🩺The Replacements: A QB Story

It's time we learn to Live, Laugh, and Love QBs...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

• Bud Light Six Pack Recap: Fantasy takeaways from Week 14
  
• Kendall's Overreaction Monday: Zac Taylor hates your fantasy team
• LaMarca's First Look: Two Teams to Target
• MNF: Patriots @ Cardinals
• It’s 12/12. Take it away, Cooterdoodle…

Mom! Wake up! A new Tom Brady meme dropped.

Buckle up buttercups, because we’ve got a lot to cover at the QB position in today’s newsletter. And what better way to start than by talking about the goat. That’s right, Brock Purdy looked pretty against the Bucs as he pulled off the win with a 28 point lead in his first career NFL start, but more on that later. 

Pretty amazing that Tom Brady got to see Joe Montana, Steve Young and Brock Purdy play in person.

— Brian Peacock (@BDPeacock)
Dec 11, 2022

Let’s recap the unfortunate QB injuries from Week 14.

Mike White (life knocked out of him) - White left the game twice with rib injuries after taking massive hits from the Bills. But like a Chumbawamba song from 1997, he got back up again and returned to finish the game. We’ll know more about his injuries in the coming days, but White managed 268 passing yards in spite of the pain.

Russell Wilson (concussion) - Before he was ruled out in the 4th quarter with a head injury, Wilson recorded a season-high of 3 passing TDs against the Chiefs. Brett Rypien stepped in for the remainder and finished with 16 yards and 1 TD.

Kenny Pickett (concussion) - For the second time this season, Pickett has been placed in the concussion protocol after leaving the game against the Ravens with only 16 rushing yards. 

Tyler Huntley (concussion) - Huntley, who was filling in for Lamar Jackson (knee), found himself leaving the field in the third quarter. He completed 8 passes for 88 yards before Anthony Brown stepped in and the Ravens' defense helped to secure the win.

On a brighter note, plenty of QBs stayed healthy and found the end zone multiple times this week. We’ll dive into those juicy results below…

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 💰 Matt LaMarca is betting: Cardinals +1.5

This is an interesting matchup. The Patriots have been better than the Cardinals this season, but are we sure they deserve to be road favorites? The Patriots’ six wins this season have come against the Steelers, Lions, Browns, Colts, and Jets twice. Their win over the Lions does look more impressive, given how well they’ve played recently, but the Lions were without D’Andre Swift and had Amon-Ra St. Brown available for just 32% of their snaps.

The Cardinals are coming off a bye last week, and they played well in their last contest. They had DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown available for the first time all season, and they outgained the Chargers by 55 yards in a one-point loss. The Patriots’ defense is not nearly as good as their year-long numbers suggest, so I think the Cardinals can move the ball against them. That should give them the chance to pull off the small upset.

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Cooterdoodle shares her six big takeaways from the week's action compliments of our friends over at Bud Light. Let's crack open that six pack, Cooter...

🍺 1. Trevor Lawrence fires on all cylinders and wakes up Evan Engram

Trevor Lawrence made it look easy against the Titans, where he threw a career-high of 368 yards and 3 TDs. And just to put a little icing on the metaphorical touchdown cake, Lawrence logged his own rushing TD, sealing his day with a total of 4 scores. 

For years ‘JAG’ has stood for “Just Another Guy,” but the Jags were more than ordinary this week and challenged the acronym. But Lawrence’s peak-level performance was somewhat outshined by the fact that nearly half of his offensive stats came from his connection with Evan Engram. Engram led TEs with 162 yards and 2 TDs on the day. Not too shabby for a Jag.

Evan Engram somehow scored 39 fantasy points today and now sits - get ready for this - FOURTH in total fantasy points scored by a TE this season.

— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL)
Dec 11, 2022

🍺 2. The 49ers look purdy solid

If you paid attention, I told you not to fret about Christian McCaffrey last week with the QB change in San Francisco. CMC dominated at the position with a total of 153 yards and 2 TDs. But the real story coming from this matchup was Brock MF’n Purdy. (‘MF’ means Many Fantasy points, probably.) Not only did he throw for 185 yards and 2 TDs, but Purdy was useful on his feet, where he rushed for a TD as well. 

We knew the 49ers' defense would look good, but the scoreboard looked even better for Niners fans in their win over Tampa Bay. Who knows what the future will bring as we approach the playoffs, but it looked bright for Purdy and the 49ers.

Brock Purdy to Tom Brady

— Pardon My Take (@PardonMyTake)
Dec 11, 2022

🍺 3. BAL steals from the Steelers

We talked about QB injuries earlier, but there’s more salt to pour on the wound in Pittsburgh. Not only did Kenny Pickett exit the game early with a concussion, but his fill-in, Mitch Trubisky, made sure to spread the ball around… by throwing plenty to both teams. 

Trubisky logged 276 yards and 1 TD in Week 14, which is more than we can say for Derek Carr, but his 3 INTs did not go unnoticed.

there have been exactly two games this season where a QB has subbed into a game and thrown 3 interceptions:
—Kenny Pickett subbing in for Mitch Trubisky Week 4
—Mitch Trubisky subbing in for Kenny Pickett Week 14

— Rodger Sherman (@rodger)
Dec 11, 2022

🍺 4. DET/MIN score big, but key players missed the memo

On Sunday, Eliot told us Jared Goff would have a “dream matchup” against the Vikings in Week 14, and neither team disappointed with a combined total of 57 points scored. Unfortunately, the mishmash of TDs found all the wrong hands as far as ADP is concerned. Justin Jackson, Josh Reynolds, and K.J. Osborn all scored on Sunday, while your early-round draft picks missed out on the fun.

57 points in the Lions-Vikings game and 0 combined touchdowns for Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, D’Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams, and TJ Hockenson.

— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge)
Dec 11, 2022

🍺 5. Jerry Jeudy triples down

When talking about the range of outcomes, I’m not sure anyone saw this one coming… Jerry Jeudy scored not once but three times against Kansas City. Denver hasn’t seen a hat trick like this in years. Prior to this outing, Jeudy had only scored a total of 3 TDs across the entire 2022 season. Broncos fans were more than thrilled to watch their offense show signs of life after the lethargic games they’ve had to witness so far this year.

I’m in an emotionally abusive relationship with the Denver Broncos

— Tori (@torisuemagoo)
Dec 11, 2022

🍺 6. Miami's offense is MIA

In what many expected to be a shootout, the Dolphins left us wanting more in Week 14. While Jeff Wilson left the game with a hip injury, that was the least of their offensive troubles. Tua Tagovailoa did not look like himself as he peppered the field with incomplete passes. He completed a total of 10 of his 28 attempts for 145 yards and a TD.

I regret praising Tua on national TV tonight.

— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR)
Dec 12, 2022

The only player to live up to fantasy managers’ hopes was Tyreek Hill who finished with 81 yards and 1 TD. The Dolphins face the Bills next in Week 15, who just sent Mike White to the hospital. Let’s hope Tua gets back on track or this could get ugly.

🤢It's hard to defend this defense. Start your players against MIN.

🤕Mike White took critical hits on Sunday. But he found his way back on the field.

👕Diggs didn’t look great this week. On or off the field.

🤑A QB going under the radar in DFS. This player could surprise if the script flips.

🤔It’s hard to sit Travis Etienne. It’s even harder to start him. 

🤝A 1st down is a 1st down. Dan Campbell does what it takes to get them.

🤷‍♂️ It's probably time to call it on this rookie WR. It was miserable while it lasted. 

We're humans who play fantasy football, which means we are prone to overreact. In this weekly series, Kendall will lead us in overreacting to Sunday's action...

😡 Zac Taylor hates your fantasy team

Fool us once, shame on you; fool us twice, shame on us. 

For the second time, questions swirled around Bengals head coach Zac Taylor and his lack of transparency around a key fantasy contributor’s injury.

Wide receiver Tee Higgins didn’t return to Sunday’s game against the Browns after playing one snap on the opening drive. And that goose egg in the points column probably hurt A LOT of people in a critical fantasy playoff week. Let me just say my condolences.

 An apology won’t help, but just know we are here for you.

Here’s why this injury is weird. Higgins popped up on the Bengals’ injury report in the middle of last week and was limited at practice with a hamstring injury. However, Taylor expected him to be ready in Week 14 and gave no injury designation. Does this sound familiar? Oh yeah, it happened in Week 5 against the Baltimore Ravens — where he also didn’t play. Taylor will be hearing from all our fantasy football lawyers. I’m unsure how they can keep getting away with this, but not listing a player on the final injury report as (at least) questionable is shady. We won’t forget this, Zac.

🤫 We should never listen to Miles Sanders again

Remember this gem of a video that was circulating through fantasy football Twitter during the offseason? It was Eagles running back Miles Sanders saying “I can’t get you the points that you want … don’t pick me in fantasy football.”

Hindsight is 20-20, but hopefully, you did not listen to Sanders. In Week 14 he secured his first-ever 1,000-yard rushing season — making him the first Eagle to do so since LeSean McCoy in 2014 (1,319). Sanders is now at 1,068 rushing yards, 11 touchdowns, and 5.2 yards per carry. Hats off to Sanders for an incredible season and to the Eagles in general. 

What we have been witnessing from quarterback Jalen Hurts is special. Since Week 6, he has: 1,798 passing yards, 18 passing TDs, 1 INT, 116.0 passer rating, and 420 rushing yards. 

The Eagles officially clinched a playoff spot after their dominating win against the New York Giants and now will look to lock up the No. 1 seed in the next coming weeks. But now we know better, right? Let’s just all agree never to listen to fantasy advice directly from players, especially when it leads to them having one of the best seasons of their careers. 

Congratulations, Miles Sanders (but we still don’t forgive you).

Timing is crucial when it comes to sports betting. Lines get released late on Sunday night, and every Monday, our betting specialist Matt LaMarca drops by to give you his first look at the betting markets. All lines from BetMGM...

💸 Colts +4.5 (@ Vikings)

• Pick: Colts +4.5

I’m honestly starting to feel bad about how often I’m writing up teams against the Vikings. It’s not that the Vikings are a bad football team; they’re just not nearly as good as their record. That’s caused them to become overvalued in the betting market, which has created some opportunities to fade them in recent weeks.

The Vikings entered Week 14, ranked 29th in yardage differential and 20th in Football Outsiders DVOA. They were outgained by the Lions once again, and this time, there was no miraculous fourth-quarter comeback.

Now, they’ll have to take on an underrated Colts squad. They're coming off a massive 35-point loss to the Cowboys in their last contest, but the final scoreline wasn’t an accurate representation of how competitive that game was. The Colts trailed by just two points entering the fourth quarter, but a series of turnovers allowed the Cowboys to run away with the game late.

Buying low on teams coming off a blowout has historically been a great idea. Teams have gone 73-41-5 against the spread following a loss of at least 35 points since 2003. The Colts are also coming off a bye in Week 14, so they’ve had some extra time to prepare for this matchup as well.

I expect this line to move in the Colts’ favor throughout the week, so locking this bet in early makes a lot of sense. We’re currently getting the key numbers of three and four, and that might not be the case come kickoff.

💸 Commanders -4.5 (vs. Giants)

• Pick: Commanders -4.5

These two teams met just two weeks ago and ultimately played to a draw. That game was played in New York, and the Commanders were listed as two-point road favorites. Homefield advantage isn’t worth nearly as much in 2022 as it was years ago, but it feels like this line should be a bit higher. Moving from New York to Washington should be worth more than just 2.5 points.

Additionally, the Giants’ injury situation continues to look dire. They’ve been thin at receiver all season, but the injuries on defense are piling up. They were without Leonard Williams, Adoree’ Jackson, and Xavier McKinney against the Eagles, which helped Philly rack up 48 points and 437 yards.

The Commanders are obviously not as good as the Eagles, but they have played some excellent football of late. They’re 6-1-1 over their past eight games, which has propelled them to the No. 6 spot in the NFC playoff picture. They’re currently tied with the Giants at 7-5-1, so this game has massive playoff implications.

The Commanders are also coming off a bye in Week 14, and favorites have historically fared well with extra time to prepare. They’ve gone 169-130-8 against the spread since 2003, which is another point in the Commanders’ favor.

The Giants’ injury report will be important to monitor this week, but as long as they don’t get back a ton of players, I like the Commanders’ chances of covering this number.

It's island game time, and we have you covered from a fantasy, DFS, and betting perspective. We also have previews and picks for every game in our Game Hub! Patriots @ Cardinals, take it away Chris...

🏆 Patriots (-1.5) at Cardinals – 43.5 total 

Maybe the Patriots will listen to Mac Jones and switch up their passing game...

Since resuming the starting job, Jones is 26th in play-action rate and 30th in air yards per attempt. Plus, he’s 25th in deep-ball rate despite having a league-average success rate on downfield throws. Simply put, his aggression isn’t a liability. However, he might not have the time to look far on Sunday.

Arizona is 28th in dropback success rate allowed and has given up the ninth-most passing yards per game this season. However, they’ve used their defensive front to cover up their issues on the backend. They’re sixth in pass rush win rate with the third-highest blitz rate. But even if they get in Jones’s face, he’s got options nearby.

Rhamondre Stevenson leads the team in targets with Jones under center. Sure, we love volume, but efficiency indicates future usage. Luckily, Stevenson has this too. He’s first among all New England pass-catchers in YPRR at 1.79. Jones may want to showcase his arm more, but Stevenson will again be a staple of the passing game.

On the flip side, Kyler Murray has a shot at making more highlight-reel plays against the Patriots. Dual-threat passers have averaged 69.7 yards against New England. Lamar Jackson smoked them for 107 yards and a score in Week 3, while we watched Justin Fields ascend in primetime seven weeks ago. After missing two games, Murray had a 57.1% designed run rate in his first game back. He’s had the bye week to recharge and should be gliding across the field on Sunday. The only problem will be figuring out who his best passing option will be.

Primary WRs from competent offenses have given the Patriots fits; Stefon Diggs (9-91-1) and Justin Jefferson (11-139-1) are the latest examples. DeAndre Hopkins hasn’t had week-winning results over the last month, but still leads the team in targets (63) and red-zone looks (5). Given Kliff Kingsbury’s bright idea to move Hopkins into the slot on top of his perimeter usage (20.6% slot rate), Hopkins is in a prime spot on Sunday.

Evan Engram just knocked someone, somewhere out of the fantasy playoffs

— Kate Magdziuk (@FFballblast)
Dec 11, 2022