I'm starting to think this Zero-RB thing might be onto something...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Reignmakers:
- 2 RBs to stash in case CMC can't go
- Week 4: Rankings & Tiers
- What Zach Wilson's return means for the Jets
- TNF: Fantasy & Betting Picks
- Regression Session: A QB due for a breakout
- It's 9/29. Take it away, Peter Overzet
For the most part, we try not to overreact to practice reports early in the week. Many veterans and stars get rest or have limited participation on Wednesdays, but something unexpected occasionally pops up, forcing us to pay attention.
It's exactly what happened yesterday when we learned Panthers' RB Christian McCaffrey didn't practice with a quad injury.
Coach Matt Rhule is playing things close to the vest, but it sounds like we should have legitimate concerns about his availability for Sunday's game vs. the Cardinals:
It’s my understanding there’s more concern around this quad injury than the previous nicks that landed him on the injury report this month twitter.com/jjones9/status…
— Jonathan Jones (@jjones9)
Sep 28, 2022
It's still too early to completely panic, but we should always be making contingency plans (whether CMC is on our team or not).
Both backup RBs, Chuba Hubbard and D'Onta Foreman, only have four carries on the season, but they are both speculative adds if Carolina elects to rest McCaffrey.
However, my guess is this would be a true split backfield, with Foreman handling short-yardage and goal-line work while Hubbard would take the pass work.
The Panthers are a disaster, but it could be even worse without their star RB.
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It is time to make those tough lineup decisions for Week 4 and Dwain has you covered with in-depth player tiers, rankings, and analysis. Here are a few of his favorites for Week 3:
Quarterback
💥 Tier 2 – Joe Burrow
Burrow is the No. 7 fantasy QB with 20.6 points per game, and he draws a matchup against a Dolphins secondary that has offered up the second-most regulation passing yards (931) over the first three games.
Miami uses man coverage the second-most (41%) in the NFL, but they don’t have Byron Jones (PUP), and Xavien Howard is battling a groin injury. The Bengals have the weapons to challenge this unit with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and offer access to a top 4 implied team total on the slate.
Running Back
💥 Tier 1 – Jonathan Taylor
Taylor has disappointed fantasy managers with his 15.3 points per game early in 2022, but a matchup against the Titans could help him turn the corner. Tennessee has coughed up the fourth-most yards on the ground in regulation play (430) and rank sixth-worst in EPA allowed versus the run, per PFF.
The Colts are 3.5-point favorites at home, providing a close game script that should keep the ground game in play. Even if Indianapolis falls behind, Taylor has taken over the long-down-distance snaps in the passing game, keeping his route participation around 60% each game. His utilization profile is as strong as ever.
Taylor is my RB1 overall in Week 4.
🥇 Tier 2 – Jamaal Williams
Williams is set to take on an every-down role with D’Andre Swift (shoulder) likely to miss the Lions’ Week 4 tilt against the Seahawks. Things really don’t line up better than this, the veteran RB checks every box:
- Utilization: should handle 65%-plus of the workload on the ground and eclipse 60% route participation
- Game script: the Lions are four-point favorites (fourth-best on the slate), keeping the ground game in play
- Scoring environment: Detroit has the third-best implied points on the slate, offering big TD-upside
- Matchup: the Seahawks have allowed the fourth-most regulation rushing attempts (96) and third-highest rushing yardage (472)
This is a rare alignment of events, making the veteran a SMASH play. Williams is a top-eight RB in my ranks – three spots ahead of expert consensus.
😧 Tier 3 – Alvin Kamara
Kamara (ribs) was limited in practice on Wednesday but played through the injury in Week 3.
Despite playing hurt, Kamara reached the utilization levels we have grown accustomed to with 70% of snaps, 65% of rushing attempts, and a 14% target share. He regained the lead role in the two-minute offense (92%), which helped boost his route participation back near elite levels (61%).
The Saints aren’t expected to score many points against the Vikings (20.25 implied), but the matchup is juicy. The Vikings have allowed the ninth-most rushing yards in regulation, plus five TDs.
Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry missed practice on Wednesday, and if one should miss the game, Kamara could see a boost in target share. Andy Dalton could also make an appearance and is more willing to get his backs involved than Jameis Winston.
Kamara will move to SMASH status as a top-10 option if we hear he is healthy. For now, I have him two spots ahead of consensus as my RB12.
Wide Receiver
🥇 Tier 2 – Michael Pittman Jr.
Pittman is the No. 6 receiver in points per game (21.2), and he has the target shares to back it up in his two starts (28% and 26%).
The Colts face off against the Titans in Week 4, who allow the seventh-best EPA on passing plays. Opponents have gouged the Tennessee secondary for a whopping 812 yards and eight TDs in the passing game.
On a fairly tame slate, the Colts offer a top-10 implied point total despite the low game total. This is a funnel passing attack, and the Colts are passing more than they did in 2021 in neutral game scripts, which provides Pittman with a buffer should the game turn into a blowout.
📈 5 rookies on the rise. They can't be stopped.
🎙️ The play-by-call of the year. Spanish radio just hits different.
🎉 How Zach Wilson's return will affect the Jets' offense. Matthew weighs in.
💰 Joe Burrow is too cheap on Draftkings. Find out how to crush TNF showdown with OWS.
🤭 Russell Wilson remains the king of cringe. It's so bad.
🏆 Rushing yardage leaders. One of these names is not like the others.
🤯 The Chiefs RB snap leader through three weeks. This will surprise you.
⬆️ Breakout year incoming for this veteran QB? It's not pretty, but he's tied for 5th in passing TDs. Start him.
🤝 The bellcow RB who could be ceding snaps soon. Sharing is caring.
I have a feeling tonight's game is going to be a fun one.
We have the Bengals (1-2) hosting the Dolphins (3-0) as 4-point home favorites in a game with a respectable 47-point over/under. It's slightly bizarre that the market isn't respecting the red-hot Dolphins a bit more, though it likely has to do with QB Tua Tagovailoa's questionable tag after a week of limited practices.
He should be good to go, though, setting us up for a high-scoring affair between two teams with an above-average PROE (pass rate over expected). It's rare to find a game where we get four legitimate Top 15 WRs on the field at once, so soak it up.
Here's everything we like tonight from a fantasy, DFS, and betting perspective:
Our research for these plays comes from, Run the Sims, Props.cash (Use promo code LIFE to save 20% on your subscription), PFF, OWS, and the Fantasy Life Rankings, Start/Sit tool, and Player Props tool.
Don't forget to track all your bets with Pikkit, which automatically syncs with the places you make bets so you never have to manually input anything:
When it comes to regression, it pays to be ahead of the curve. Each week in Regression Session, Jonathan will give you actionable insights on trends unlikely to continue so you can act before your leaguemates.
📈Positive Regression - Kyler Murray
It’s been a bumpy start to the season for Kyler Murray and the Cardinals' offense.
The good news is the path to turn things around (for fantasy at least) is clearly there. The Cardinals run an up-tempo offense and have the third-highest pass rate in the league. It's why Murray has attempted the second-most passes through Week 3.
But one of the reasons Kyler hasn’t lived up to expectations so far is poor efficiency. He is well below his career-average completion rate and yards per attempt. As a result, he has significantly underperformed relative to expectations. Per PFF, he ranks as the QB4 in expected fantasy points but the QB13 in fantasy points per game.
The other issue is Kyler's rushing has declined. Through three games, he's averaging just 22 rushing yards per game while his career average sits at nearly 38.
The passing efficiency should positively regress back to the mean as players like Rondale Moore and DeAndre Hopkins return to the offense. Combine a natural passing regression with an increase in rushing, and we may see Kyler unlock his elite upside as the season progresses.
📉 Negative Regression - Devin Duvernay
On the surface, it looks like Devin Duvernay has seized the Ravens' #2 WR job. He is currently the WR17 in half-PPR scoring and has made some splash plays. However, the impressive fantasy production is the result of limited volume.
Duvernay has run a route on just 57% of Lamar Jckson’s dropbacks and drawn eight targets, through three games. But, to his credit, he's made the most of his opportunity. He's caught every target while scoring 3 TDs. He even added a kick-return TD for good measure. However, he can't sustain his scoring efficiency for long.
There is a chance Duvernay’s strong play earns him a larger role in the offense. But I believe the more likely outcome is he continues to have a part-time role behind Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman, leading to unreliable production.
There are better options on the waiver wire in most leagues.
