Aaron Rodgers is a job creator…
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Hims:
- What the Titans need to do
- Fantasy Landing Spots: Two rookies
- The RB set to explode in 2023
- Superflex Rookie Draft: Picks 7 to 12
- It’s 5/4. Take it away, Peter Overzet
I think you could argue that the Titans have the worst QB room in the entire league.
I’m all ears if you can come up with a worse signal-caller triumvirate for 2023 than a 34-year-old veteran with a bum ankle (Ryan Tannehill), a rookie QB who plummeted out of the first round to pick No. 33 (Will Levis), and a second-year player (Malik Willis) who got benched for a QB on the practice squad (Joshua Dobbs) before a must-win Week 18 matchup vs. the Jaguars.
While you rack your brain, I’ll make the case for what I think the Titans should do to clean up this mess…
1. Trade Ryan Tannehill To The Falcons
Tannehill carries a $36.6 million cap hit for 2023, including an outrageous $27 million in base salary. If they were to trade or release him before June 1, they could save $17.8 million against the cap (while eating $18.8 million in dead money).
Let’s face it … the Titans aren’t going to be good this year regardless, and if they don’t move Tannehill now, Tennessee will risk getting nothing for him in the 2024 offseason when he becomes a free agent.
It makes too much sense for this team to pull the bandaid off the rebuild as soon as possible, save some money, and restock the pick cupboard for 2024 (they currently have just five picks in next year’s NFL Draft).
There were already some rumors that a Tanny trade to the Falcons was in the works before the draft, and it makes sense. Tannehill could reunite with Arthur Smith and immediately enjoy the best-supporting cast of his career with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts.
2. Start Will Levis
The most likely outcome is that Levis isn’t good. He struggled with decision-making at Kentucky and threw 23 interceptions in his last two seasons. I know this isn’t a great sales pitch, but bear with me. The problem is that the Titans have no choice but to see what they have in Levis after investing the No. 33 overall pick.
GM Ran Carthon said on Friday that they were considering taking him at pick No. 11, so it’s very clear that the Titans have high hopes for him.
It might be ugly, but Tennessee needs to find out as soon as possible if they can build their franchise around Levis. Sticking with Tannehill for an extra year — with zero chance of being a contender — only delays the rebuilding process while also hurting their chances at the No. 1 overall pick in 2024.
There you go, Titans. A simple two-step plan to reboot the franchise on the house. You’re welcome.
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💪 The RB set to explode even more in 2023. FA and the draft broke perfectly for him.
🚀 The rookie TE you should be willing to draft. It’s a better cost-adjusted play than his teammate.
🏃♂️ Derrick Henry putting in the work. Who needs a track?
💥 The most explosive RBs in football. Two names stand out.
😎 Hot Best Ball Summer is approaching. Things are heating up around here.
🏌️♂️ Mahomes & Kelce vs … Steph Curry and Klay Thompson??! Who ya got?
🚓 The other Mahomes is in trouble. Awful.
📞 Quentin Johnston gets the call. And gives a nice Mother’s Day gift.
With the chaos of the draft behind us, our biggest offseason task awaits: figuring out how to value the rookies. Draft capital is part of the equation, but a player’s landing spot (and place on the depth chart) can also lead to some fun narratives. Today, Chris Allen shares two freshmen he’ll be targeting in best ball drafts…
🎯 WR Jordan Addison: Vikings (23rd Overall)
OK, so I made part of my job easy. Addison’s a no-brainer.
Dwain’s rookie model loved him (85th percentile, WR2), Eliot mocked the former Trojan to the Chargers in the first round, and I highlighted his efficiency independent of alignment in a pre-draft rookie profile. A first-round selection only confirms that Addison has talent.
But we can find fantasy value at the intersection of talent and situation. And while the Vikings showed us with their wallet that they agree Addison can be an instant playmaker, Minnesota’s offensive situation lends itself to the USC product becoming fantasy relevant as early as Week 1.
Kirk Cousins hit a career-high in pass attempts, and the Vikings finished sixth in pass rate over expected (PROE) last season. However, it’s not just that coach Kevin O’Connell let Kirko Chainz sling it all over the yard that’ll boost Addison’s fantasy stock. It’s the types of targets he’ll earn.
After the trade for T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota soared to third in target rate to the TE position in obvious passing situations and ranked 12th in EPA per play on third and fourth-down attempts. But, with Kirk’s decision-making, relying on a TE running shallow routes has obvious (read: painful) drawbacks.
Addison instantly steps in as the, at worst, third option for Cousins to start the season with more looks coming his way throughout the year (RIP K.J. Osborn’s fantasy value). His separation skills will earn Kirk’s trust and raise his weekly floor.
🎯 RB Chase Brown: Bengals (163rd Overall)
I didn’t have to dig deep for this one, either, because I’m a Bengals fan, but Chase Brown isn’t on everyone’s radar yet. Regardless, let’s stick with the “intersection of talent and situation” quip for a bit.
There’s no doubt that Brown’s rushing skillset lags behind his classmates. He split the totes in the Illini backfield until his final season … at age 23. Even then, he wasn’t the most powerful runner. His two-year samples of missed tackles forced per attempt (0.25) and yards after contact per attempt (2.87) sit below the class average. So, Brown’s situation needs to make up for his talent deficit.
Let’s take a stroll down Narrative Street.
Joe Mixon was a draft winner, as Cincinnati didn’t sink significant draft capital into replacing Samaje Perine. But Brown’s final-season stats hint at a profile similar to the Bengals’ former backup. And Perine began to eat into Mixon’s workload late last season.
Chris Evans never saw more than five snaps in a single game and remained inactive through the playoffs. Brown should be able to bypass the former sixth-rounder and slide in as the complement to Mixon on a potent Bengals’ offense in ’23.
The Fantasy Life crew participated in a rookie Superflex draft on Monday morning. On Tuesday, we reviewed picks 1-6, and today we dive into picks 7-12.
* Law and Order music*
These are their stories...
1.07: Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings
The No. 7 pick might be the worst spot in rookie drafts. You’re not going to get a shot at the top three quarterbacks, and there’s a clear drop-off from Robinson, Gibbs, and JSN to the rest of the skill players. I don’t consider myself a prospect expert, but Addison feels like the most likely Year 1 contributor among the remaining options. He should step into the WR2 role opposite Justin Jefferson, giving him plenty of opportunities for a Vikings’ offense that ranked sixth in pass rate over expectation last year.
1.08: Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
I want to apologize to Geoff and Jonathan for picking after me because there is a big cliff after Johnston comes off the board. While there are some red flags on the big-bodied TCU WR's profile, he got an amazing landing spot in Los Angeles where he should be able to thrive after the catch in an offense that desperately needed additional weapons on offense. The nice thing about this selection is not only do you get long-term upside tethered to Justin Herbert, but you also should get immediate Year 1 production with Johnston operating as the L.A. version of Brandon Aiyuk.
1.09: Will Levis, QB, Tennessee Titans
For fantasy, Levis falling to Tennessee is a positive. Ryan Tannehill is 34, missed five games last season, and has one year left on his contract. Levis improved in Y/A and AY/A in 2022 despite being on a weaker team and has underrated athleticism that may lead to more rushing yards in the pros – especially on Tennessee, who was sixth in rush attempts off RPOs in 2022. Pete stole the best WR on the board (and maybe the draft) in Quentin Johnston, and with only timeshare RBs left, getting superflex-y with Levis in this position is more than warranted.
1.10: Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks
It isn’t an ideal landing spot to end up sharing a backfield with Kenneth Walker III, but second-round draft capital gives Charbonnet a nice floor for dynasty purposes. I’m a big believer in Charbonnet’s talent, and he profiles as a much better pass catcher than Walker, which should help him earn most of the high-value touches for one the most talented offenses in the NFC. After the draft, Pete Carroll openly discussed the versatility that Charbonnet brings to the offense. It seems pretty clear to me he is a big part of their plans for both the short and long term.
1.11: Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens
What we are not going to do at the end of the first round is panic and look back at all the rookies we missed out on. Nope. We’re looking ahead toward Baltimore. With Lamar Jackson’s extension and a new, proven OC in town, the Ravens’ offense aims to be “explosive” in 2023. Some people might cry, “Too many mouths to feed.” To them, I say: Stop being a party pooper. I believe Jackson’s ceiling is much higher than his 2022 production. Zay, come home to momma.
1.12: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills
Rookie drafts get wonky after the first nine picks. The consensus top-three QBs, top-two RBs and top-four WRs are all usually off the board, leaving the top choices as Day 2 RBs and WRs … or the only first-round TE selected last Thursday.
Ultimately, it came down to Kincaid or Dolphins RB Devon Achane. I gave Kincaid the nod for three key reasons:
Anyone who has played fantasy football knows how much of a pain in the ass finding an upside TE1 can be.
Kincaid is at the top of Dwain McFarland’s rookie TE Super Model.
The Bills have a guy named Josh Allen at QB.
I don’t expect Kincaid to ball the hell out in 2023 because rookie TEs basically never do, but there is some level of spike week potential should he essentially just work as the offense’s big slot WR in Year 1. Throw in the possibility that the Bills get out of Dawson Knox’s contract as early as 2024, and Kincaid might just be a year away from knocking on the door of the position’s top-six options.
