🚫 The Star RB Who HATES "Zero RB"

Don't forward this email to Derrick Henry...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by RosterWatch:

• Derrick Henry is not a fan of Zero RB
• The ascending QB you shouldn't bet against
• Kendall's player to avoid
• Ramos' 2 favorite bets
• Matthew Berry's Preseason Love/Hate
• Who will be the #1 WR?
• How to draft from the #4 slot
• It's 8/26. Take it away, Peter Overzet...

Oh no, someone told Derrick Henry about the Zero RB draft strategy and now I'm scared for my life:

Thinking about using a zero-RB strategy?

@KingHenry_2 has something to say about that 😤

— Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy)
Aug 25, 2022

Not only have I drafted countless Zero RB teams this summer, I'm also terrifyingly light on my Henry exposure. Let's just hope the day never comes where I have to admit to the King that I've only drafted him in 5 of my 123 Best Ball Mania III drafts:

Jokes aside, it's honestly incredible that this contrarian draft strategy originated by Rotoviz's Shawn Siegele in 2013 has reached this level of mainstream notoriety. 

Despite still being one of the most underutilized (and most misunderstood) strategies, it is constantly talked about within the fantasy sphere.

One of these days, we'll stop arguing about it, but until then, here are three resources to help you properly execute it in drafts:

• What is Zero RB? A comprehensive guide to utilizing Zero RB in 2022 drafts from myself and Geoff Ulrich.
• Zero RB & the secrets to best ball. A video I made outlining why Zero RB is so powerful in large field best ball tournaments, like Underdog's Best Ball Mania III with $2,000,000 to first place.
• 2022 Zero RB Candidates. The godfather of Zero RB, Shawn Siegele, has released the first 5 sleeper RB targets on his hotly anticipated annual Top 15 list.

Just promise me you won't show this to Derrick Henry, alright? I have a family.

Some of y’all drafted Zero RB you just don’t know it yet

— cooterdoodle (@cooterdoodle)
Aug 25, 2022

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🚑 The Cowboys suffer a big loss. Will Dak have enough time to throw?

🚀 The ascending QB you shouldn't bet against. The stars are aligning for a big year.

🐎 The Bengals offense is going to be so damn fun. What a quote from Joe Burrow.

🛹 A crazy ADP flippening. Should the rookie be going ahead of his teammate?

🥊 FIGHT! The Bengals and Rams got after it.

📼 AJ Brown says release the tapes! Can't be showing just one side.

😥 Poor Antonio Gibson. It gets worse every day.

We talk a lot about the players to target around here, but avoiding the landmine players is just as important. Avoiding players is rarely about the player themselves, it's all about the cost. Today, Kendall shares one RB  she's avoiding in drafts right now...

❌ David Montgomery (Redraft ADP - RB22)

I know this isn’t groundbreaking information, but you shouldn’t be drafting David Montgomery.

I have been a believer in the Chicago Bears’ running back for a long time, but I finally had to reevaluate my decisions. Montgomery’s volume over the last few seasons is one of the only explanations for his current ADP. Since 2019 he has averaged 278 touches per season and has always been that early-down running back. 

Montgomery averaged 3.8 yards per rush last season, which is more of a sign of how bad the offensive line was. But this new offensive scheme may fit another running back better for the Bears.

Now enter Khalil Herbert and things begin to change. It has been reported that the backfield could be split 50/50, and chances are Herbert will handle a larger role this season as well. Chicago’s scoring offense ranked 27th last season and the team’s win total sits at 6.5 games on BetMGM, so we can’t expect a ton of explosion from the team this season.

It’s also important to remember that Montgomery is entering the final year of his deal and future plans are very much up in the air. A new coaching staff could come with a different outlook on Montgomery. The depth chart is shallow (to put it nicely) and between Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet and Herbert things may look a little bleak. I am drafting much more Herbert than Montgomery because I think there is more upside there.

It’s #LoveHate day! The 2022 pre-season version is now posted. Oh… and it’s FREE.

— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR)
Aug 26, 2022

When we're not drafting best ball teams, we do a little sports betting. Today Ramos shares two of his favorite NFL bets on the board right now...

💰 Justin Herbert most regular season passing yards (+700)

It may sometimes be boring taking the favorite for a futures bet but I am all in on Herbert and the Chargers for this season. Not only was he 2nd in the league last year in total passing yards just behind the ageless Tom Brady, but the Bolts are poised to have a massive breakout season this year. He still has his pass catching RB behind him in Austin Ekeler as well as his pro-bowl WR in Keenan Allen. However, Herbert’s favorite weapon may actually be Mike Williams which, all put together, allows the Chargers to hit opponents from many different angles. 

Diving deeper into last season’s numbers, Herbert came up just 300 yards shy of Brady but ended with 47 fewer pass attempts throughout the year. When you combine that with the fact that Herbert averages over 39 pass attempts per game, another 5,000 yard season is definitely attainable. He may be the favorite to lead the league but when looking through the depth chart of this team, +700 is great value to invest early in this third-year future star.

💰 Brandon Staley coach of the year (+1400)

Did I mention that I am high on the Chargers this year? This offense is going to be electric (no bolt pun intended) and I can’t wait to watch them regularly putting up 40-point games. While they may be competing in arguably the hardest division in football with the Chiefs, Broncos, and Raiders, there are still plenty of reasons for the fans out West to be optimistic for the upcoming season. 

Although the offense last year may have been stellar, there were still some glaring weaknesses in the team; all of which were addressed this offseason. They struggled to get necessary pressure on opposing team’s QBs; insert Khalil Mack acquired via trade. They definitely needed to improve at locking down opposing star wide receivers. Free agent corner, J.C. Jackson, should solve that. Lastly, they need to ensure that Herbert stays upright throughout the year and they solved this by drafting guard Zion Johnson 17th overall. According to may sources, including this CBS Sports report, the Chargers offseason was one of the best in the league. 

Not to mention the fact that four of the Chargers losses last year were by either three points or in overtime. If they flip even three of those, we are looking towards a big year for the Bolts. If they are true contenders with the Chiefs in their division, Staley will be right near the top of Coach of the Year candidates. Get those bets in now.

Season long drafts are just around the corner. In this new series, our contributors will get you prepared from all twelve of the first round draft slots. Today, Kevin shares how to attack a draft from the fourth pick...

Per the Fantasy Life ADP tool, you’re likely getting your pick of one of the elite WR in Cooper Kupp or Ja’Marr Chase. Or maybe you prefer Austin Ekeler? Perhaps, in a dream scenario, Christian McCaffrey gets to your pick? 

*chef’s kiss*

With plenty of RBs on the way back to your next pick like Javonte Williams, Nick Chubb, Alvin Kamara and Aaron Jones typically available, you’re getting a supreme advantage that drafters with a later pick just don’t have. Sure, they can take one or two of these RBs, but the elite RBs dry up quickly once it gets back to their pick in the third round, evaporating their opportunity.

Maybe you’d rather have a WR on the way back after your first pick? You’ll see names like Deebo Samuel, Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, and A.J. Brown that are usually available at the mid-to-late second round.

What if you’d rather pivot to TE? Last season’s TE1 Mark Andrews is usually available here if you so choose in the second. Or you can take a WR/RB and wait for the tantalizing upside of Kyle Pitts in the third round.

Pitts is such a fun pick to make in the third round and that is how I usually attack my drafts from the fourth pick. I’ll see what the first three picks do in front of me, make a choice between Chase, Kupp, or Ekeler, and then take the best available player in the second round. Pitts will usually be there, but if somebody likes Pitts more than I do at my third-round pick, we have to be flexible in our draft approach. There are so many upside WR plays you can make in the third round like Tee Higgins, AJ Brown, D.J. Moore, or quality RB options like James Conner or Leonard Fournette.

Whether you like to go Zero RB, Anchor RB, or prefer a balanced roster, there’s nothing you can’t do from this 1.04 draft slot. The first five picks in fantasy drafts represent an unmatched edge against the rest of your league with an elite player and then two more picks close together. You’re set up for success right out of the gate from the four spot this season.