Can I get a RT, Melvin Gordon?...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Discount Electronics:
- It's time to believe in Josh Jacobs
- Week 7: Rankings & Tiers
- Is Bill Belichick actually scared of the Bears?
- TNF: Fantasy & Betting Picks
- Bets from the group chat: Alvin Kamara
- It's 10/20. Take it away, Peter Overzet
I'll be honest, I didn't believe in Josh Jacobs this year.
The new coaching staff and the Zamir White draft pick spooked me.
The bizarre preseason usage during the Hall of Fame game spooked me.
Brandon Bolden and Ameer Abdullah stealing pass work spooked me.
But I was completely wrong. Jacobs is crushing. Take a look at these marks:
- He's third in rushing yards (490)
- He's one of six RBs with 100% of their team's carries inside the 5-yard line
- He's top 2 in scrimmage yards per game
- He's top 7 in avoided tackle rate
If we want to dig deeper into what's happening, look no further than the bump after Week 2 in his targets and targets per route run numbers compliments of Dwain's Utilization Report. That's bellcow-level receiving game usage:
And now he gets a Texans defense in Week 7 that has been pitiful against the run. Matthew explains:
.@MatthewBerryTMR likes the matchup and potential for a big game from Josh Jacobs. #RaiderNation
— NBC Sports EDGE Football (@NBCSEdgeFB)
Oct 19, 2022
We like to victory lap our Ws, but sometimes you got to hold up the Ls, too.
Tip of the cap, Mr. Jacobs.
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It is time to make those tough lineup decisions for Week 7, and Dwain has you covered with in-depth player tiers, rankings, and analysis. Here are a few of his favorites for Week 7:
Quarterback
🥈 Tier 2 – Dak Prescott
Prescott will return to action against a Lions' defense with the second-worst PFF coverage grade in the NFL (44.5). Opposing QBs are averaging 271 yards and 1.6 passing TDs per game in non-overtime play against the Lions.
The Cowboys leaned into the run without Prescott – they run the eighth-most in neutral game scripts (44%). However, Detroit could push Dallas to score – they convert the third-most drives into TDs in the NFL (31%).
The matchup offers the second-highest implied point total on the slate, with Dallas favored by seven points. Despite running the ball slightly above expectation, the Cowboys still average 10.7 seconds remaining on the play clock in neutral situations (eighth). The Lions rank second in plays per minute.
This game has an opportunity to provide a ton of offense with Michael Gallup healthy for Dallas and Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift looking healthy for the Lions.
Prescott is a mid-range QB1 this weekend, and this game provides a lot of stack options for DFS contests.
4⃣ Tier 4 – Jimmy Garoppolo
Garoppolo and the 49ers will need to score points in a home game against the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes this weekend. The 49ers could be without several key defensive starters – which led to a trailing game script last weekend against Atlanta.
Jimmy G has the weapons to put up fantasy points, and the Chiefs allow the second-most non-overtime passing points per game (23.8).
Garoppolo is a low-end QB1.
Wide Receiver
💥 Tier 1 – Tyreek Hill
Hill has brought in 12 or more targets in four of six games and is on pace for 184 – a pace that has him set to smash his career-high of 155.
He is the only WR in the NFL with a minimum of 100 routes run with a plus-3.00 YPRR against man and zone looks (4.37 and 3.71). It doesn’t matter what type of defensive looks opponents try or who is throwing him the ball, the 28-year-old is unstoppable in an offense designed to create yards after the catch opportunities.
He is averaging 22.3 fantasy points per game and draws a matchup against the Steelers, who are allowing the sixth-most in regulation play (60.3). The Dolphins carry the sixth-highest implied point total on the slate.
Say hello to the WR1 overall in the Week 7 rankings.
💥 Tier 1 – Deebo Samuel
The 49ers are dealing with multiple injuries on defense and draw a tough matchup against the Chiefs that should push them out of their run-centric game plan.
In Week 6, that resulted in a season-high 10 targets for Samuel. His 27% target share ranks 14th in the NFL and is above WR1 thresholds. The stud WR just needs more competitive game scripts to force Kyle Shanahan to open up the throttle on the passing attack.
The Chiefs allow 71 points per game to opposing pass catchers in non-overtime play. That is the most in the NFL, averaging 336 yards and three TDs per game.
Of course, Samuel should also be good for two to three rushing attempts, providing the potential for a 12- to 15-touch game for one of the NFL’s superstars.
Samuel is a top-five option this weekend and is a SMASH play.
Running Back
🥈 Tier 2 – Derrick Henry
Henry has eclipsed 24 fantasy points in his last three games. The Titans are finding ways to keep him at or above the 25-touch total mark by getting him more involved in the passing attack. The Big Dog has 12 targets for 10 receptions and 121 yards over a three-game stretch.
The Titans are 2.5-point favorites at home against a Colts team that allows 34.6 attempts per game to opponents in non-overtime play. Opposing RBs are averaging 18.1 fantasy points per game in rushing alone (eighth-most).
Look for Henry to keep his mojo going in a friendly game environment and matchup situation. He is a top-10 option with the No. 1 overall upside this weekend.
🥉 Tier 3 – Eno Benjamin
Benjamin was removed from the injury report on Wednesday after a full practice. He should start on Thursday night. James Conner is technically a game-time decision, but he isn’t likely to play after failing to practice all week.
He didn’t come through in Week 6, but the utilization was there with an 87% snap share, 58% rush share and 83% route participation.
Benjamin is a mid-range RB2 if Conner is out.
Check out all of the Fantasy Life Rankings!
😎 Bill Belichick gassing up bad opponents. A tale as old as time, lol.
🔎 Why did the Chiefs restructure Travis Kelce's contract? A move seems imminent.
⚔️ Come strong if you're gonna chirp at DK Metcalf for a down game. He ain't having it.
😵 It's time to bench this RB. It's sad, and it doesn't make sense, but here we are.
🥇 This QB has #1 overall upside. Find out why as Dwain takes you into the Utilization Report Bunker.
📢 Crazy audio of Tom Brady yelling at his teammates. It all makes sense now.
🦷 Who lost to the floss in Week 6? Cooterdoodle checks in.
🍎 The Colts are getting healthy. Sorry, Deon Jackson.
Nothing says Thursday Night Football quite like the sliding Cardinals hosting the banged-up Saints as 1.5 point home favorites on a short week.
The over/under (44.5) could be worse considering the Saints are once again expected to start Andy Dalton over Jameis Winston. Dalton is fighting through a back injury himself, and the team will also be without LG Andrus Peat (chest), WR Michael Thomas (foot), or WR Jarvis Landry (ankle). The one silver lining here is that rookie WR Chris Olave will return after a one-game absence.
The Cardinals have a ton of moving pieces as well. The team won't have Marquise Brown (foot), but they get WR DeAndre Hopkins returning from his six game suspension and will also integrate new acquisition Robbie Anderson into the rotation. In the running game, Eno Benjamin will likely lead the backfield once again, with James Conner (ribs) on the wrong side of questionable and Darrel Williams (knee) already ruled out.
Here's everything we like tonight from a fantasy, DFS, and betting perspective:
Our research for these plays comes from, Run the Sims, Props.cash (Use promo code LIFE to save 20% on your subscription), PFF, OWS, and the Fantasy Life Rankings, Start/Sit tool, and Player Props tool.
Our resident betting sharps at Fantasy Life have a group chat. Lucky for you, they are leaking the alpha. Here's what our CCO Jordan came up with for this week...All odds via BetMGM
🔥 Alvin Kamara over 4.5 Receptions +120
Tonight, we hopefully break the 2-week streak of unwatchable Thursday night football as the new-look Cardinals take on the Saints in a relatively competitive and, dare I say, exciting matchup.
As of writing, the Saints haven’t announced who will get the starting nod at QB, but all signs are pointing towards Andy Dalton being at the helm this evening. This is great news for Alvin Kamara, and we’re going to take advantage of it.
In the past two weeks, we’ve seen a healthy Kamara return to his usage of old, notching a 25% target share with a 33% target per route run rate in Week 5. Things got even better in Week 6 with a 32% target share and a 38% target per route run rate. Even with Kamara’s role in the offense changing, he’s currently the #4 ranked RB in TPPR on the season.
These are elite numbers for an RB. For perspective, Austin Ekeler is currently 2nd this season with a 29% TPRR, and Javonte Williams was #1 prior to his season-ending injury.
These rates also illustrate the current situation on the Saints’ roster. Compared to Jameis Winston, Dalton doesn’t like to throw the ball downfield. His aDOT on the season is 9.4 yards, while Winston clocks in at 12. And on top of that, the offense is dealing with injuries to their other main offensive weapons, Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry.
We’re currently seeing vintage Alvin Kamara, and it’s time to adjust our priors on his betting lines.
The Fantasy Life Prop Tool has Kamara projected for 4.6 receptions, but with plus money odds at BetMGM (+120) this line is a no-brainer for me.
Don't forget to track all your bets with Pikkit, which automatically syncs with the places you make bets so you never have to manually input anything:
🚨 Announcement 🚨
Matthew Berry’s Fantasy Life is coming to @onamp with four new shows!
It kicks off this week on Thursday at 4pm ET with @MatthewBerryTMR and @cooterdoodle 🔥
Click here to download:
— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife)
Oct 19, 2022
