*Your* bracket is busted? Get in line, pal...
In todayās Fantasy Life Newsletter:
- What's going on with the Denver Broncos?
- OverReaction Monday: Zeke and rule proposals.
- The Panthers and Ravens add a WR
- Age Cliffs: Beware of the veterans?
- It's 3/27. Take it away, Peter Overzet...
I'm not sure there is a team having a weirder offseason than the Denver Broncos.
After finishing the 2022 season with a disappointing 5-12 record, the team pushed Nathaniel Hackett out the door for another Aaron Rodgers recruitment mission and then shoved their chips all in on head coach Sean Payton.
Payton cost the Broncos their 2023 first round pick and a 2023 second round pick, which means Denver won't have a selection in this draft until the third round (picks Nos. 67 and 68).
Since making the move, drama has swirled around the franchise.
Matthew outlined a lot of the dysfunction after talking to a few sources at the NFL Combine. Here are your cliffs notes:
- Russell Wilson is on a one-year audition. According to one source: āI don't think [Sean] Payton likes Russ. He's got one year to prove himself or Payton will move on.ā
- The team is secretly worried about Javonte Williams' health, which subsequently led to them signing Samaje Perine in Free Agency as an insurance option.
- And finally, the team has quietly been shopping around their top WRs, Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy.
Russ clearly needs all of the help he can get in the passing game, so it should raise some eyebrows that the team is fielding calls for moves that would deplete his weaponry in 2023:
League sources, including some with teams that have been in contact with the Broncos, have said so far the Broncos have been resolute about getting a first- or second-round pick in any deal that involved Jeudy. The Broncos must decide by May 1 -- two days after the draft concludes -- if they are going to pick up Jeudy's fifth-year option.
Jeff Legwold, ESPN Senior Writer
Elijah Moore went for pennies, Kadarius Toney went for pennies, and Brandin Cooks was basically entirely free.
.... and the Broncos still want a 1st for Jerry Jeudy? Iunno, man.
One thing is very certain if these rumors are directionally accurate:
The Broncos aren't building around Wilson, they are building around Payton.
This isn't the first time Denver has tried to shortcut a rebuilding process, but Peyton Manning isn't walking through that door.
2022 was a disaster year for the team, but it could somehow get worse if they decide one more year is needed to fully reboot the franchise.
The silver lining here is that Jeudy (or Sutton) could potentially get a fantasy upgrade with a change of scenery...
We're humans who play fantasy football, which means we are prone to overreact. Today, Kendall leads us in overreacting to what's going on with Zeke and rule proposals...
āļø I will remember you, will you remember them?
Weāve made it to that time of the year where free agency moves are all but over and now we are directing our attention to the NFL Draft.
BUT NOT SO FAST.
There are still some players we need to keep an eye on, because their landing spots could have a huge effect on the fantasy football landscape. Letās start with an easy one: Ezekiel Elliott.
The Dallas Cowboys announced earlier this month they would be parting ways with their longtime star. This comes after Elliott put up career lows in rush attempts, rush yards and rushing average (so yeah, maybe it was time). I think itās still important to consider whichever team āfeeds Zekeā next could have an impact on the fantasy world.
IT COULD HAPPEN, OKAY!
Adam Schefter reported that Elliott has narrowed down his options to the Eagles, Jets and Bengals, and could make a decision by the end of this week. I get it, heās not a hot and trendy option, but he did still put up 12 rushing touchdowns in 2022 (RB22) and 10 rushing touchdowns in 2021 (RB7). No matter what, itās a post June-1 cut to watch for.
Another player to keep an eye on is RB Derrick Henry. Rumors swirled at the start of free agency saying the Titans were āshoppingā Henry and we essentially got flashbacks of when the team traded superstar wide receiver A.J. Brown during the NFL Draft.
Maybe something happens? Maybe thereās nothing to it at all. I think we shouldnāt be shocked though if Tennessee makes a move to continue their rebuilding stage.
š Rule proposals to be heard at Annual League Meeting
The Annual League Meeting began Sunday and goes through Tuesday, with 17 rule proposals being heard throughout the three days in Arizona. Some of the biggest proposals involve ball placement following touchbacks and fair catches.
One rule change (that the 49ers know all too well) involves an emergency third quarterback. This would allow teams to designate a third quarterback from its inactive list or practice squad to play in a game, only if the two other quarterbacks have been ruled out.
And no, unfortunately (or fortunately?), the tush-push is not on the docket for the March meetings. So we will still get more of this next season!
š The Panthers add another veteran WR. This will give their rookie QB a nice downfield weapon.
š¤· So do the Ravens. This signing is so predictably Baltimore.
š¤ Some things are just meant to be. The Seahawks bring back a familiar face.
š® A clue for who the Panthers will select with the No. 1 pick? Open up your third eye...
š The asking price for Nuk is HIGH. The Cardinals need to chill.
š¤£ A tale of 3 QBs. I see no lies.
š NFL offseason workout program dates. Start days for the entire league.
š¦¶ Kicker trade! The Niners needed a Robbie Gould replacement.
Rookies and second-year breakouts are all of the rage in fantasy (and rightfully so!), but that doesn't mean we can't find value with veteran players. Today Ian outlines how we should be evaluating older players to make sure we don't catch a falling knife in drafts....
Fantasy football goodness is based on a myriad of factors, but the reality is younger players have made up the bulk of the gameās highest-scoring performers regardless of position over the years.
The following table denotes the percentage of top-12 fantasy performers by age over the past decade. Scoring refers to full point-per-reception (PPR) as well as per-game ranks with a minimum of eight games played. Special thanks to Pro Football Reference for the data:
% of top-12 fantasy producers by age over the last 10 years (PPR per game ranks, minimum 8 games)
Similar takeaways can be found when looking at a playerās experience.
In general: younger is typically better, particularly at RB and WR, where Leonardo DiCaprioās ā25 or youngerā policy might actually have some legs.
Of course, survivorship bias does play a role in this: There are more young players than old players in the NFL, so it makes sense that top fantasy performers have usually been in their early- and mid-20s.
Additionally, failure to crack the positionās top-12 scorers doesnāt render a fantasy asset obsolete, but for today weāre just looking at the best of the best.
What follows are three age and experience-related takeaways for the QB position ahead of the 2023 season. (RB, WR, and TE all available here.)
Anyone else ready to run through a brick wall?
Quarterback
šļø Old dudes can still win at QB
Yes, Tom Brady is responsible for six top-12 fantasy seasons after reaching the age of 35. Also yes, the likes of Drew Brees (x6), Aaron Rodgers (x3), Peyton Manning (x2) and Ben Roethlisberger (x2) also proved plenty capable of supplying some fantasy goodness even after already having played 10-plus years in the league.
Itās a lot cooler when QBs are young enough to combine ridiculous arm strength with immense rushing ability.
But realize that savvy veterans have still managed to put up some big-time numbers in recent years ā undoubtedly thanks in large part to the leagueās recent practice of calling roughing the passer for ā¦ pretty much anything?
š2023 notes:
Rodgers (40 in December) wasnāt great in 2022, but he also didnāt resemble 2015 Peyton or 2020 Brees when it comes to their arm turning into a duck.
Itās far from ideal that Matthew Stafford (turned 35 in February) missed the end of last season with a spinal cord contusion, but he insists retirement isnāt an option for 2023.
The Super Bowl champion is just one season removed from throwing for a gaudy 4,886 yards and 41 touchdowns.
Ryan Tannehill (35 in July) struggled to stay healthy in 2022; just realize he did post QB9, QB9, and QB14 finishes on a per-game basis from 2019 to 2021.
Similar to A-aron, Russell Wilson (35 in November) didnāt fall apart in 2022 due to physical limitations. He was actually one of the leagueās more-efficient passers when throwing 20-plus yards downfield.
Kirk Cousins (35 in August) has been a model of consistency in recent years. He's notched seasons of QB15, QB18, QB11, QB12, and most recently QB12 finishes on a per-game basis since joining the Vikings back in 2018.
šāāļø Successful rookie-year signal-callers have almost always carried a solid rushing floor
Only three rookie-year QBs have posted top-12 production on a per-game basis over the past 10 years: 2016 Dak Prescott (QB9), 2019 Kyler Murray (QB11), and 2020 Justin Herbert (QB7).
The former two talents racked up more than enough rushing production in college to indicate that this was a possibility, while the latter at least put up the sort of quality testing numbers to infer there was perhaps more meat on the bone in that department at the next level.
š 2023 notes:
- Anthony Richardson just broke the combine and is easily the best rusher of the incoming class.
- Bryce Young only ran for 162 yards in 34 games at Alabama, but his reported 4.52-second 40-yard dash paints the picture of someone capable of much more.
- Will Levis scored 17 rushing touchdowns over the course of his collegiate career; the man is being comped to Josh Allen left and right for a reason.
- C.J. Stroud spent the majority of his time in Columbus doing everything in his power to NOT run the football, but his showcase against Georgia demonstrated that the ability to pick up chunks on the ground is indeed there.
š Thereās less year-to-year turnover at the position relative to RB, WR and TE
Overall, 44 different QBs have made up the last 10 yearās worth of top-12 fantasy performers. This is lower than RB (56), WR (50) and TE (47) alike.
š 2023 notes:
The fantasy industry has done a rather great job at identifying the positionās top-tier performers in recent years, but the same canāt be said for the bottom-half of the QB1 bucket.
Combining this principle with early 2023 Underdog Fantasy ADP, we should expect far less turnover from the top-six signal-callers when compared to the back half of the QB landscape.
"Trust me, Lamar, you'll want to come back here. We just added Nelson Agholor."
