Team preview: New England Patriots
- It’s 6/14. Take it away, Peter Overzet…
You're not sold on Clyde Edwards-Helaire? I get it, he's been underwhelming.
You think Ronald Jones can't pass protect and makes too many mistakes? Ya, I'll buy it.
Then can I interest you in one Mr. Jerick McKinnon, who just re-signed with the Chiefs on a one-year deal.
If you watched the playoffs last year, you know why this could potentially be a big deal. McKinnon took over the backfield during three postseason games and put up some impressive numbers:
- 315 scrimmage yards
- 34 carries for 150 rushing yards (4.4 yards/carry)
- 14 of 17 targets for 165 yards and a score
Now I know a one-year deal this far removed from the start of free agency doesn't necessarily scream "WE WANT MCKINNON TO BE OUR BELLCOW BACK," but this isn't a super intimidating depth chart and Jerick has already shown he can climb it.
At the very least, it should give you pause on CEH...
Jerick McKinnon returning to Kansas City isn't the best news for CEH. Still possible CEH can break out this season and play the majority of passing downs, but think it's more likely there is still a rotation.
McKinnon feels a lot to me like 2021 Leonard Fournette— a RB who crushed in the previous playoffs, but still went overlooked in drafts the following year because everyone just assumed he would get replaced. Maybe you hopped off the Jerick wave, but I think it's time go get back on.
Speaking of a wave you should hop on—can I interest you in a Matthew Stafford signed football from our friends over at Pristine Auction?
Anyone who signs up for Pristine Auction with promo code LIFE will be entered to win.
Personally, I'm a big mini helmets guy. In fact, I have a signed Laviska Shenault mini helmet that I may or may not have to swap out for a Zay Jones mini helmet if things head south this year.
Pristine Auction is the most trusted Sports Memorabilia auction site, with an A+ BBB Rating. Auctions on Pristine Auction start at just $1 and each day there are over 1,000 autographed items available, so you are able to win signed authentic items at affordable prices.
Last week, an autographed Justin Herbert jersey sold for $110. That's the auction equivalent of him falling to the 6th round in a draft (narrator: that never happens).
Deals like this are happening all the time on Pristine Auction, and they have just about every player you could want including Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Laviska Shenault*, and so much more.
*Just making sure your paying attention.
Every item on Pristine Auction comes with a certificate of authenticity from the industry’s most reputable authenticators. In addition to being entered to win the signed Matthew Stafford ball, you'll also get $10 off your first item won when you use code “LIFE”.
Have fun shopping and may you channel your inner Cooper Kupp and secure that Matthew Stafford ball...
With Reception Perception, Matt Harmon studies the film on WRs, tracks and interprets the data, and then delivers the goods. Today he is swinging by the Fantasy Life offices to get us hyped on Dallas WR, CeeDee Lamb. Take it away, Matt...
CeeDee Lamb’s rookie season Reception Perception was certainly promising. The encore is better. It didn’t always materialize on the boxscore, especially as the 2021 season wore on, but RP shows that Lamb still demonstrated from start to finish he has legitimate No. 1 receiver upside.
Lamb primarily ran against zone coverage as a rookie and rarely faced press while working in the slot. Still, there were signs that he could be a pristine separator against physical, outside coverage. He slammed the door shut on any arguments to the contrary in Year 2.
Lamb’s 76.8% success rate vs. man coverage (91st percentile) and 76.9% success rate vs. press (82nd percentile) are more than good enough to believe Lamb can hack it as an outside player. He’s still fantastic at sifting through zones with an 81.9% success rate in 2021.
Lamb isn’t necessarily known for his route-running chops but it’s about time he gets credit as a separator. He cleared the NFL average success rate on all but one pattern in 2021.
If the Cowboys want to move Lamb inside for three-wide receiver looks, that’s fine. He’s more than capable of handling the layup work needed for that role and he’d likely gobble up targets. It would also put him in a position to win more after the catch. Lamb was “in space” for just seven percent of his sampled routes last year but broke multiple tackles on 15% of those chances. He needs more work in this area but he doesn’t have to line up in the slot.
All that said, a player who is this good as a vertical separator and against press coverage can dominate outside. The Cowboys’ offense loves those comeback and curl routes. Not only did Lamb run both at a high rate, he turned in sterling success rates. Let him work on those chunk plays outside. He’s also a strong ball-winner in tight coverage with a 75% contested catch rate.
Simply put: Placing Lamb in Amari Cooper’s vacated flanker/pre-snap motion role is going to be a sizable upgrade. Lamb hits a variety of positive benchmarks that Cooper has never consistently managed to clear in his career.
Lamb’s first two years have been solid. Given Cooper’s exit, Michael Gallup’s injury status, and rookie Jalen Tolbert being the sizable addition to the wide receiver room, he’s going to get the target and air yard share to make Year 3 special.
Lamb is a darkhorse candidate to lead the NFL in targets this season, especially if Dallas’ defense takes a step back in the efficiency category. He’s more than good enough to push for the league lead in yards if he gets that kind of volume. Being tethered to a quarterback like Dak Prescott is a win. Lamb has all three pillars I look for when seeing if a receiver has the WR1 overall in his range of outcomes.
For more Reception Perception, sign up here... And tell Matt we sent you!
☠️ Uh oh, another "RB by committee" backfield. Maurice Moton says don't act surprised, though.
🆕 A new backup for Kamara. Mark Ingram has competition, another veteran could be in the mix.
🎶 Guess who is back? After threatening to retire, Robbie Anderson changed his tune.
🤠 The RB getting slot snaps. A tale as old as time, but when it comes to the Cowboys I desperately want to believe this is true.
🏅 Can Keenan Allen be a WR1 again? Matthew Berry and co. debate.
When we're not drafting best ball teams, we do a little sports betting. Today Geoff shares some of his favorite NFL bets on the board right now...
Justin Jefferson +2800 Offensive Player of the year
Let’s start with a big one. While Cooper Kupp rightfully sits as the favorite in the offensive player of the year category at +800, it's Justin Jefferson at +2800 that should catch our eye as the potential value in this category.
This award has gone to non-QB positional players in three straight years (WRs won in 2021 and 2019) as voters have come to see this as a worthy “runner-up prize” to the QB-dominated MVP award – and a way to recognize excellence at other positions. Jefferson is entering his third-year in the league and will be under the guidance of Sean McVay disciple Kevin O’Connell, a fact worth noting as Cooper Kupp, Ja’Marr Chase, and Davante Adams (1st ,3rd and 4th in receiving yards last year) all played under McVay, or a coach that worked under McVay at some point, in 2021.
Jefferson ranked second in yardage last year among WRs but fourth in receptions and posted a 12.4 aDOT that was the highest among those top four receivers, by far. Even if that number comes down, expect a better catch-rate and for Jefferson to perhaps even bridge the gap in targets between him and Kupp this year with a new offensive-minded head coach. At +2800, it’s a small risk, big reward kind of bet on a player who looks ready to challenge for best WR-in-the-game status in 2022.
San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC West +165
Breaking down the NFC West isn’t nearly as hard in 2022 as it was in 2021 (when it felt like all four teams could earn playoff berths). The Seahawks are starting Geno Smith or Drew Lock at QB, making them a hard pass at any price. The Cardinals are at an intriguing +400 but seem almost certain to deal with some regression on offense with Kyler Murray sitting out OTAs and DeAndre Hopkins missing the first six games of the year.
Los Angeles is the favorite at +125 but have to absorb losses of Left Tackle Andrew Whitworth (retired), and Right Guard Austin Corbett (Free Agency) on their offensive line. Any regression there would not be good for a now 34-year-old Matthew Stafford, who has dealt with numerous injuries throughout his career. The 49ers have slowly made nice with Deebo Samuel, added Charvarius Ward to help improve a weaker secondary and also may have a potential ace up their sleeve with QB Trey Lance. The unknown factor with Lance right now (the presumed 2022 starter) is helping keep these odds suppressed but, given how well the 49ers performed with what we’ll call average quarterbacking in 2021, that kind of reaction seems unfounded at best.
This is a good time (and price) to buy-in on a team that was one scoring drive away from the Super Bowl themselves last year.
In this series, our contributors will disclose their favorite players and tell us why they can't stop drafting them. Today, we have our CEO, Eliot Crist disclosing his love for JD McKissic...
My Guy: JD McKissic
Underdog Fantasy ADP: 183.2 (RB 55)
Why: Regardless if you are a Zero RB truther or love late round value, McKissic should be a player on your radar. He is already starting to climb up boards, moving up six spots in the last two days alone per 4for4.
Before missing the final six games of the season, he averaged 4.8 targets per game (the 7th highest rate in all of football). That was no fluke either: the year prior McKissic averaged 6.9 targets per game, the second highest rate in all of football. Targets are worth 2.8 times as much as a carry so it's a valuable role we are looking to attack and gives him a nice weekly floor for such a late round pick.
Not only do we value this role in fantasy, but the Commanders clearly value it as well. After McKissic agreed to a contract with the Bills, Washington came in and matched it. The offer made him the 21st highest paid running back in the league.
The Commanders also brought in Carson Wentz this offseason to be their new QB, who has never been shy dumping it off to running backs. Last season, Wentz targeted running backs 24% of the time, a top 10 rate. Last season Wentz’s pass-catching back, Nyheim Hines, had the second-highest target per route run in the slot rate among any running at 33.3%.
When late round guys carve out a valuable role and are efficient at it I will always have interest. McKissic fits that bill. JJ Zachariason, sums it up well:
Running backs who've exceeded PPR points per game expectation (based on average draft position) by 3+ points per game in each of the last two seasons:
- Jonathan Taylor
- D'Andre Swift
- My father, JD McKissic
I will admit that I am a sucker for pass catching running backs so players like McKissic and James White have always had a special place in my heart. But when players like this are going in the last few rounds of drafts and unknown 4th round rookies are going in Round 12, I will always take the safer bet over the shiny new toy likely to flame out.
The season is fast approaching, which means it is time for us to get to know all of these NFL teams and who we should be drafting and fading after a busy offseason. In today's team preview, Pete previews the New England Patriots, a team he is very qualified to write about as the proprietor of GreatFitPatriots.com, granted it hasn't been updated since Tom Brady left.
Most NFL teams don’t have the luxury of “retooling” after a dynastic period as opposed to a hard rebuild, but of course the New England Patriots somehow managed to quickly weather the post-Tom Brady storm with a 10-7 finish last year and a playoff appearance.
What makes this all the more impressive is that they did it with a rookie QB, Mac Jones. Jones played well in 2021 and there’s already rumors that the team is ready to take off the training wheels and air it out more in 2022.
The Patriots lack high-end receiving talent, but have enough depth on both sides of the ball to remain a division contender in the AFC South.
⚙️ Offseason changes
- At WR, the team traded the Dolphins for veteran WR DeVante Parker and selected speedster Tyquan Thornton 50th overall in the NFL draft
- At RB, the team added rookie RB Pierre Strong in the 4th round and hybrid RB/WR Ty Montgomery to an already crowded backfield
- On defense, the team added safety Jabrill Peppers, cornerbacks Malcolm Butler and Terrance Mitchell, and linebacker Mack Wilson
- The team said goodbye to a handful of impact players as well, including Chase Winovich (traded to Browns), J.C. Jackson (signed with Chargers), Kyle Van Noy (released), Shaq Mason (traded to Bucs) and Brandon Bolden (signed with Raiders)
✨ Team vibes
The vibes in New England are pretty solid right now. Last offseason they spent like crazy in Free Agency and drafted Mac Jones in the first round. Now buzz is building on Jones’ potential to take a second year leap and it’s easy to see how the rest of the offense could follow suit.
If one of Parker, Thornton, or Jakobi Meyers could emerge as a big time playmaker this offseason and pull some defenders out of the box, it could do wonders for both the play action and run game.
Fun fact: over the past 5 seasons Parker has the most receptions on tight-window throws in the NFL with 69 (nice).
Outside of Damien Harris, every Patriots skill-position player has an ADP outside of the Top 100 on Underdog Fantasy. This is a team to target heavily because of the cost and the upside if they let Mac cook a bit more this year. I have my favorites (see below), but I want pieces of this entire offense, even if the backfield looks like a mess.
🎯Draft targets
- Rhamondre Stevenson (Underdog ADP 118)
- Hunter Henry (Underdog ADP 152)
- Mac Jones (Underdog ADP 183)
- Tyquan Thornton (Underdog ADP 215)
👋Draft fades
- Damien Harris (Underdog ADP 96)
Football in 2022, where running backs are wide receivers, tight ends are wide receivers, wide receivers are running backs, and quarterbacks are dating witches. twitter.com/AroundTheNFL/s…
