Hi there, we're back from our darkness retreat and feeling very enlightened...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter:
- 6 Quick Hitters: Cap casualties, Trade candidates, & Injury timelines
- The best rookie RB has a great origin story
- What Now?: How to survive the offseason
- Dynasty Rookie Profile: Quentin Johnston
- It's 2/27. Take it away, Peter Overzet.
When we last left you guys, we were checking in on the epic showdown between Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Since then, not much has changed on that front.
Jackson is currently receiving guidance from the NFLPA on his ongoing contract extension, and ESPN's Jamison Hensley and Jeremy Fowler recently reported that Jackson is still seeking a fully guaranteed contract that exceeds what Deshaun Watson got.
Here is a roundup of everything else notable that has transpired over the last week we've been away...
✂️ Could Joe Mixon be a cap casualty?
Jay Morrison hinted at it in this blurb on The Athletic. The team could save $7.3 million by cutting Mixon before June 1.
In doing so, they could reallocate that money to "more pressing needs," resign Samaje Perine "at a much lower cost," or find a young back in the draft. Mixon is currently going at pick 62.7 (RB19) in Underdog drafts.
🧳 Will CEH get sent packing?
Per Nate Taylor, the Chiefs are expected to decline the fifth-year option on Edwards-Helaire's contract, meaning he's a "logical candidate to be traded this offseason."
If so, it seems very likely that Kansas City would use a draft pick to acquire another body for the backfield along with Isiah Pacheco and potentially Jerick McKinnon (FA).
First-round RB with fifth-year option picked up since 2011:
Yes and/or signed extension:
Todd Gurley
Melvin Gordon
Ezekiel Elliott
CMC
Saquon BarkleyNo:
Mark Ingram
Trent Richardson
Doug Martin
David Wilson
Leonard Fournette
Rashaad Penny
Sony Michel
Josh Jacobs
CEH— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz)
Feb 26, 2023
🤑 Jakobi Meyers is this year's Christian Kirk
We've previously outlined how this is a pretty weak free-agent class for WRs, so it should come as no surprise that the best available pass catchers will fetch a hefty contract. Here's what Mike Reiss said in a recent piece on ESPN:
....if Meyers ultimately lands a deal consistent with those of his ilk, he’ll be earning in the range of $15 million to $20 million per season."
Drafters are already planning accordingly, with Meyers going in the top 100 pick in Big Board drafts as WR47.
Still think there's value in Jakobi Meyers ADP at 95.5 on @UnderdogFantasy (WR47)
- 13 PPR points per game in 2022 (WR28)
- 1.9 yards per route run
- Arguably best FA WR available, many good offenses want to add oneSee many avenues where his prices jumps to 60-80s by Aug twitter.com/NBCSEdgeFB/sta…
— Sam Sherman (@Sherman_FFB)
Feb 26, 2023
🚑 Will Javonte Williams be ready for the start of the season?
In addition to suffering a torn right ACL in Week 4, tests later confirmed that he had a much more serious injury involving a torn lateral collateral ligament and damage to the posterolateral corner ("an area of ligaments and tendons on the outside the knee that help stabilize the joint").
ESPN Senior writer Jeff Legwold thinks his rehab could "keep him out well into the 2023 season." Denver seems like a candidate to draft another a RB to take pressure off a quick return for Williams.
🤣 The Bucs are pretending they like Kyle Trask
You know we are in the doldrums of the offseason when Bucs QB Kyle Trask is getting hyped up.
Bruce Arians said, "I think we're in good hands with (Kyle) Trask" and Offensive Coordinator Dave Canales said he envisions Trask as a "very efficient point guard."
Ok, guys. Definitely.
📅 An update on Kyler Murray's timeline
Similar to Javonte in Denver, there is ambiguity surrounding Kyler's return timeline from his late-season ACL tear. He's expected to miss the start of the season, but is reportedly ahead of schedule.
Here's what Cardinals owner Michael Bidwill said:
"I think (his return) is going to be earlier than this midseason, so hopefully, it's toward the beginning of the season, but I don't want to put any specific dates. There could be setbacks, the progress could slow. But he's a young man, it looks like he is a fast healer, things are going well. Let's hope that keeps going the way it is."
Here's to hoping he's right because the team's only other option right now is Colt McCoy, who is also recovering from an injury.
🤯 The best rookie RB has quite an origin story. Incredible.
🎉 Happy birthday to one of the RB greats. Dude was unstoppable.
🌌 Exclusive footage from Aaron Rodgers’ darkness retreat. Powerful stuff.
🎞️ Long snapper hype reel? Long snapper hype reel.
😇 Robbie Anderson has changed his name...again.
🥛 RGIII is great at Twitter. This was a funny one.
😥 An impact player set to retire at age 30? This is a sad story.
Welcome, degenerates. We don’t unplug just because the NFL does. You’re still reading because you are here for the long haul. “What now, Cooterdoodle?” Let’s break down ways to survive the off-season...
🏕️ Survival Tip #1: Anything Goes
As we bide time awaiting the NFL draft, it’s hard to avoid over-the-top speculation. But this time of year is an emotional safe space.
This is the honey-moon phase of the off-season if you will. We’ve got time to kill and hope to keep alive.
When it comes to speculation, anything goes. Here’s some hype to get you through the week...
📷 Faux-toshopping
Rumors have been swirling around Lamar Jackson and where he might end up next season since word got out that he was unhappy in Baltimore last October. While we don’t know any specifics of the Ravens’ negotiations, the rumors continue to fuel their own flames.
With the rumor mill piping hot, many are vocal about wanting to see Jackson in Atlanta in 2023. Let’s face it, the NFC South could use a pick-me-up and fans are desperate for any clues that might prove this rumor true. I don’t care if it’s photoshopped. I, too, want a world where Drake London gets an upgrade at QB. Just let me believe!
Not sure what this means, but I was able to screenshot it before it was pulled from the nfl shop site👀
— The Book of Boba Brett (@Snywalker)
Feb 24, 2023
🏅 One move away from the Hall of Fame
We all know Derek Carr is making moves and weighing his options. He has met with the Saints and ate with the Jets, but the most recent reports claim Carr is looking for a team that will pay 35 mil a year.
New Orleans seems fitting in more ways than one, but New York has taken the route of wining, dining, and making promises they can’t keep.
The #Jets believe that if Derek Carr comes to New York he could be a "first ballot Hall of Famer", according to @diannaESPN
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman)
Feb 22, 2023
I suppose if fans can dream big, NFL teams can, too. Anything goes… for now.
With the Super Bowl behind us, it is time to turn our attention to the NFL Draft and the 2023 rookie class. Today our resident dynasty guru Jonathan profiles one of the top WRs in the class...
👑 Quentin Johnston
- Rookie Draft ADP: 5
- Underdog ADP: 79
At 6’4” Quentin Johnston quite literally stands out in a class full of smaller receivers. Despite his size, he has very good burst and is excellent at creating yards after the catch. He can win in all three levels of the passing game and is a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball.
Johnston isn’t a perfect prospect and has a ways to go to refine his route running, but he has the athleticism and size to be an elite separator if he continues to develop the technical parts of his game.
Of the three receivers I have in my top tier, Johnston has the widest range of outcomes. His physical traits give him a ceiling that very few receivers possess, but there are enough holes in his game that it isn’t too hard to see a bust case as well.
👑 Traits
For a player who made so many plays downfield in college, his technique at the catch point is pretty poor. He generally relied on his length and vertical in contested catch situations and regularly fails to high point the ball which is unlikely to be as effective against NFL corners.
He will also need to develop new ways to beat press man coverage as he showed a relatively limited release package in those situations. This was particularly evident against Georgia in the National Championship game when Johnston was consistently denied a free release and struggled to get open, ending the game with one catch for three yards.
The good news is a lot of Jonhston’s weaknesses are fixable, but the bad news is they are still weaknesses after three years of playing high level college football at a Power 5 school.
👑 Fantasy Impact
Johnston seems to be a lock for the first round, and will likely be a top-20 pick barring any surprises between now and draft day.
That draft capital should also solidify his place as a top-5 non-QB pick in rookie drafts this year.
