🌴 The UFC Heads to South Beach

I wonder what Sean O’Malley’s idea of casual Friday looks like?

In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by BetMGM.

If you haven’t been paying attention, we’ve seen a big shift in the NBA towards unders recently. It culminated on Sunday when all eight games went under the listed total, leading to a big payday for a few individuals.

A handful of teams have yet to see a game go over in the season’s unofficial second half, including the Warriors (8-0 to the under) and Bucks (7-0).

The big question is – will the low-scoring trend continue, or is it just a blip on the radar?

Unders were a big trend during the NFL season as well, so it’s certainly something to keep your eye on. There has been sharp money tracked on the under for six of Friday’s eight NBA contests, so the pros certainly seem aware of this growing trend.

Speaking of Friday, let’s dive into a couple of my favorite plays:

🪶 New Orleans Pelicans (-7.5) at Philadelphia 76ers (-108; FanDuel)

I was fortunate enough to lock this bet in early at -6.5 — which you can find in our NBA Bet Tracker — but it’s still firmly in play for me at -7.5. The Pelicans are going to essentially be at full strength for this matchup, while the 76ers are in shambles.

Joel Embiid remains sidelined, and his absence has been a major issue for the 76ers this season. They’ve been one of the best teams in basketball with Embiid available, posting a 26-8 record, but they’re just 9-19 without their star big man.

Making matters worse, Tyrese Maxey will join Embiid on the sidelines for the third straight game. Unsurprisingly, the team has lost each of their past two outings without Embiid and Maxey, and they’ve come against two subpar opponents in the Grizzlies and Nets.

The Pelicans represent a clear step up in weight class. They’re just 4-3 since the All-Star break, but their record belies how good they’ve been during that stretch. They’ve outscored their opponents by +12.8 points per 100 possessions, which is the second-best mark in the NBA. Only the Celtics have been better, thanks in large part to a 52-point win over the Warriors.

The Pels are locked in a battle for one of the final guaranteed playoff spots in the Western Conference, so every game is massive for them at the moment. They should be focused for this matchup vs. the 76ers, and as long as they are, I don’t see how Philly can keep up.

🧱 Vasillije Micic Under 21.5 points + assists (-105; DraftKings)

If your first thought when reading this prop is “Who?” — I’d like to officially welcome you to late-season NBA.

We’ve reached the point in the year where teams near the bottom of the standings stop trying to win games, leading to big workloads for unknown players.

Micic has appeared in 41 games this season – 30 for the Thunder, 11 for the Hornets – but he’s started each of the past two. He had an excellent showing in his last game vs. the Magic, racking up 21 points and four assists, but I wouldn’t expect that kind of production moving forward. He’s had just two games this year with more than 13 points, and he’s gone over 21.5 points + assists in just two of 11 games with the Hornets. He is playing slightly more as a member of the starting lineup, but this number seems a bit too inflated.

The Paydirt sims seem to agree, with Micic going under 21.5 points + assists in more than 76.5% of their simulations. I’m happy to grab this under at -105.

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📺 UFC 299’s stacked card is one sleep away. How to dominate the betting streets with an MMA expert.

🔒 It’s NFL extension SZN. A premier cornerback gets rewarded with a four-year deal.

📝 It’s never too early to start drafting. Overzet breaks down his early strategy for best ball.

🚌 Will the Russ Bus land in Pittsburgh? The Steelers are heavy favorites.

🦌 Fear the Deer? At least on defense. An apocalyptic second half pushes the Bucks to 15-2 to the under with Doc Rivers.

😮 Avert your eyes, Ottawa bettors. Cam Talbot with the save of the season.

📉 What will 16 straight losses get you? On DraftKings, it’ll get you the top odds for the worst record in the league.

👂 Iron Mike returns. Tyson v Paul, July 20th on Netflix.

🏀 The Clark effect. Women’s hoops are big with bettors. 

The UFC brings the “Suga Show” to Miami for UFC 299 this Saturday night. Bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley headlines the event in his first title defense against Marlon Vera. The stacked 14-fight card is packed with highly competitive matchups featuring many of the UFC’s biggest names, making it a lock to get the blood pumping for bettors. Mark Drumheller cuts to the action with his UFC 299 best bets.

🌈 Sean O’Malley Over Marlon Vera by Decision (+125, FanDuel) 

O’Malley is already the UFC’s most polarizing champion. Fight fans are either watching to see him pull off one of his prolific knockouts or hoping to see him get laid out on the canvas. 

I hate to be that guy, but the best bet for UFC 299’s main event is that both crowds will go home unhappy. The total of 4.5 rounds should give betters an indication of what to expect: Five rounds of chess from two of the bantamweight division’s elite strikers. 

O’Malley’s crushing knockout of Aljamain Sterling proved there will be consequences for anyone entering the pocket with reckless aggression. I don’t see Vera overcommitting or forcing the action, regardless of how the fight goes. Vera historically starts slow, but in his last two bouts (Sandhagen and Munhoz) he also failed to crank up the urgency in the later rounds, even when he was clearly behind on the scorecards.

If he wasn’t willing to go for broke against lesser competition, why should bettors believe he will against his most dangerous opponent? 

All signs point to O’Malley dominating at range for an easy decision win. The champion averages an unreal 7.25 significant strikes per minute, while Vera routinely absorbs more shots than he dishes out (-0.79 striking differential). There is always a chance O’Malley hands Vera the first knockout loss of his career, but the more probable outcome is “Suga” outclassing him for five rounds. Take the plus money and run.

🥊 Petr Yan Over Song Yadong by Decision (+130, DraftKings)

The over 2.5 rounds has been bet as high as -298 in this matchup. Let’s take advantage by grabbing Yan at +140 to win on the judge’s scorecards (rather than his moneyline price of -115) in a fight that is very likely to go the distance.

I love this as a nice buy-low spot on Yan. The former bantamweight champion is amid a three-fight losing streak after dropping decisions to O’Malley, Merab Dvalishvili, and Sterling. There are two key takeaways from Yan’s recent losses: He has been highly competitive against the division’s elite and has never been knocked out or submitted in his entire career. 

In a bout that’s likely to play out on the feet, I favor Yan to pull away throughout three rounds. He is the more accurate striker (53%-42%) with a higher output (+0.65 SLpm) and slightly better striking defense (+2%). Yadong’s last loss was a TKO stoppage to Cory Sandhagen, who coincidentally is the same fighter Yan defeated to earn his last win. Common opponents aren’t always the best barometer, but in this case, it highlights the step up in class this fight represents for Yadong. I am all over Yan at the discounted price.