🦄 The TE About To Go Nuclear

Please don't drink a beer out of a hotdog straw...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter:

• The TE you need to draft
• Best ball to redraft tips: study platform ADP
• This year's Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp?
• Geoff's auction strategy tips
• How to draft from the 12 slot
• Cooterdoodle favorite last round pick
• It’s 8/24. Take it away, Peter Overzet…

We need to have the Kyle Pitts conversation.

For much of the offseason, we've collectively come up with excuses for why not to aggressively target the second-year TE...

His QB play will be bad...

The Falcons entire offense will be bad...

He's too expensive and TE is deep...

What if Drake London is the main guy...

And then this happened on Monday night in the Falcons preseason game against the Jets:

Kyle Pitts 😤

— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife)
Aug 23, 2022

It's one of the best possible illustrations of the havoc Pitts is going to wreak on defenses this year.

He's bigger and stronger than the cornerbacks who will try to guard him and he's faster and more agile than the poor, poor linebackers and safeties who will end up scared pedaling:

This man, Kyle Pitts, said he got dudes out there “scared pedaling”!! I’m WEAK!! 💀😂 🤣 #DirtyBirds

— Tank Williams (@TankWilliams13)
Aug 23, 2022

He truly is a unicorn unlike anything we've ever seen before.

He started last year as a 20-year old and finished it as the the first rookie TE to eclipse 1,000 yards in 60 years. In doing so, he posted seven TE1 weeks and had the third-most receiving yards across the position.

The only thing Pitts didn't do in his rookie year was find the endzone (he scored only 1 TD), which is the only reason you can still get him in the third round of drafts.

It's not just that Pitts can perform on the level of an elite WR, it's that he can do that from the TE slot in our fantasy lineups and give us a massive edge on our opponents.

We aren't drafting Pitts because of one sick preseason highlight, for the record. It's just a clear reminder that you should have been drafting him all along.

We’ve been talking about Best Ball all summer long, but as September draws near, we need to get prepped for our season-long drafts. Each day this week, Pete will share some tips and tricks on how to swap out your best ball brain with the season-long mindset.

Every site, whether it’s ESPN, FFPC, Yahoo, NFFC, or CBS, have different default rankings and ADP within their app. Some of them update more dynamically as drafts are completed while others can get stale and not reflect their true current market value. 

The point, though, is that our leaguemates often use the default ADP or ranks within these apps to inform their selections. In psychology, they call this an anchoring bias. 

Casual drafters feel uncomfortable “disagreeing” with the default ADP and don’t want to feel like they are making a mistake.

We can take advantage of this by comparing up-to-date rankings at Fantasy Life with the ADPs within the applet of the site you are drafting on.

Highlight the players who are ranked significantly higher and lower than where they are in the draft room to inform your selections.

We’ve recently highlighted a few examples of players who we are much higher on than the default rankings on ESPN:

• Trey Lance (ESPN: QB13; Fantasy Life Rank: QB8)
• AJ Dillon (ESPN: RB32; Fantasy Life Rank: RB22)
• Rashod Bateman (ESPN ADP: WR38; Fantasy Life Rank: WR24)
• Courtland Sutton (ESPN ADP: WR25; Fantasy Life Rank: WR16)

The goal isn’t to draft these players at our rank, but to get them at a discount. In doing so, you’ll be able to stack value and build a superteam. 

TLDR: I don’t think there’s a more valuable thing you can do before you draft than comparing your ranks and player targets to where they are located on the site you are drafting. In doing so, you can essentially plot out your entire draft, earmarking the mispriced players you want to select in specific rounds.

🥪 This year's Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp? We have ourselves a new lunch narrative.

💪 "He's been dominant on a daily basis." The WR10 should be going higher.

🚑 Who will emerge behind JK Dobbins? The Ravens will start the season without their primary backup.

🛌 A sleeper TE who is going undrafted. This could be big.

🥊 Justin Herbert takes a shot at the Raiders. That's bulletin board material.

📉 It's getting bad for this rookie WR. Vrabel continues to take jabs at their first round pick.

While snake drafts are the most popular drafting format, auction drafts are becoming more and more prevalent. Today, Geoff shares a couple of tips on how to approach this unique format...

As we enter redraft season, it’s time to start considering what your auction draft strategy might look like for 2022. If you’re new to auctions, you’ll want to check out our primer on how auction drafts work, but for now, let’s talk strategy and go over a couple of things you can do to improve your auction results this season.

⚠️ Avoid bidding wars

Auctions involve fast and furious decision-making. For that reason, getting caught up in the moment when you’re chasing a player is easy to do. The best way to avoid bidding wars in auction drafts then is to set limits. Write out a maximum price, research what players are going for (in mock drafts or by using our ADP tool) and then force yourself to stick to it.

Some players will always be more popular targets than others, so being mindful of the sentiment around the top players is something you should always be doing. 

Players sure to draw plenty of interest in 2022 include Jonathan Taylor, Justin Jefferson, Josh Allen, Gabriel Davis, Justin Herbert, George Pickens, Travis Kelce, and Romeo Doubs.

Players with lots of potential, but who will likely draw less heat in auctions include Saquon Barkley, Dalvin Cook, Darnell Mooney, Michael Pittman, Dak Prescott, Treylon Burks, and Darren Waller.

🔎 Look for opportunities to snag value

Auction drafts take longer than snake drafts, but it really does pay to watch every bid. Players will often come up for bid who, for one reason or another, just don’t generate much interest. And that can lead to some great opportunities if you’re ready. 

One thing I discussed in our auctions article on fantasylife.com is taking advantage of position fatigue to create good value scenarios. If a bunch of elite quarterbacks just went off the board, do you really think other managers will be interested in engaging in another bidding war over a less high-profile name like, say, Kirk Cousins or Derek Carr? Nominating a second-tier player like Cousins or Carr, after there’s been a huge run on more elite names, is a good way to potentially get those players for less than the going rate.  

Potential value targets for nomination in 2022: QB: Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, or Derek Carr

RB: Nick Chubb, Ezekiel Elliott - WR: Michael Pittman, Rondale Moore TE: Zach Ertz

For more information on auction drafts, including how they work and the strategy behind executing a successful auction draft, you can go here or visit the website and look under our fantasy section, where auction draft strategy and a bunch of other cool stuff are there for you to dive into! 

Season long drafts are just around the corner. In this series, our contributors will get you prepared from all twelve of the first round draft slots. Today, Kendall shares how to attack a draft from the twelfth pick...

First of all, I am sorry that the Fantasy Gods have put you in this situation. Drafting from the 12 spot is not ideal, but we will get through this together. 

At this point you are likely not getting those “elite”, top tier fantasy players, but if you want to look on the bright side you will be able to see how the board is falling and make an informed decision from there.

If you want to set yourself up for a Zero RB build then snagging one of the best TEs in Travis Kelce could be the way to go. If WR is your jam, then Davante Adams, CeeDee Lamb or even Deebo Samuel are your answers.

I think there are enough talented running backs to ease your worries as the draft goes on, but some RBs you can target outside of that dreaded “dead zone” are AJ Dillon, Tony Pollard and Rhamondre Stevenson. Usually these players should be available heading into those later rounds.

It’s very known that Zero RB is not for everyone, so if you want running back insurance an Anchor RB build is very doable from the 12 spot. According to the Fantasy Life ADP Tool, you’d miss out on the usual Tier 1 running backs, as well as Derrick Henry, Najee Harris and Dalvin Cook. This is a point where you should go with your gut and have the mindset of “getting your guys”. If you’re comfortable with snagging a Joe Mixon, Saquon Barkley or D’Andre Swift then you should go for it.

You can create a league-winning roster from the 12 spot, just be flexible with your picks and be ready to abandon your pre-draft plan when things start going off-script.

Sure, your first round picks are important, but those decisions are generally pretty straight forward. Where we can really crush our opponents is at the end of the draft. In this new series, our contributors will highlight some of their favorite flyers to take with a last round pick. Take it away Cooterdoodle...

Once you enter the murky waters of the last rounds of your draft, you have to aim for guys that can help you stay afloat. Don’t waste your last pick on a player that has a low ceiling just to secure a safe floor. Instead, draft the guy that can be a league winner if the stars align. 

✅ Green flags for last round fliers:

• High scoring offense
• History of production
• One role away from payday

The Rams WR3, Van Jefferson, is covered in green flags. For starters, his team scores… a lot. Los Angeles’ offense catapulted into a new realm once Matthew Stafford came to town last season. Stafford finished 2nd in TDs and 3rd in passing yards amongst all QBs in 2021. The only QB to throw more TDs than Stafford last year was Tom Brady. So don’t sweat it, the Rams offense will continue to flourish in 2022.

In terms of production, Jefferson finished with 802 yards and 6 TDs during his sophomore year last season. Sure, Cooper Kupp is Stafford’s main beneficiary and Allen Robinson is now in town, but Jefferson will have opportunities to capitalize. With a high powered offense, a history of production, and only a label of “WR3” holding him back, Jefferson is an ideal candidate for a last round pick. Jefferson has all the pieces, he just needs the opportunity.