Commanders vs. Bears. First team to 10 points wins...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Jambys:
- Introducing the Cardinals new starting RB
- JMToWin's Week 6 DFS Tips
- A star WR continues to miss practice
- Geoff's bets: More Moore
- Matthew's Love/Hate for Week 6
- Linda's Kicking It: Top kicker plays
- It's 10/14. Take it away, Peter Overzet
It's been a chaotic year at the RB position and it doesn't seem to be slowing down anytime soon.
After not practicing yesterday with a ribs injury, Cardinals RB James Conner is currently listed as doubtful for Sunday's game with the Seahawks and could potentially miss more time, per league sources. Additionally, backup RB Darrel Williams has already been ruled out with a knee injury.
You see where I'm going with this, right? You feel that crisp in the air?
🚨 That's because it's Eno Benjamin szn.
Benjamin immediately enters the RB1 conversation in this juicy matchup vs. the Seahawks with essentially zero competition for touches (the team recently added Corey Clement and Ty'Son Williams to the practice squad).
Benjamin has flashed this year behind Conner (at least 45 yards from scrimmage in 4 of 5 games), and Dwain noted in his Utilization Report that he is above the league average in missed tackles forced (0.27) and yards after contact (3.13).
When Rotoviz's Shawn Siegele slotted Benjamin at No. 13 on his annual Zero RB countdown list, he compared his physical profile to Aaron Jones:
Benjamin also earned rave reviews this offseason from both Kliff Kingsbury and his teammates.
I think a guy to look for is Eno Benjamin. He looked great in minicamp. He’s probably been our best outside zone running back that we’ve had on the roster, even last year... He’s gone night and day from last year to this year, so I think he’s going to have a big jump.
A lot of times when we get backup RBs stepping into a starting role, the volume is the only reason for excitement. But with Benjamin's athletic profile and impressive efficiency in 2022, there is legit upside here.
Hopefully that's a sufficient amount of Benjamin propaganda for your Friday morning...
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JMToWin is a founder/developer of One Week Season, where we focus not only on preparing you for each unique slate but also on teaching you the strategies and theories behind winning DFS play. Our team has millions of dollars in net DFS profit, and each week we strive to build the OWS Fam into a leaderboard-crashing unit. Become a part of the OWS Fam with OWS Free!
🧵 She could tie herself into knots.
Simple decisions could be labored over for hours, with pros and cons covered three or four times over, and "final decisions" never final until the critical moment had passed (at which point, naturally, the second-guessing began).
She wasn't a DFS player — but she may as well have been. She would have fit right in.
"Take the win," I wanted to tell her. "You'll never know what 'the perfect decision' is (if such a thing even exists), but you can nearly always tell the good decisions from the bad decisions — the right paths from the wrong ones.
Pick a 'right path,' and pick another 'right path' from there, and watch these small wins add up over time."
Too often, we see DFS players labor for hours over decisions between two options that are both, very clearly, good options. This type of thinking implies that DFS is a game of "picking players" — a game of "doing a better job than the competition of predicting exactly what's going to happen."
Pro tip: that isn't what DFS is about. Not even remotely.
Could you have "predicted" that Gabe Davis would notch 171 yards and two scores on only six targets and three receptions!? Of course not!
But you could have predicted that Gabe Davis at low ownership against a banged-up secondary would be "+EV" (positive expected value — i.e., "if we could play out this slate a hundred times, this decision would make you money over that sample size").
🤔 And that's what DFS is all about.
Don't waste time trying to make the perfect decision between two good options. Instead, identify the good (+EV) options, and learn how to put these +EV options onto +EV rosters. Keep doing that, and the results will inevitably follow.
With that, here are three "+EV options" to consider on the Week 6 slate.
Any discussion around this slate should start with the rematch between the Bills and Chiefs (36-42 in that legendary playoff game in January), but what if we're looking for spots outside the obvious? — spots that might go a bit overlooked, and might therefore make us more money over time?
1. Most of our sharpest competition uses Vegas lines as a key indicator of where they should look for players; but this week, we have an interesting setup in that the Seahawks enter this week with the number one offense in the NFL(!) by Football Outsiders' DVOA, and they are playing at home against an Arizona defense that ranks 26th in DVOA.
Somehow, however, the Cardinals (facing Seattle's #31 defense…but ranked only 23rd on offense themselves) are favored by three points, with a much higher Vegas-implied team total. Seattle could go overlooked, and they have shown us they have plenty of upside if everything clicks.
2. The Browns have scored 26 to 30 points in four of their five games and rank sixth in points per game. This week, they are playing a Patriots defense that looks scary after shutting out the previous "highest-scoring team in the league" at home. But this game is in Cleveland, and the Patriots — while strong against the pass — rank 28th in DVOA against the run. The Browns? Yup — they rank first in the NFL in rush offense DVOA.
3. The Ravens (fourth in the NFL in points per game) are taking on a surprising 4-1 Giants team with a Wink Martindale defense that is performing above expectations. The catch? The Giants' five opponents on the year rank 22nd to 27th in points per game. The Ravens scored 38 against the Dolphins and 37 against the Patriots, and certainly have that type of output within their range in this one.
Which should you choose to build around?
Any of them!
Or choose BUF/KC (and if ownership projections are coming in high on these players, hunt for ways to be unique in the way you build around that game or in what you do in other places on your roster).
Don't waste time and brainpower trying to make "the perfect choice" between good options.
Take the win — and know that constant "wins" will work out in your favor over time.
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🚑 Uh oh, this star WR keeps missing practice. We need to keep tabs on this.
🚀 The best RB in football is set to return. Thank goodness.
🔒 Mike Evans is locked in. The vibes are back in Tampa Bay, and Evans is ready to blow up.
👀 Blink twice if you're being held hostage, Jeff Wilson Jr. Are you okay?
🥵️ Why isn't this game on Sunday Night Football?! Marcas & Dwain break down the best game of the season on the Fantasy Life Podcast!
🌋 Rhamondre is about to erupt. Find out what makes his matchup against the Browns so juicy.
🐕 We should have known this rookie was gonna explode. He's got that dog in him.
🏓 An update on the Dolphins ping pong saga. Tyreek Hill fires back.
🍒 Dak Prescott said what?? Excuse me.
In between placing waiver claims and setting our lineups, we do a little sports betting around here. Today Geoff is here to give you his best bets of the week. All odds from our friends at BetMGM.
The best cover team in the league this year isn’t Buffalo, Kansas City or Philadelphia.
It’s the Falcons who enter Week 6 5-0 ATS.
This week they’re at home against a San Francisco squad who will be traveling east and playing their third road game in four weeks (all of which have been held outside of their regular PST time zone). Atlanta should have Kyle Pitts back and was able to hold Tampa Bay to 3.0 yards per carry on the ground last week. The Falcons have talent at all the skill positions on offense and a resilient rushing QB, which has made them a hard team to put away. Keep riding the dirty birds who are legit upset candidates once again.
💸Rondale Moore over 44.5 receiving yards -115
Moore played a season high 91% of the snaps last week in his second game back after dealing with injuries early on in 2022. With Christain Kirk gone, he should continue to run a ton of routes from the slot – even when DeAndre Hopkins comes back – and will face off against a Seattle defense that ranks last in yards per play allowed and total yards allowed on the season. This total still projects too low on Moore, who sported an 84% conversion rate on his targets from Kyler Murray last year.
💸 Top 3 ATS (Against the Spread)
- Falcons +5.5
- Cardinals -2.5
- Steelers +8.5
Find out who Matthew is on this week in fantasy! Love/Hate is on NBC Sports Edge, and it's FREE!
It’s #LOVEHATE day! Week 5 is now posted along with the 7 Habits of Highly Effective Traders. As always - it’s free.
— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR)
Oct 13, 2022
Picking kickers can be a pain, but relax, we have our resident kicking expert Linda to help you make the right choice.
Normally, I’d start with some kind of intro, but we’ve got too much to get to, so let’s just dive in.
🦵️ Brett Maher (Linda's Rank: K15)
Maher finds himself in the same position Younghoe Koo did last week. He’s on a team that’s kicking the second-most field goal attempts per game, but he’s facing an Eagles defense that’s allowing the least field goal attempts to opposing kickers. Philadelphia hasn’t allowed more than five points to the kicker position through Week 5.
Maher has put up double-digit performances four weeks in a row. Dallas has one of the lowest implied point totals of the week at 18.25. Actually, as I wrote this, I went from “temper expectations” to “fade at all costs.”
🦵️ Injury Roundup
Matt Prater has already been ruled out for Week 6, so it will be Matt Ammendola once again this week for the Cardinals. Ammendola should see an opportunity as long as HC Kliff Kingsbury really does trust him to split the uprights.
Dustin Hopkins remains day-to-day after missing the Week 5 game. If he can’t go, it’ll be former USFL kicker Taylor Bertolet again, who went 3-for-3 last week in his Chargers debut.
Jake Elliott was a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice with a right ankle injury. NFC Special Teams Player of the Week, Cameron Dicker would fill in for Elliott if he’s not ready on Sunday.
Harrison Butker was back at practice on Wednesday, just in time for the Chiefs to play the Bills. Butker is rostered in less than 50% of Yahoo! leagues and is an automatic start week in and week out.
You can find my Week 6 kicker rankings at FantasyLife.com.
