📈 There's A New 1.01 In Fantasy Drafts

Good morning to everyone except Sam Darnold truthers...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter:

• The Panthers land Baker Mayfield
• How to target the Chargers in fantasy drafts
• A sick illustration from Sam Holt
• Matt Harmon's Reception Perception: Mike Williams
• Full Disclosure: Justin Herbert
• Team preview: Los Angeles Chargers
• It’s 7/7. Take it away, Peter Overzet…

Earlier this week we asked whether anyone wanted Baker Mayfield or not and yesterday we got our answer:

A new QB in Carolina: The #Panthers are acquiring former No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield from the #Browns for a 2024 conditional 5th-round draft pick, sources tell me and @TomPelissero. Deal is pending a physical. All parties split the financials to make it happen.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet)
Jul 6, 2022

This isn't necessarily a move that flips the fantasy landscape on its head, but it should give drafters more confidence in Christian McCaffrey as the 1.01 over Jonathan Taylor, DJ Moore as a WR1 (listen to Matthew's take here), and Robbie Anderson and Terrace Marshall as late round fliers. 

The Panthers appeared to have played this perfectly, sacrificing only a 5th rounder and $5 million. Mayfield will take a pay cut on his way out of Cleveland, but he has to be thrilled about the change of scenery.

As for Sam Darnold, the team says they have no plans on trading him. 

Now that we got the Panthers appetizer out of the way, let's get ready to feast on a Chargers entrée in today's newsletter. We've got tips on how to approach the team in drafts, as well as extended profiles on Mike Williams and Justin Herbert. Let's dig in...

The Chargers are a super interesting team for fantasy this year. 

Everyone knows this offense will put up a bunch of points (it’s why Justin Herbert is now being selected as QB2 on Underdog at pick 44), but where exactly the points will come from is up for debate.

When I’m attacking the Chargers in drafts, these are the three big questions I’m asking myself…

⚡ How much work will Austin Ekeler lose to rookie Isaiah Spiller?

Ekeler is coming off the best rushing season of his career and is currently being drafted in the first round as the RB3. The team only spent a fourth-round pick on Spiller (the youngest RB in the class), but there are reasons to be cautious with Ekeler at his current price.

Ekeler himself is on the record not wanting to carry the ball 206 times like he did last season and Spiller has the talent profile to succeed with his touches. 

I’m not specifically fading Ekeler because of Spiller (it’s more that I prefer Stefon Diggs in that range), but I am heavily targeting Spiller as a player who could carve out a standalone role and could also have bellcow upside in the event of an injury. 

⚡ Who will lead this team in targets between Keenan Allen and Mike Williams?

Allen and Williams are current ADP twins on Underdog going at pick 27 and 28, respectively. 

For years we’ve seen Allen dominate targets in this offense, but in 2021 we saw glimpses of Williams narrowing the gap. He compiled 31 targets and 4 TDs in the first three games of last season, but then cooled off.

I always have a bias for the younger, ascending players so I prefer Williams in this head-to-head. There is also data pointing toward a real decline for Allen at this stage in his career. 

For more Williams propaganda, I recommend checking out Waz’s Full Disclosure piece on him from the other day and scroll down for Matt Harmon's Reception Perception. 

⚡ Could we get a big season from one of Joshua Palmer or Gerald Everett?

Palmer is a bit pricey for me in drafts–I think there are a decent amount of scenarios where he loses some outside snaps to speedster Jaylen Guyton–but I am very much in on Everett, who the team signed in free agency to replace Jared Cook.

Outside of the elite guys, TE production is mostly correlated to good offenses and good QBs. As the current TE18 going off the board after pick 150, Everett offers us cheap access to one of the most exciting offenses in football.

I see no reason he couldn’t have a Dawson Knox-esque year with Herbert. He’s a priority target for me in virtually every draft format. 

With Reception Perception, Matt Harmon studies the film on WRs, tracks and interprets the data, and then delivers the goods. Today he is swinging by the Fantasy Life offices to get us hyped on the Chargers WRs. Take it away, Matt...

Mike Williams is coming off a career-high 129 targets in Year 1 of a new offense and that strong work earned him a new contract with the Chargers. The current Los Angeles coaching staff was far more imaginative with their deployment of Williams than the coaches he worked under previously.

Williams still primarily lined up as the X-receiver for LA. He was on the line for 77.3% of his snaps and outside for 86.8%. However, his route tree was a bit more evolved. 

His nine-route percentage was dialed back and he posted a 26.2% slant route rate. 

Williams responded to this role change with a solid 77.5% success rate on slants, while positing his usual strong marks on in-breaking intermediate and vertical routes. He’s not just a downfield receiver.

Williams remains an average separator. At prior points in his career, he’s been mislabeled as “poor” in this regard but given his size and how many deep patterns he’s run, his overall success rates are far from poor.

His 67.1% success rate vs press and 79.7% success rate vs. zone were career-best marks for Williams. Given that he’s seeing more work as an over-the-middle player, Williams’ 60th percentile success rate vs. zone coverage mark is quite encouraging if he’s going to stay in this new role.

While separation isn’t the high mark of his game we know Williams has a trump card trait. He has cleared 72% in contested catch rate in all four seasons sampled for Reception Perception. His 80% mark from 2021 tied for the second-best of his career. Interestingly enough, his 23.1% contested target rate was the lowest of those four seasons and speaks to this new role. He was not just being assigned low-percentage deep shots in tight coverage like he was under the last staff. 

Mike Williams might not be a true No. 1 receiver but he’s a valuable starter for the Chargers. Reception Perception has shown for years that he can do more than just run nine routes and win contested catches. It’s great to see his deployment finally expand.

For more Reception Perception, sign up here... And tell Matt we sent you!

✂️ 32 NFL veterans who could be cut. ESPN has the list. The Chargers one certainly makes Spiller more interesting.

🚑 There are two Baker Mayfields. An injured Baker and a healthy Baker. 

🤝 The WR off to a good start with Patrick Mahomes. Lots of KC pass catchers vying for his attention this year, but do we have a clubhouse leader after Kelce?

💉 What do we think about Aaron Rodgers' new tattoo? We attempted to decode it.

🐃 How will the Bills backfield shakeout? We're getting some clues.

In this series, our contributors will disclose their favorite players and tell us why they can't stop drafting them. Today, Cooterdoodle disclosing her love for Justin Herbert...

My Guy: Justin Herbert

Underdog Fantasy ADP: 45 (QB3)

Why:  Herbert is about to enter his third season as an NFL starting quarterback, but his stats have resembled that of a Top 5 quarterback since he first took the field. Since joining the league in 2020, Herbert has been playing on par with guys like Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes with less experience under his belt.

Growing pains? Sophomore slump? Justin’s never heard of those. In fact, Herbert finished Top 10 in TDs (31) and 6th in passing yards (4,336) during his rookie season, ahead of guys like Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray. In his sophomore season, Herbert one-upped himself by finishing 3rd in passing touchdowns (38) and 2nd in passing yards (5,014).

Not only is he good at playing football, but he loves the game so much that he equates his job to that of a vacation. Herbert loves the game and all of the preparation that comes with it. If you are wondering whether or not Herbert can sustain his production, his division is arguably one of the most stacked at quarterback. The Chargers will have to continue to put points on the board in 2022, and Herbert knows how to get the ball in the endzone.

With an ADP of 44, you can draft Herbert at the end of the 4th, behind both Allen, who put up similar production last year. Draft Herbert and thank me later.

Disclosure: Cooterdoodle has Justin Herbert rostered in more leagues than she is willing to admit in writing. Not only is she confident in his skills on the field, but also off the field, as he is the type of guy to always return his grocery store carts. That is leadership material. 

The season is fast approaching, which means it is time for us to get to know all of these NFL teams and who we should be drafting and fading after a busy offseason. In today's team preview, Fantasy Life's Community Lead & dynasty guru, Sam Wallace, previews the Los Angeles Chargers.

The Chargers finished their first season under Brandon Staley with a 9-8 record (3rd in the AFC West). Staley quickly made himself known as an aggressive play caller who wasn’t afraid to go for it on fourth down. The Chargers were 5th in scoring (almost 28 points/game), but 29th in scoring defense. Five of their losses were by one score and they dropped both of their overtime contests.

Courtesy of BetMGM, they are +250 to win their division which puts them behind the Chiefs (+150). Despite playing in the toughest division, there is a reason for optimism. Justin Herbert is entering Year 3 on the back of two of the most dominant seasons to begin a career. Last season, he threw for over 5,000 yards and also topped 30 TDs for the second straight year.

⚙️ Offseason changes

• Signed WR Mike Williams to a three-year/$60 million contract
• Signed TE Gerald Everett to a two-year/$12 million contract
• Drafted RB Isaiah Spiller in Round 4 of the NFL Draft

✨ Team vibes

The Chargers are as potent on offense as any team in the league, and they’ll need every ounce of it if they want to make it through the gauntlet of the AFC West. Herbert will face Patrick Mahomes & Russell Wilson a total of four times. Plus, a pair of games against Derek Carr/Davante Adams/Darren Waller won’t be a walk in the park either.

Williams secured the bag this offseason, but is being priced at his ceiling. After four years of nominal production, he ended last season as the WR12. Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler will remain the key cogs of the Chargers’ offensive machine while Williams should sprinkle in some spike weeks. While you should draft Williams with caution, a four-way stack of the players listed below could be a fun way to build your best ball draft.

🎯Draft targets

• Justin Herbert (ADP 44.2 / QB2)
• Austin Ekeler (ADP 6.3 / RB3)
• Keenan Allen (ADP 27.5 / WR12)
• Gerald Everett (ADP 158.0 / TE18)

👋Draft fades

• Mike Williams (ADP 28.4 / WR13)- (Editors note: Sam hasn't read the first part of the newsletter yet)

baker mayfield, matt corral and sam darnold play bubble gum bubble gum in a dish before each game and whoever wins gets to start that week

— Linda™ (@Lindellions)
Jul 6, 2022

Sam Darnit

— Fantasy Life (@MBFantasyLife)
Jul 6, 2022