I hope Donna Kelce had a great Mother's Day...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter:
- Good news about Javonte Williams
- OverReaction Monday: Does the NFL hate the Giants?
- The player who dominated at Lions camp
- Awards Bets: MVP Futures Odds...
- It's 5/15. Take it away, Peter Overzet...
What if I told you that one of the most talented RBs in the league is regularly available in the 7th and 8th round of drafts? Would that be something you'd be interested in??
Because that's exactly what is going on with Broncos RB Javonte Williams right now.
And yes, I can already hear you screaming at me:
"PETE, DON'T YOU KNOW THAT WILLIAMS NOT ONLY TORE HIS ACL BUT ALSO THE LCL IN HIS RIGHT KNEE AND ALSO DAMAGED THE POSTEROLATERAL CORNER OF HIS KNEE AS WELL, WHICH IMPACTS THE STABILITY OF THE JOINT"
First, please stop yelling. Second, I'm aware. But over the weekend we received some very bullish news about Williams' recovery timeline:
"Our current starter is doing extremely well. I would tell you we expect him to be ready for the start of training camp and that's good news -- [that's] Javonte."
Broncos coach Sean Payton
A big reason why Javonte's ADP has remained in the 70-80 range is because many suspected he might start the season on the PUP list and miss a chunk of the season.
But this report suggests that might not be the case.
If his current ADP is baking in that risk, then we can essentially freeroll him being ready for the start of the season. Williams was a round 2-3 turn pick heading into the 2022 season and would be an absolute steal if does fully recover.
I certainly understand apprehension with drafting guys coming off these kind of injuries. It took J.K. Dobbins almost the entire season to get caught up to speed last year, but I want to be making selections in fantasy drafts who can massively outperform their ADP.
Samaje Perine remains a very strong selection in his own right, but I want to make sure I'm getting cheap shares of Williams before he inevitably rises.
Enjoy the discount while it lasts...
We're humans who play fantasy football, which means we are prone to overreact. Today, Kendall explains why the league might have it out for the G-Men...
😠 The NFL might hate the New York Giants
The 2023 NFL schedules were released on Thursday evening and we finally got a glimpse into what this season has in store. Besides being able to know which NFL teams we are going to be spending our major holidays with, we also got a peek into the toughest and easiest schedules and how that could impact our fantasy teams.
Let’s start with the bad news: The NFL absolutely hates the New York Giants.
I don’t make the rules, just look at what they have cooked up in 2023. Starting in Week 2, the Giants play seven of nine games on the road. According to Warren Sharp, they are the first team forced to play on the road seven times in the first 10 weeks of the season since the NFL reinstated bye weeks in 1990.
And to top it all off? The Giants will face five playoff teams from last season during the 10-game stretch.
It’s pretty obvious to say that this Giants team needs to get off to a hot start. Their four-year, $160 million dollar man in Daniel Jones needs to prove he was worth the pay day and we can only cross our fingers and believe that running back Saquon Barkley and new tight end Darren Waller can be the keys to a great fantasy offense.
I am circling one “revenge game” from the Giants on my calendar and that’s when Waller will face off against his former Las Vegas Raiders team in Week 9. I love a good storyline and something tells me the tight end will be ready to put on a show against Josh McDaniels.
❤️ It is time, Jordan Love
The Jordan Love era is here whether the Packers are ready or not and the NFL is fully embracing the opportunity. Oh you thought losing QB Aaron Rodgers would push the team out of the spotlight? Not so fast. The Packers have five prime-time games in 2023, which is tied for the fifth most in the NFL — giving Love an opportunity to win over the league.
What makes this even better for us? According to ESPN, the Packers also have one of the easiest fantasy schedules. They will play six games against NFC North opponents (the Vikings, Bears and Lions aren’t projected to have top-20 defenses) and also four games against the NFC South (sorry, this needs no explanation).
What a time to usher in a new QB.
🚀 The best player on the field at Lions rookie minicamp. By a wide margin, even.
🤔 Will Dalvin Cook remain a Viking? Jeremy Fowler explains.
🚢 Oh, Marlon Humphrey. Probably shouldn't have tweeted this.
💌 Hope you had a great Mother's Day. Never forget when this mom met Chris Pratt.
🤯 Let the Bijan Robinson buzz commence. Here we go...
🎒 Poor Bryce Young. He really does look like a middle schooler out there.
The early odds are already available for the 2023 season, so it's time to check out the futures markets for the MVP race. Take it away, Geoff...
Last season, Patrick Mahomes won his second MVP and there is a massive likelihood that a QBs wins this award again in 2023-24. As of now, the betting market doesn’t have a single player who is not a QB with odds smaller than +10000.
QBs have won this award 11 years running and are a massive favorite from a positional standpoint to take home the award again.
Betting Trend – look for positive regression targets in team wins
Like most people, MVP award voters like a good comeback story. We have had several instances of MVP winners over the last 10 seasons who led their team back to elite status, after enduring poor or average seasons the year prior.
Not shockingly, some of those winners were also some of the biggest longshots ever to win the award as well.
2023 NFL MVP Best Bets
🔮 Lamar Jackson (+1600)
Jackson had career lows in yards per attempt last year but has a revamped WR crew to work with that now includes three first-round WRs in Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and Odell Beckham.
Also gone is OC Greg Roman. Under Roman, the Ravens ranked bottom 10 in the league in terms of passing yards per game and explosive passing plays in three of the past four seasons.
Taking Roman's place is Todd Monken, who is fresh off of leading Georgia to be the top-rated offense in terms of yards per game in 2022.
The 2019 winner of this award, Jackson looks undervalued, given the other names he’s grouped with at +1600.
From a sentiment perspective, a return to the playoffs for the Ravens would also get Jackson tons of attention and make him an easier pivot if some of the top names falter down the stretch.
🔮 Daniel Jones (+5000)
Despite setting career highs in 2022-23 in INT rate, completion percentage, and rushing yards (708) and rushing TDs (7), Jones remains well outside the top 10 names for this award at the moment.
The Giants upgraded their receiving core significantly by adding an elite pass catching TE in Darren Waller, along with more explosiveness at WR. Given the moves it’s likely Jones’ passing volume takes a big tick up in 2023 and, if his efficiency stays the same, the results could be pretty spectacular.
The Giants sit as third favorites in the division, but considering they have two of the NFC favorites ahead of them in Dallas and Philadelphia any move up in the standings after last year’s surprise 9-7-1 finish would also provide a huge sentiment boost.
You can tail these MVP futures on BetMGM and get up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win! Sign up and start betting today!
