Over/under 5.5 Jets games in primetime next season?
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Fantasy Life’s NFL Draft Stream:
- The Packers finally traded Aaron Rodgers to the Jets
- “Money is nice. Championships are better.” — Jalen Hurts
- Draft Deadline Deals: Who to trade before the draft
- Mock draft szn continues. Picks Nos. 24, 25 and 26
- It’s 4/25. Take it away, Ian Hartitz…
Officially official: Aaron Rodgers will be playing football for the New York Jets next season.
✍️ Trade Details
The Packers and Jets swapped first-round picks (sorry mock drafters), while Green Bay also gets a 2023 second-round pick along with a 2024 conditional second that becomes a first IF Rodgers plays 65% of the snaps in the 2023 campaign.
The marquee storyline of the 2023 offseason, everyone has known this was Rodgers’ intention ever since his infamous appearance on “The Pat McAfee Show” back on March 15, but reported disconnect in the compensation resulted in another six weeks of waiting.
I don’t know whether Andy Dufresne emerging from a river of sh*t or LeBron James’ “It’s about d*mn time” moment is a better vibe for the occasion; either way, football fans can finally evaluate the move without adding “if it happens” to the conversation.
❓How good is Rodgers these days?
Fantasy Life Director of Analytics and all-around cool dude Dwain “The Rock” McFarland noted the following on Rodgers shortly after the trade was first brought to light:
“The 18-year veteran will be 39 at the beginning of the 2023 season, but he can still make all of the throws and has an uncanny ability to create big plays off-script. Over the last three years, Rodgers has the third-most TDs (14) on scramble drill plays, per PFF data. He stands in ELITE company, trailing just Patrick Mahomes (18) and Josh Allen (18).
He delivered a career-low 15 fantasy points per game in 2022 but wasn’t playing with a full deck after the trade of Davante Adams to the Raiders. Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb were his top two options until late in the season when he and Christian Watson found a groove, producing seven TD passes from Week 10 to 18.”
Adding Rodgers to the Jets is objectively great news for everyone involved in the organization.
One exception: Zach Wilson. People don’t forget!
📈 Fantasy impact in New York
Of course, the inevitability of the move has already resulted in key Jets parties receiving solid bumps in the fantasy markets: Breece Hall (Underdog ADP RB6) and Garrett Wilson (WR9) are both already going among the top-10 players at their position, while the only reason Allen Lazard (WR57), Mecole Hardman (WR82), Corey Davis (WR99), Tyler Conklin (TE29) and C.J. Uzomah (TE32) are as cheap as they are is due to the slight uncertainty of the pecking order at the WR2, WR3 and TE1 spots.
If anything, I’m a little concerned about just how expensive these top two options are:
Hall could be a bit overvalued, not so much because of his knee recovery, but more because new OC Nathaniel Hackett has historically leaned on committee backfields:
Look no further than Aaron Jones’ usage over the years and more recently Javonte Williams’ mediocre snap rates before getting injured in 2022.
Wilson flashed all over the place as a rookie and managed to average over 17 fantasy points per game with both Mike White and Joe Flacco under center.
And yet, his 83-1,103-4 receiving line was “only” good for WR31 honors in PPR points per game; failure to completely dominate target share over Rodgers’ long-time comrade Allen Lazard — who the Jets just agreed to pay $44 million — could make Davante Adams-esque volume hard to come by.
Nobody is debating the sky-high talent level of Hall or Wilson, just realize they’re being drafted alongside plenty of other objective ballers who might have clearer pathways to the sort of elite fantasy-friendly volume required to boom enough to warrant top-two-round fantasy draft capital.
Lazard and Hardman will be on the rise in a hurry should trade murmurs around Davis come to fruition, while Conklin flashed far more pass-game upside than Uzomah during their respective first seasons with gang green. The ex-Vikings TE is probably the best value bet of the entire group at the moment.
It’s a great day to be a Jets fan. Here’s to hoping the 2023 version of Rodgers fully regains his 2020-21 form and this goes a bit better than that one time Brett Favre did the same thing.
The NFL Draft is almost here! Sam Wallace offers up a few players dynasty managers should cash out on before their value takes a plunge.
🐥 Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier
I don’t have too many mottos in my life, but one principle I try to follow in fantasy football goes something like this:
Sell Day 3 rookie RBs who showed potential as rookies.
Sure, I may end up missing out on certain players who break the mold (I see you, James Robinson), but historical context is on my side.
I’m talking about Atlanta RB and fifth-round pick Tyler Allgeier.
He topped 200 carries and 1,000 rushing yards as a rookie. And yet, this is the perfect time to cash out.
In his 2023 Mock Draft V3.0, Eliot Crist had the Falcons selecting none other than RB Bijan Robinson at No. 10 overall following a trade-down with the Eagles, noting: “The Falcons sit as +200 favorites to be the landing spot of a generational, blue-chip prospect…”
Even if Atlanta doesn’t draft Robinson, the Falcons still have picks 44 and 75 to potentially add day two draft capital to the equation. This sort of high-end addition to the backfield would tank whatever value Allgeier has.
I don’t believe Allgeier’s value will climb any higher. This week could be the last chance you have to maximize your return.
📉 Vikings WR K.J. Osborn
Despite not recording a single target as a rookie, Vikings WR K.J. Osborn has posted consecutive seasons of 50-plus receptions, 650-plus receiving yards, and five-plus TDs.
That’s an impressive turnaround.
Osborn’s appeal is heightened following the departure of veteran WR Adam Thielen, whose overall production dipped in recent years — but he still averaged 100-plus targets and eight TDs per season since 2021.
Could Osborn fill that void? It’s possible.
However, Minnesota may add a rookie wideout this week. Fantasy Life analyst Chris Allen suggested getting this offense additional help when he “fixed the Vikings” last month.
Superstar WR Justin Jefferson remains the undisputed target-hog. Last year’s mid-season addition of TE T.J. Hockenson provided QB Kirk Cousins with an immediate downfield weapon. The ex-Lions TE was force-fed the ball and should remain the offense’s No. 2 pass-game option.
Osborn has flashed potential, but his career suggests those are outlier performances, not something we should expect moving forward.
His massive 10-157-1 Week 15 performance accounted for:
- 17% of his total targets
- 16% of his total receptions
- 24% of his total receiving yards
- 20% of his total fantasy points (PPR)
The ceiling is there, but three seasons’ worth of data indicates Osborn is nothing more than a fringe flex/bench player: His underlying numbers in yards per route run (1.19, 97th among 110 qualified WR) and targets per route run (14.5%, 104th) over the last two seasons are nothing to write home about.
Jefferson, Hockenson and a potential rookie WR should all be ahead of Osborn in the pecking order. Use the remaining days of Osborn as the designated “WR2” to sell him while he still has perceived value.
🏈 Fantasy Life's NFL Draft Stream
For the first time ever, you can watch the NFL Draft with your favorite Fantasy Life analysts.
Dwain McFarland, Peter Overzet, Chris Allen, Kendall Valenzuela, Eliot Crist, Marcas Grant (and more!) will be hosting a fun-filled four-hour live stream breaking down every pick and the fantasy impact from all angles.
- Redraft and dynasty implications
- Best Ball and DFS outlooks
- Sweat your draft day and futures bets
Join us to watch Eliot Crist drink coffee with mayonnaise (If Will Levis gets drafted second overall), and stay for industry-leading analysis, real-time data updates, and more.
Tune in at 7:45 PM EST on Thursday, April 27th on the Fantasy Life Live YouTube channel.
💸 J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS! Updated 2023 Super Bowl odds.
🤮 Yet another high-end QB now resides in the AFC. The NFC QBs are having a mid-off.
🙈 Don’t ignore these rookies. 5 players you NEED to pay attention to.
📷 Jets players are pretty, pretty, pretty pumped about their new QB. #NewProfilePic szn.
🔪 “The enemy speaks kindly & holds a knife.” This NFL team is tweeting like a WR.
📢 The Rumor Mill is swirling! All the latest draft gossip.
🙌 Now throw your hands in the Mayer and wave ‘em like you just don’t care. Amiright Cowboys fans?
🐬 The Dolphins are one of the most fantasy-friendly RB landing spots. They’re eyeing a certain someone.
🏆 Philly’s new $255 million QB held a press conference. Put this on a t-shirt ASAP.
⏩ New 49ers update on Trey Lance just dropped. Can we fast-forward to Week 1 already?
Fantasy Life's Eliot Crist just released V3.0 of his first-round mock draft that considers many factors, including betting odds and teams' drafting history, while pulling the curtain up on draft rumors and smoke screens. Today we are spotlighting his Nos. 24, 25, and 26 picks…
24. Jacksonville Jaguars: Brian Branch, DB, Alabama
One rumor I continue to hear is that if Branch is on the board at 24, expect him to be the pick for the Jaguars.
The first-team All-American safety has the versatility to also play nickel corner. Unfortunately, he will likely be announced as a corner on draft day, as it's his listed position on NFL.com, otherwise, I would be all over Jaguars first-pick safety at 25-1 odds.
25. New York Giants: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
The Giants are in desperate need of an X receiver, and they get the only one who is a first-round talent.
Johnston to the Giants is one of my favorite possible fits for any player and team. Not only does he fill a major void, but he also would fit in perfectly with the offense.
Often bigger receivers are vertical threats but struggle after the catch. Johnston isn’t just good after the catch, he is one of the best run-after-catch receivers in the last few drafts.
With Daniel Jones having a pedestrian six-yard aDOT, Johnston will need to use that skillset early and often in New York.
For the mere price of $1.99, you can access over 400 scouting reports and nearly 1,900 player rankings from The Beast - The Athletic's flagship NFL Draft guide. Read below for an excerpt from The Beast and sign up today for more!
📣 Summary from The Beast:
A three-year starter at TCU, Johnston was the X wide receiver in former offensive coordinator Garrett Riley’s RPO-based offense (played the Z receiver position in 2021). He led the team in receiving yards each of his three seasons in Fort Worth and was a big-play creator before and after the catch (No. 2 in the FBS with 8.9 YAC per reception in 2022).
A big man with small-man burst, Johnston accelerates well to stack, track and separate deep or create plays after the catch with his elusiveness, strength and instincts. His length and body control help him make impressive grabs away from his body, but he struggled with contested windows on tape and had more drops than touchdown catches in 2022.
Overall, Johnston requires polish with his route-running and ball-finishing skills, but he offers legitimate big-play potential with his size-speed athleticism and catch radius. He has NFL-starting traits with upside as he continues to develop
26. Dallas Cowboys: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
Jerry Jones has never had any patience. Now that he is 80 years old, the Cowboys owner is going to be all-in on winning now, so Kincaid being an older prospect may not be a negative to the Cowboys.
Dalton Kincaid is the draft's most dynamic receiver at TE and would head to a Cowboys TE room that is desperate for an injection of talent.
The Cowboys currently sit at +200 to take a TE — the shortest odds of any position.
📣 Summary from The Beast:
A two-year starter at Utah, Kincaid was an F tight end in offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig’s offense.
An FCS transfer, he became the main target in the Utes’ offense as a senior after Brant Kuithe was injured and led all FBS tight ends in receiving yards (74.2) and receptions (5.8) per game, just ahead of Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer in both categories (67.4 and 5.6, respectively).
With his basketball background, Kincaid has fluid movement skills and flashes the short-area quickness to open stride and accelerate in and out of his breaks. He is a natural ball winner and shows confidence in his hands, doing most of his damage when catching the ball on the move (remarkable 35-to-4 touchdown-to-drop ratio in college).
Overall, Kincaid is still developing his play strength and consistency as a blocker, but he is an above-average pass catcher with the burst, body control and ball skills to be a weapon in the slot. He projects as a playmaking “move” tight end in the NFL.
