Love your WRs...I'm a little worried about your RBs, though...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Bright Cellars:
- Are we wrong about the Broncos TEs and 49ers RBs?
- A sneaky offensive rookie of the year bet
- Geoff vs. Kendall: Target or fade Jerry Jeudy?
- Fantasy Points: TE Best Ball Tiers
- Team preview: Baltimore Ravens
- It’s 7/20. Take it away, Peter Overzet…
If you've been drafting throughout all of Hot Best Ball Summer with us at Fantasy Life, then you've likely already made a lot of bets on players and situations.
As we head into training camp, we are about to get loads of information that will either confirm our priors (yay, I was right!) or threaten to reveal the flaws in our logic (oops, I'm an idiot).
The toughest thing is sifting through the signal and noise with these reports. Sometimes it's just a beat reporter firing from their hip, but other times there is actionable advice that can inform our future drafting.
Two interesting pieces of recent news that have me rethinking some of my drafting tendencies surround the Broncos TEs and the Niners backfield.
- Broncos reporter Mike Kils believes that Greg Dulcich will ultimately take over as the No. 1 TE in the offense by the end of the season and called him the more "natural receiver" of the Broncos TEs
- The Athletic's Matt Barrows reported that "if the season begun today" Jeff Wilson Jr. would be Eli Mitchell's backup
These reports are particularly interesting because I've been drafting a decent amount of Albert Okwuegbunam and Tyrion-Davis Price.
The way I process reports like this is to think of them as little flashing yellow lights the next time I go to draft Okwuegbunam or TDP. Those are guys I was perhaps too confident on that I now want to be more cautious with.
Even though it doesn't mean they still can't succeed, it's a good reminder that I should be more price sensitive when selecting them going forward now that I know there might be more uncertainty at play than I initially assumed.
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💪 The RB ready to put your fantasy team on his back. He's putting in the work.
🤫 A sneaky offensive rookie of the year bet. Nice price at +1000.
🔍 Twitter evaluating a Robust RB team. I love the RBs...
📅 An updated suspension window for Deshaun. When will this end?
🏈 The best WRs against man & zone coverage. We see you Tee Higgins.
👕 Best new uniforms in the league? The Panthers say hold my beer, Bengals.
Jerry Jeudy is a controversial pick in fantasy drafts right now. We asked Kendall & Geoff to debate the pros & cons of drafting Jeudy at his current price tag...
Geoff's Opening Statement:
Situation. Russell Wilson is certainly going to bring some swagger back to the Broncos offense in 2022, which featured just a 48.3% completion rate to its wide receivers in 2021.
Wilson loved working the slot with Doug Baldwin in Seattle, a WR who averaged 8 TDs and over 1,000 yards in the four seasons he played 15 games or more with Wilson. Jeudy lined up in the slot on over 80% of his snaps in 2021, and given the makeup of their receiving corps, we should expect similar usage from him in 2022. Expecting Jeudy to develop as an instant favorite for Wilson isn’t hard to imagine and should have us very bullish on his upside for 2022.
ADP. Even with Wilson at QB and a new offensive-minded head coach, there’s still serious skepticism on Jeudy, who is currently sitting with an ADP around 47.2 (Underdog WR22), about 10 spots lower than teammate Courtland Sutton. Sutton certainly has the potential to develop into an Alpha WR1, but let’s not forget Wilson supported two WR1’s in Seattle and that Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf finished within 7.0 fantasy points of each other in 2020 and 2021 (in full PPR scoring). It’s clear Jeudy’s 2021 production (or lack thereof) has created a discount on him, and it’s something we should be excited about taking advantage of.
Talent. Despite the lack of early career production, Jeudy has a complicated story. Poor QB play, being a part of a low-volume passing offense, and a high ankle injury suffered in Week 1 last year are all serious hindrances that have stopped a true breakout. Ultimately, Wilson’s history of feeding the slot and Jeudy’s current ADP discount make this a very appealing situation for me and one we should be taking advantage of right now in redraft and best ball leagues this summer.
Kendall's Rebuttal:
Situation. Everyone can agree Jeudy has not had the best quarterbacks around him to help elevate his natural talent and abilities. Wilson is a huge step up for the third-year wideout. But can he capitalize? The Broncos gave second contracts to Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick, and K.J. Hamler could see a bigger role during the 2022 season. According to Reception Perception, Jeudy has struggled both in contested situations (50% catch rate) and with drops (9.8% drop rate). Through two seasons with the Broncos, Jeudy has totaled 90 receptions for 1,323 yards and 3 touchdowns. There are obvious reasons why Jeudy didn’t produce under Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater, but there should be no excuse with Russell Wilson. However, a gamble on a “breakout” year over other proven WRs could come back to haunt us.
ADP. Jerry Jeudy sitting with an ADP around 47.2 (Underdog WR22) should make anyone nervous. He could easily become the No. 3 wide receiver in a crowded room. His route-running ability is excellent, and he can be a potential matchup nightmare. However, new Broncos head coach Nathaniel Hackett isn’t too keen on those three-WR sets. According to Pro Football Focus, Green Bay ranked 21st (70%) in dropbacks featuring at least three wide receivers from 2019 to 2021. I know it’s a different quarterback and team now, but still, something to consider. It’s a new offense, and there’s still a lot we won’t know until Training Camp starts.
Talent. There’s no question that Jerry Jeudy has tons of talent. After covering the Denver Broncos for three years, I have been waiting (and hoping) to see him break out.
With the new facelift in Denver, lots of players will be benefiting; I just don’t think it will be as much for Jeudy. Courtland Sutton could be the new DK Metcalf to Wilson. Tim Patrick has been a rock in Denver. He’s had as many receiving TDs(11) over the past two seasons as every other Broncos WR combined. I like the upside of Patrick (Underdog WR53) and K.J. Hamler (Underdog WR78) more than Jeudy at his current spot.
Our friends over at Fantasy Points have put together full positional tiers to help you in your best ball drafts. Today, Graham Barfield highlight a few targets and fades from his Tier 4, 5, and 6. Take it away, Graham...
💥 Dalton Schultz
Schultz broke out for 78/808/8 last year and will be relied upon even more heavily now. Schultz was remarkably consistent last season, as he finished as the TE12 or better in 11-of-17 games last year. For reference, Travis Kelce was TE12 or better in 12-of-16 games. And he only got better as the year went on. Over the final eight games of 2021, Schultz was TE5 in FPG (13.6). CeeDee Lamb is going to have to step up, but Schultz is the easy favorite to be #2 on the Cowboys in targets with Michael Gallup (knee) unlikely to return until November.
💥 Pat Freiermuth
Freiermuth (TE11; 124 overall ADP) fits my process for late-round tight ends. I’m chasing TDs and/or young ascending players that the public is too low on. Even with the ghost of Ben Roethlisberger throwing the ball to him, Freiermuth had a fantastic rookie season from a historical perspective – his 9.5 FPG ranks seventh-most among rookie tight ends since 2000. Freiermuth has plenty of touchdown equity, too. His 21.5% target share inside of the 10-yard line ranked fifth-highest among tight ends last year, just ahead of Dawson Knox, Schultz, and Kyle Pitts (20%).
💥 Irv Smith
The Vikings sure do need him. They have no depth behind Smith – Tyler Conklin got 87 targets in Smith’s absence and he is now a Jet. Those 87 targets ranked 12th-most among tight ends. The pathway for a full-time role is wide open coming off knee surgery.
❄️ Mike Gesicki
Gesicki’s usage has been notoriously streaky and I’m not sure how that changes with Tyreek Hill in Miami and Jaylen Waddle ascending. Gesicki is averaging 4.3 receptions and 46.6 yards per game in 19 starts with Tua, which is solid, but it’s hard to project him for much more work.
Click here to see Graham's full set of TE tiers. Fantasy Life readers get 10% off a Fantasy Points subscription with promo code LIFE.
The season is fast approaching, which means it is time for us to get to know all of these NFL teams and who we should be drafting and fading after a busy offseason. In today's team preview, Kevin Tompkins previews the Baltimore Ravens...
Despite losing their top two RBs before the season even started, the 2021 Ravens jumped out to an 8-3 start. The team looked to cruise through their campaign with a patchwork backfield of oldies that included Devonta Freeman, Latavius Murray, and current boxer Le’Veon Bell. After that hot start to the season, the Ravens ended last season on a six-game skid.
Looking to 2022, there’s one major offensive personnel change from last season— the trade of Marquise Brown to the Cardinals. Will that bring the Ravens back to their #EstablishTheRun ways of 2020? BetMGM has the Ravens at an over/under of 9.5 wins, which is right in line with the Bengals in the AFC North for the highest over/under win total.
⚙️ Offseason changes
- Signed RB Mike Davis in free agency.
- Selected RB Tyler Badie and TEs Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar in the 2022 NFL Draft.
- Traded WR Marquise Brown to the Cardinals with a third-round draft pick for a 2022 first-round draft pick (23rd overall).
- Lost RBs Ty’Son Williams, Devonta Freeman, and Latavius Murray plus WRs Sammy Watkins and Miles Boykin in free agency.
✨ Team vibes
The Ravens look solid enough on paper for 2022, and they’ll get J.K. Dobbins back in Week 1. Of course, that’s if you ask him or his good friend, and NOT Ian Rapoport. Some good buzz in training camp heading into the regular season will do wonders for Dobbins in fantasy circles, as he’s a tougher pill to swallow at his RB21 price point.
If Dobbins and/or Gus Edwards, with his inexplicable career 5.2 yards per carry, cannot start the season healthy, we’ll be staring down the barrel of recent signee Mike Davis getting significant touches for a team that’s looking to run the ball more. Yikes.
WR Rashod Bateman had a very uneven start to his Ravens career with a groin strain that led to him missing some early-season games. He bookended middling production with another groin strain in December. With Brown gone, Bateman steps into a huge opportunity in a very consolidated target tree in Baltimore.
When you talk about consolidated targets, you can’t forget to mention Mark Andrews. Last season’s TE1, Andrews led the TE position with a 25% target share and ran routes on 84% of dropbacks. Andrews had his huge spike weeks towards the end of the season with backup QBs Tyler Huntley and Josh Johnson, averaging 30.2 fantasy PPG in Weeks 14-16, but was still fantasy’s TE2 with Lamar Jackson at the helm.
The fly in the ointment is the fact that the Ravens are likely to reduce their pass play percentage from last season’s 56% mark — way up from 2020’s 45%. If 2022’s pass play percentage can meet in the middle of the last two seasons, Andrews and Bateman will be just fine with volume this season.
🎯Draft targets
- Mark Andrews (Underdog ADP 20.4, TE2)
- Lamar Jackson (Underdog ADP 51.4, QB4)
- Rashod Bateman (Underdog ADP 54.2, WR26)
- Devin Duvernay (Underdog ADP 198.2, WR85)
👋Draft fades
- J.K. Dobbins (Underdog ADP 58.3, RB21)
- Gus Edwards (Underdog ADP 156.9, RB49)
My friend asked me what it’s like to be in a slow draft so I left them on read.
— cooterdoodle 👺 (@cooterdoodle)
Jul 19, 2022
