The greatest shooters in NBA history: Steph Curry, Ray Allen, and P.J. Washington.
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by BetMGM.
NBA Monday: Buy low on OKC?
2024 NBA Draft: Hawks jump to the top spot.
PGA Championship: Three trends to note for the year’s second major
It’s 5/13. Take it away, Matt LaMarca
The first round of the postseason was a bit lackluster, but we’ve made up for it in the second round. Two series are tied at two games apiece, while the other two will have a chance to join them on Monday.
Things get started with the Celtics against the Cavaliers in Cleveland. The Cavs managed to pull off the upset in Game 2, but they’re significant underdogs in Game 4.
The more interesting matchup is the Thunder vs. the Mavericks. Dallas has jumped out to a 2-1 lead, and with the series still in Dallas, they’ll have a chance to put the top seed in a 3-1 hole.
Can the Mavericks get the job done? Let’s dive in.
⚡️ Thunder ML at Mavericks (+102; FanDuel)
I picked the Mavericks to win at the start of the series, so it certainly doesn’t surprise me that they’re up 2-1. However, how they’ve gotten to 2-1 is a bit unexpected. Luka Doncic has bounced back after an awful Game 1, but he still hasn’t quite been Luka Doncic. He’s averaged just 25.5 points in Games 2 and 3, albeit with 12.5 rebounds and 6.0 assists per contest.
Instead, it has been the unreal shooting numbers for P.J. Washington that has led Dallas to victory. He was 7-11 from 3-point range in Game 2, and he followed that up with five more 3-pointers in Game 3. Washington was just a 32.0% 3-point shooter during the regular season, so that doesn’t feel like a sustainable formula.
The Thunder were also beat up on the boards in Game 3. They actually had a better eFG% than Dallas – 53.1% vs. 48.9% – but the Mavericks had 15 offensive boards. OKC hasn’t been a great rebounding team this season, but neither has Dallas: both teams rank outside the top 25 in team rebound rate. I would expect a more concerted effort from the Thunder on the glass in Game 3.
Ultimately, this feels like a strong buy-low spot for the Thunder. The sharps have already pushed this line down from +2.5 to +1.5, so there’s not quite as much value with the number. At this point, I’d rather grab the moneyline at +102.
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⚾️ A new week means new series. Best bets for Monday’s MLB slate.
🏒 The Hurricanes are on their last leg. Top picks for today’s NHL games.
🤔 Rory wins big at Quail Hollow. But can he finally break out of his major championship slump?
💯 It’s better to be lucky than good. The Hawks jump all the way to No. 1 in the 2024 NBA Draft.
🇫🇷 The French Revolution? Alexandre Sarr is looking to join countryman Victor Wembanyama as the top pick in the draft.
🐐 Down goes the GOAT. Novak Djokovic loses as a -1430 favorite at the Italian Open.
📉 From $100k to $57k. Would you consider the cashout after OKC’s Game 3 loss?
🐦⬛ The Chiefs and Ravens will open the regular season. Can Lamar pull off the big upset in Week 1?
🩸 The Oilers are down, and their best player took a beating after the game. Things aren’t going great in Oil Town.
The PGA Championship begins this Thursday at Valhalla Golf Club in Kentucky. Geoff Ulrich will have a full betting preview out in our Wednesday newsletter, but for today, he’s going through a course preview, some important betting trends, and an early name to add to your betting cards.
The last time Valhalla Golf Club hosted the PGA Championship was in August 2014. It played as a Par-71 that season but was limited to 7,400 yards. Since then, some tee boxes have been pushed back, the fairways were changed to zoysiagrass, and the course lengthened to 7,609 yards. As such, we should expect it to favor players with high ball flights and lots of power off the tee, traits that we have seen from most recent winners of this event — including Brooks Koepka, who gained 4.7 strokes Off the Tee (OTT) in his win at Oak Hill last season.
Since we don’t have a ton of course history associated with this venue, we’ll be looking more at general championship trends for betting along with recent form. I went over and noted some of the more important ones and also used them to help decide on my early-week betting target (which you can find in our on-site article by clicking the link at the end of this segment).
🏆 Major experience of recent PGA Championship winners
Of the past 10 winners of the PGA Championship, only one had failed to record a top 10 at a previous major before his win (Morikawa 2020).
This is an interesting stat for betting purposes, and (spoiler) it’s one I‘m also fading in my early week pick. While you don’t want to write off players who haven’t cracked the top 10 at a big event yet, major championship experience tends to breed major championship success. Additionally, the last three winners of this event (Justin Thomas, Phil Mickelson, Koepka) had not only won a major but had won THIS major at least once before.
🏌️ Recent form of PGA Championship winners (results):
Seven of the past eight winners of the PGA Championship played in an event the week before their win (Mickelson in 2021 is the exception).
Since 2019, the PGA has been played in May four times, and the winner of the PGA has finished no worse than T21 at Augusta in the year’s first major. Three of the four winners finished T8 or better at Augusta.
You don’t want to follow result trends too rigorously but in this case, success at the first major has been a relatively simple yardstick to follow. Brooks Koepka finished 2nd at Augusta a month before each of his last two PGA Championship wins, while Justin Thomas put up a T8 at the Masters directly before his 2022 PGA Championship victory.
Additionally, Koepka and Thomas kept their good runs going with some solid play between Augusta and the PGA in 2022 and 2023, and every winner from 2019 onwards, except Mickelson in 2021, played the week prior with at least moderate success (T20 or better).
📈 Recent statistical form of the last three PGA winners:
Outside of Phil Mickelson (2021) each of the last 10 winners of the PGA Championship gained strokes Off the Tee and on Approach in their final start before winning the PGA Championship.
Thomas (2017 and 2022), Morikawa (2020), and Koepka (2018 and 2019) all gained over 4.0 strokes on approach in at least two of their final six starts leading up to their PGA Championship wins.
Players who do well generally gain the majority of their strokes on approach, hence why it is such a good indicator. Looking back at some of the past winners, we can see they had several big weeks on approach in their lead-ups.
Some current players who fit these two trends for 2024 include:
Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg, Scottie Scheffler, Corey Conners, Tom Hoge, Sepp Straka, and Rory McIlroy
Click here for Geoff’s early PGA Championship bet
