Anyone know about a second-chance bracket pool?
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by BetMGM.
NCAA Friday: Back the Lobos vs. the slumping Tigers
NBA: We’ve got bets on the pros, too!
UFC Fight Night: Buy low on the former champ?
It’s 3/22. Take it away, Matt LaMarca
March Madness. The name says it all.
Thursday wasn’t the wildest first day in NCAA tournament history, but it still featured its fair share of upsets. Four double-digit seeds punched their tickets to the Round of 32, including a No. 14 seed.
In case you missed out, let’s take a quick look at some of the potential Cinderellas that emerged on Thursday:
🐻 Oakland Golden Grizzlies
BY FAR the biggest shocker on opening night. They were going toe-to-toe with the biggest blue blood in college basketball, and they showed zero fear.
Jack Gohlke became a household name, knocking down 10 3-pointers in the upset victory. Meanwhile, potential lottery picks Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard combined for just 13 points on 3-14 shooting.
This is what the NCAA tournament is all about. If these teams met 100 times, Kentucky probably win 95 of them. But sometimes, a former D-III non-scholarship grad student steals the show.
With the win, Oakland — the Michigan version, not the California one — advances to face another Cinderella in NC State. If they can get past Kentucky, why can’t they win one more?
🤴 Duquesne Dukes
Duquesne entered the tourney as a No. 11 seed, which should have immediately raised some red flags for their opponent. No. 11s haven’t just been competitive against No. 6 seeds in recent years; they’ve been better than them. They own a winning record against No. 6s since 2010, and they’ve been absolute money against the spread.
The Dukes were thoroughly in control in their matchup vs. BYU, leading from the opening whistle to the final bell. They trailed for just 31 seconds and were able to pull away in the second half.
BYU was also considered better than your typical No. 6 seed. They were supposedly looking at a No. 4 or 5 seed, but the committee had to drop them to No. 6 since they can’t play on Sundays.
None of that mattered to Duquesne. A date with Illinois awaits on Saturday.
🦆 Oregon Ducks
Oregon winning should’ve surprised no one. It certainly didn’t surprise Vegas, who had the Ducks listed as favorites against No. 6 seed South Carolina. They responded with 87 points in a comfortable victory and appear to be peaking at the right time.
The best part? They got 40 points from Jermaine Couisnard, who transferred from — you guessed it — South Carolina.
The crazy thing is Oregon probably wouldn’t even have made the Big Dance if they hadn’t won the Pac-12 tourney.
Now, they’ll square off with Creighton in a matchup that could be full of offense. Creighton was one of the best offensive squads in college all year, so we’ll see if the Ducks can keep up. If Couisnard goes off for another 40 points they’ll certainly have a shot.
🐺 NC State Wolfpack
D.J. Burns Jr. Enough said.
Burns is the type of player that was made for the tourney. Every year, we fall in love with a big-bodied player, and Burns fits that description in 2024. It started during the ACC tournament, and it will roll on for at least one more game.
With Thursday in the rearview mirror, let’s dive into Friday’s slate. Kody Malstrom has a few best bets already teed up for the early slate, and he’ll have a full write-up for the late slate as well…
🌵 (11) New Mexico (-2.5) vs. (6) Clemson (-110, DraftKings)
The timing could not be any better for New Mexico as they get a Clemson squad whose defensive production has fallen off a cliff. The Tigers come into the contest ranked 67th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, and a big reason for their skid has been their inability to smother opposing looks. In their past three games, opposing offenses are averaging an Effective Field Goal Percentage of 57.2%
That spells potential disaster against a Lobos squad that excels at generating high-quality looks at the rim from their slashing guards. Jaelen House, Jamal Mashburn Jr., and Donovan Dent are all capable scoring guards, with big man JT Toppin hovering around the interior. All average over 12 points per game and will apply serious pressure on Clemson’s defense in their efforts to challenge their looks while simultaneously spacing them out.
With New Mexico scoring at a consistent rate, it puts Clemson in a less-than-ideal spot due to their slow pace of play. Clemson plays at a methodical pace, ranking 260th in Tempo per Kenpom. A slow-paced squad with a regressing defense has been a popular fade spot in this best-bet series, and Clemson fits the perfect mold of an early loss target because of it.
🦉 (9) Northwestern vs (8) FAU (-3.5) (-110, Caesars)
Like New Mexico, FAU is another team I talked about with Matthew Freedman to monitor as they face a hobbled Northwestern squad.
Since recording, Matt Nicholson has been ruled out, and FAU has been steamed up to -3.5. For good reason, too, as Northwestern is now devoid of options to defend the interior. Vladislav Goldin was already a matchup nightmare as he is a mountain of a man with a soft touch around the rim, and he should impose his will on the block against smaller defenders.
Goldin’s ability to score at a consistent rate is even more problematic for Northwestern, as offensive possessions will come at a premium with their slow pace of play. The Wildcats heavily rely on perimeter production on minimal opportunities, bringing in a dangerous amount of variance against an FAU offense that can score at a more consistent rate.
I like FAU up to -4.0 and would also use them as a low-juiced option in two-team moneyline parlays.
More Picks for Friday’s NCAA Slate!
🤑 It's Tourney Time!!
It's day 2!! Get in on the action today!
That's right! It's day two hoops fans, wait no longer and get in on the madness today with BetMGM.
Register NOW and take advantage of BetMGM's Amazing First Bet Offer! Get up to $1,500 back in Bonus Bets if your First Bet doesn't win.
Just in time for the college basketball tournament!!! What could be better than that?
Claim up to $1500 in Bonus Bets!
🏀 More basketball? Why not?? Best bets for Friday’s NBA slate.
✍️ Because who doesn’t need more March Madness betting info? Player projections for Friday’s games are live.
🏆 Another Dunk of the Year contender? Chet Holmgren throws his hat into the ring.
⬇️ It’s official — the Dodgers will not be going 162-0. Not exactly a stellar debut for the $325M man.
🏛️ Down goes Kentucky! Time to build another tower in Vegas.
🏒 They’re called the Predators for a reason. Nashville sets a franchise record and looks primed for a playoff run.
⚡ Chuck! It’s your cousin Marvin! The Chargers’ odds of drafting this star WR are getting shorter.
❌ It didn’t take long for our first NCAA tournament bad beat. Arizona scores just three points in the final 4:40 to lose by the hook.
👑 The Midas touch? Duquesne secures their first tourney win since 1969 thanks to a little help from King James.
The UFC continues its run of Fight Nights at the Apex Facility this Saturday. Former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas and Amanda Ribas headline the 13-fight card filled with prospects looking for a statement win to propel themselves up the rankings. Mark Drumheller gets you ready with his UFC Vegas 89 best bets.
🌹 Rose Namajunas Over Amanda Ribas by KO/TKO (+155; FanDuel)
Namajunas is one of the most accomplished fighters to compete in women's MMA. However, she still finds her career at a crossroads after a lackluster flyweight debut resulted in her second consecutive loss. A win puts her one or two fights away from competing for the belt again, but a third-straight loss will make it incredibly difficult to maintain relevance in her new division.
Betting this fight comes down to your expectation of which version of Namajunas we will see on Saturday night. Here’s why I’m expecting the return of “Thug Rose” in a very big way.
Ribas’ biggest liability is her striking defense. She has poor head movement and relies on pressure to force her opponents out of position. That won’t happen against Namajunas. The two-time former strawweight champion has elite footwork. She is the most cerebral striker Ribas has faced to date and will be able to counter her aggression with precision and accuracy.
Ribas isn’t built to handle the striking acumen of Namajunas for five rounds. The accumulation of damage will overwhelm her both physically and mentally. Three of Ribas’ four career losses have come via knockout. I am not 100% positive the former champ’s power will translate long-term against durable flyweights, but this is a matchup made for her to exploit Ribas’ questionable chin.
🤼 A.J. Dobson Over Edmen Shahbazyan (+170; DraftKings)
Understanding a fighter's limitations can be very useful in finding value in a live underdog. Shahbazyan was on course to be the next big thing in the middleweight division after starting his UFC career with three straight finishes. However, once the promotion pitted him against ranked opponents, his poor defensive grappling and limited cardio were exposed in a major way.
Those same challenges can still be exploited against lower-level competition. Shahbazyan was taken down six times in his latest loss to Anthony Hernandez.
Hernandez’s grappling is far superior to what he will face Saturday, but Dobson still nails takedowns at a 75% clip. He is a powerful wrestler with a high motor, a combination that Shahbazyan has struggled to overcome throughout his career.
Dobson’s +170 price tag is a product of an underwhelming 1-2 record, but I contend it doesn’t properly reflect his ability to plant Shahbazyan on his back and proceed to ground and pound his way to an upset win.
