How hard would it be to play basketball in glass slippers?
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by BetMGM.
NBA Friday: Target the Wizards as favorites?!?
Sweet 16: Bet on offense in NC State-Marquette.
UFC Fight Night: Erin Blanchfield to wear down Manon Fiorot?
It’s 3/29. Take it away, Matt LaMarca…
After a small two-game slate on Thursday, the NBA is back in full swing on Friday. There are 12 games to choose from, including a few games with huge consequences.
At the top of the Western Conference standings, the Timberwolves will take on the Nuggets in Denver. Minnesota is currently 0.5 games behind the Nuggets for the top spot in the West, so a win would vault them above Denver in the standings. It would also give the Timberwolves the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Moving down to the No. 6 spot, the Mavericks are currently occupying the final guaranteed playoff spot in the West after rattling off five straight wins. They’ll take on the Kings on Friday, who are currently one game back. A win for Sacramento would push them above the Mavs in the standings, thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker.
While those games are great… I’m going to dive into the bottom end of the standings for two of my favorite plays on Friday:
🧙♂️ Washington Wizards (-4.0) vs. Detroit Pistons (-110; Caesars)
Don’t look now, but the Wizards have played some of their best basketball of the season recently. They did suffer an overtime loss to the Nets in their last contest, but they had won their previous three games. The Wizards have just 14 wins on the season, so three wins and an overtime loss in a four-game stretch nearly warrant a parade in Washington.
They’re in a great spot to pick up another win on Friday. The Pistons are dealing with a host of key injuries. They’ve already ruled out six players, while Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey are both considered questionable. If Cunningham and Ivey sit, it would leave the Pistons with a group of players that even hardcore NBA fans would struggle to recognize.
The Wizards have some injury absences of their own, but they still have most of their core intact. Kyle Kuzma, Deni Avdija, and Jordan Poole are all good to go, and Poole has played extremely well since re-entering the starting lineup. He’s started the past seven games for the Wizards and has responded with 21.4 points and 5.9 assists per game.
It’s weird to consider backing the Wizards as favorites, but this banged-up Pistons squad is one of the few spots where it makes sense. If Cunningham and Ivey are out, this number should be even larger.
⬇️ Kris Murray Under 9.5 points (-110; BetMGM)
The Murray under was kind to us on Wednesday, with the rookie finishing with zero points on 0-3 shooting. His scoring prop was set at 10.5 in that contest, and it’s dipped to 9.5 for Friday’s matchup vs. the Heat. Even though this prop is slightly lower, I still think it provides significant value.
For starters, his matchup vs. the Heat is a tough one. Miami has been a top-10 team in terms of defensive efficiency this season, and they’ve played at the second-slowest pace. Add both factors together, and they’ve allowed the fourth-fewest points per game.
Additionally, Murray’s playing time was slashed in their last game. He remained in the starting lineup, but he finished with just 21.6 minutes after averaging 34.9 in his previous four games. Toumani Camara’s absence could push Murray back towards 30 minutes on Friday, but he’ll still face an uphill battle to crack double-figures.
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The NCAA Tournament is back in action with part two of the Sweet 16 on Friday. Kody Malstrom stops by to give us some of his favorite bets…
⬆️ (11) NC State vs. (2) Marquette (Over 150.5) (-115, DraftKings)
North Carolina State has been the picture-perfect definition of what momentum can do for you, carrying their ACC Conference Championship title run into the Sweet 16. It’s not a fluke either as this team has created serious matchup advantages with DJ Burns carrying the offense with his elite blend of low post dominance and facilitation abilities.
Marquette may have the height advantage with Oso Ighodaro standing at 6’11”, but Burns has the mass to move him with ease as he is 40 pounds heavier. This will force Marquette into throwing more doubles to limit the high-quality looks at the rim, creating gaps in their coverage for the Wolfpack to exploit.
That bodes well for an offense whose scoring is heavily reliant on their guard play outside of Burns, bringing in a blend of slashers and spot-up shooters to deal their damage. Especially when Marquette's perimeter defense does not fare much better than their previously mentioned interior defense, allowing opposing offenses to shoot 33.6% from deep.
As for Marquette and their ability to contribute towards the over, they should have no issue with running their screen-heavy assault. With Tyler Kolek back in the fold, Marquette’s offense has been a nightmare to deal with as he and Kam Jones feed off of each other as two elite scorers with one driving and the other playing off the ball.
Expect both units to get their scoring going from the opening tip as each unit has massive advantages over the other. North Carolina State is also worth a look on the live line, especially if they start out cold from deep while generating high-quality looks with Marquette being forced to double Burns.
☠️ There’s only one Bo Jackson. Manny Machado learned that lesson the hard way.
💯 Who’s better than Andy Reid? Big Red peppers the zone on Opening Day.
🐟 Stay healthy one time, Mike Trout. The future Hall of Famer cashed a +1700 ticket with the first homer of Opening Day.
⚾ Who says baseball is boring? An insane strikeout parlay cashes on opening day.
🌊 You’ll get nothing and like it! Nick Pringle had harsh words for Tar Heel bettors after Bama’s upset win.
🪽 “Scheduled Tweet”. The Hawks stunned the Celtics as massive underdogs for the second time in four days.
⛳ The Scheff keeps cooking. Scottie Scheffler broke a PGA record in his first round in Houston.
The UFC takes its show on the road to Atlantic City, New Jersey for this Saturday’s Fight Night. The main event features a high-stakes matchup with title implications between flyweight contenders Erin “Coldblooded” Blanchfield and Manon “The Beast” Fiorot. With 14 total fights on the card, Mark Drumheller leans heavily on the prop market to find the best value in his UFC best bets.
🥶 Parlay: Erin Blanchfield ML + Over 1.5 rounds (-135; DraftKings)
Erin Blanchfield is once again commanding respect at the betting window. Since opening as a -140 favorite, her odds soared as high as -200 before finding resistance. This parlay is a solid way to massage the price back into the range of the opening number.
This bout boils down to Blanchfield’s ability to break Fiorot’s stellar 91% takedown defense. “Coldblooded” is a pressure fighter who uses a jab and high kick to soften up the opposition before forcing the fight into the grappling realm.
The five-round duration of the main event makes Fiorot’s task of keeping the fight standing an exhausting chore. Fiorot faded hard in the third round against Rose Namajunas. I will heed the signal that her cardio might not hold up after being taxed by a barrage of takedown attempts.
Playing Blanchfield and the over 1.5 rounds correlates to her most probable path to victory without risking whether or not she ultimately gets the finish.
