💎 The WR Gem Available Late In Drafts

I need an extension tool that removes Niners’ QB news from my feed until a starter is announced…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

• The 2nd-year WR ready to breakout
• What’s going on with the Niners’ QBs?
• Strength of Schedule: Teams to target
• Team Preview: Pittsburgh Steelers
• It’s 6/1. Take it away, Peter Overzet

It’s finally June, which I think means that it is now socially acceptable to draft fantasy teams.

It was getting exhausting prefacing every newsletter piece with caveats like, “I know it’s only May, but…” and feeling judgment for having drafted hundreds of teams before Memorial Day.

But those days are long behind us. And now, we have players on the field working out under the umbrella of “Organized Team Activities” aka OTAs aka “something that sounds like it would be on the agenda for a sixth-grade overnight retreat.”

Sifting through training camp buzz will be something we do around here all summer long as we try to separate what is signal from what is noise. And it’s important to stay grounded with the grainy training camp footage flying around.

That said, I can’t help but start to get excited about Patriots WR Tyquan Thornton, who is impressing early:

Thornton checks a lot of boxes for what I’m looking for in a fantasy selection:

He’s cheap. I prefer to load up on WRs early and often, but sometimes a specific draft room pushes you to other positions and forces you to take late-round WR fliers. Thornton is currently going off the board in the 15th and 16th rounds of drafts as the WR81:

Draft capital. He was a 2022 second-round pick, and the Patriots went out of their way to scheme him touches down the stretch last year, including a 7-target, 60-yard, 1-TD game in Week 17 vs. the Dolphins.

Sophomore breakout. Thornton falls into a cohort of players that we traditionally like to bet on: 2nd-year WRs who flashed efficiency in Year 1.

Best-ball-friendly skill set. Thornton can stretch the field thanks to his blazing 4.28 speed and hit those splash plays we crave in fantasy.

Weak WR depth chart. Sure, the team brought in JuJu Smith-Schuster in free agency, but it’s a real mixed bag across the board with replacement-level veterans like DeVante Parker, Kendrick Bourne, and Nelson Agholor.

The TLDR: The buzz is there, the profile is there, and the price is very nice. Go draft him, even though I know it’s only June…

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❓ Who will be the Niners’ starting QB? Lots of reports from yesterday.

🖐️ A second-year WR makes a nice grab at camp. Too bad he’s suspended to start the year.

✂️ Will Dalvin Cook be cut? Another avenue sounds more plausible.

🚀A wild career arc for a buzzy RB. So what’s it going to be?

🤔 Will the Jets pursue DeAndre Hopkins? Robert Saleh weighs in.

🚑️ An update on Breece Hall. Will he be ready for Week 1?

🚀 The WR on the cusp of a breakout campaign? It’s a wide-open depth chart.

Recently, sportsbooks released odds around every game for the 2023 season and our own Dwain McFarland dove into the data to see what fantasy insights we can uncover…

Historically, what oddsmakers have had to say about NFL scoring has mattered. While they typically don’t nail the exact score, directionally, as Vegas team totals shift higher, so do the actual points.

With this knowledge in our back pocket, let’s dive into some high-level takeaways for the 2023 NFL schedule based on projected team totals.

🧨 Shootout potential

Seven teams are projected for three-plus shootouts over the course of the 2023 season. In this case, a shootout is a game where both teams project for 23-plus points.

The Chiefs, Chargers, Lions and Vikings account for 45% of the shootouts. The Chiefs and Chargers face off in two potential shootouts, and the AFC West plays the NFC North in interconference play. We can account for a whopping 56% of projected shootouts between the AFC West and NFC North.

While our primary focus for game stacking is in the playoff weeks (15 to 17), picking up additional shootout correlation throughout the season is a bonus. The Bears aren’t getting a ton of buzz outside of Justin Fields and D.J. Moore, but they have three shootout potential games and overlap with the Vikings and Lions. As highlighted in yesterday’s newsletter, oddsmakers are expecting better things from Chicago in 2023.

Of course, several of these teams face off in shootout matchups between Weeks 15 and 17.

• Bills: Week 16 vs. Chargers
• Lions: Week 16 vs. Vikings
• Chargers: Week 16 vs. Bills
• Vikings: Week 16 vs. Chargers

Speaking of playoff matchups, let's take a look at which teams project for the most points during that stretch.

🧃 Juicy fantasy playoff expectations (Weeks 15 through 17)

For the most part, the projected team totals follow the good offenses from the regular season into the fantasy playoffs. However, the Vikings jump from 10th to 5th in the playoffs with two big team totals in Weeks 16 and 17 against the Lions (25 points) and Packers (24.25 points).

While none of the teams with overall shootout potential had more than one shootout matchup in the playoff weeks, we see many of the same names projecting for high team totals. The Chiefs, Eagles, Bills, Vikings and Lions appear on both lists.

Speaking of the NFL schedule, have you identified the games YOU want to attend this season? With Fantasy Life's exclusive ticket provider, Epic Seats, you can get the best deals for the best games, all season long. Get your tickets today!

Fantasy Life senior analyst Ian Hartitz is breaking down all 32 NFL teams over the next two months. Let’s take a look at the Steelers, who need a big second year from their QB…

🏈 RBs

• Najee Harris (Ian’s RB15)
• Jaylen Warren (RB43)

Harris wasn’t quite as good in 2022 compared to 2021 in terms of raw yards per carry (3.8 vs. 3.9) and yards per target (5 vs. 4.3), but that’s not why he went from the RB7 in PPR points per game to the RB19.

That answer: Pass-game volume. Old man Ben Roethlisberger fed Harris a ridiculous 94 targets as a rookie; that total was nearly cut in half down to 53 in 2022. This dropped Harris’ expected PPR points per game from 19.7 (RB2 behind only Derrick Henry!) to 14.9 (RB12).

While Harris deserves credit for never missing a game and being able to hurdle, truck and spin his way around defenders of all shapes and sizes, his lack of big-play ability makes it tough for him to overcome any sort of volume decline. This is especially true inside of a Steelers offense that ranked 21st and 26th in scoring in 2021 and 2022.

It’s certainly possible that Harris gets a bit better TD luck near the goal line.

Imagine if even four of those close calls were followed by another attempt that found the end zone. In that scenario, Harris would have finished last season as the RB12 in PPR points per game.

The problem with drafting Harris at his RB13 ADP is whether or not there’s much of a ceiling past his borderline RB1 production. Any combination of improved offense, efficiency and/or volume would make Harris a bargain at his current ADP … as long as he continues to hold off his rising second-year competition.

Jaylen Warren made more out of his opportunities than Harris all season long in 2022, ultimately earning more chances down the stretch with at least a 30% snap rate in six of his seven healthy games following the team’s Week 12 bye. This wasn’t the norm under Tomlin previously: Seven of Harris’ 12 least-used games in terms of offensive snap rate occurred during the final nine weeks of 2022.

It’s tough to blame the Steelers for making this usage change; the rookie back was out-performing Harris in every facet of the game.

It’s not fair to assume that Warren would have maintained his efficiency advantages over Harris with the same hefty workload. Harris’ numbers also improved – albeit still didn’t match up to Warren – after he had a steel plate removed from his cleat.

However, the other assumption I had that the rookie faced lighter boxes is inaccurate: Harris (40.4%) and Warren (40.3%) faced eight-plus defenders in the box on a nearly identical percentage of carries last season. The latter back also had superior usage in fantasy-friendly third-down situations.

It’s unreasonable to expect Warren to straight-up take over this backfield, but the back half of 2022 already demonstrated that, at a minimum, Mike “I’m a featured runner-type guy” Tomlin is willing to reduce Harris’ previously ridiculous workload.

Right now, Harris’s ADP is at about the point where I’m moving on to WRs and/or taking Jahmyr Gibbs a few picks later. Meanwhile, I have drafted more Warren than any other player at the position thanks to his cheap and elite handcuff upside in an offense that historically has been more willing than just about any other group over the years to simply leave one RB on the field for an entire 60 minutes and still did so on occasion in 2022.

What about the QBs, WRs, and TEs?

PLUS, you can watch or listen to Ian & Dwain breaking down the whole Steelers team.

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