Dan Campbell and Pete Carroll walk into a bar...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter by Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio:
- The Lions dump Swift to the Eagles
- OverReaction Monday: The rich get richer
- The best moment of the draft
- Futures Bets: Hello, Packers...
- It's 5/1. Take it away, Peter Overzet...
It wasn’t a bombshell trade involving Kyle Pitts or DeAndre Hopkins, but the 2023 NFL Draft did deliver us one big transaction over the weekend that shook up the fantasy landscape…
Fresh off the shocking selection of Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th overall pick, the Detroit Lions finally moved on from D’Andre Swift, just three short, injury-riddled years after selecting him 35th overall in the 2020 draft.
Aside from the bizarre (re: egregious) use of draft capital by the Lions, it’s especially perplexing that they replaced Swift with another undersized back (5’9, 199 pounds) who they are unlikely to saddle up with a heavy workload. They didn’t give David Montgomery an $18 million dollar contract in free agency to hold a Microsoft Surface tablet on the sideline.
But this is a forward-thinking fantasy newsletter, so let’s set our sights on Swift’s future fantasy value in 2023.
📈 Fantasy Fallout...
The knee-jerk reaction to a move like this is to worry about a crowded backfield in Philadelphia that has a “frustrating committee” and "rotation" written all over it.
But this isn’t just any random offense we are talking about, this is the best offense in football and we should be excited about the uncertainty of the situation providing us with an exploitable opportunity in fantasy drafts.
In the same way drafters wrongly discounted Kenneth Walker and Rashaad Penny in 2022 drafts (they were both regularly available in the double-digit rounds) because of both committee and injury concerns, I believe both Swift and Penny (heck, even Kenneth Gainwell, too) will likely go underdrafted relative to their potential ceiling outcomes.
Whether it’s because one of the backs earns a bigger role or an injury strikes — neither are the picture of health — the potential payoff in this backfield is so massive that I will be approaching drafts with a “minimum of one Eagles RB” mentality for as long as their current ADPs hold.
In my first two Best Ball Mania IV drafts on Sunday, Swift went in the seventh round and Penny went in the ninth. Those are very nice prices for two-backs with league-winning potential.
Don’t get bogged down trying to project the touch split. Instead, enjoy the discount while getting exposure to the most explosive offense in football.
We're humans who play fantasy football, which means we are prone to overreact. Today, Kendall reacts to the rich getting richer...
🦅 The Philadelphia Bulldogs have arrived
The NFL Draft wrapped up over the weekend and one thing is clear, Eagles general manager Howie Roseman is playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers. SERIOUSLY, he can’t keep getting away with this!
Before the draft, Philadelphia locked in their franchise quarterback Jalen Hurts with a five-year, $255 million contract extension, which, at the time, made him the highest-paid player in NFL history.
Now the Eagles are making sure their potential Super Bowl return ends with hoisting the Lombardi Trophy and that was clear in this year’s draft.
Here’s the theme of Roseman’s draft: if you’re a Georgia Bulldog, chances are you will be drafted by the Eagles. On Thursday, Philadelphia selected defensive tackle Jalen Carter and edge rusher Nolan Smith in the first round, then took cornerback Kelee Ringo in the fourth round on Saturday. According to ESPN Stats & Info, it marks the first time in the common draft era that the Eagles have selected three players from a single school.
Oh you thought they were done? NOPE.
The Eagles also traded for Lions running back D’Andre Swift, who unsurprisingly went to Georgia, in exchange for a 2025 fourth-rounder. Swift has rushed for 1,680 yards and 18 touchdowns combined over the past three seasons.
I love this offense. Good luck keeping this Philadelphia Eagles team out of the Super Bowl. They’re currently +750 to win it all, right behind the Kansas City Chiefs who sit at +650.
Just remember, it’s Howie’s world and we’re just living in it.
😎 A sneaky RB who emerged from the draft unscathed. He ain’t hiding, though.
🤝 An update on the Saquon Barkley contract talks. Could a deal get done?
💼 Will Austin Ekeler get traded? This should answer that question.
☎️ The best moment of the draft. Very cool audio.
🔮 Projected draft capital for 2024. Hello Arizona.
📅 The NFL schedule release has a date. Well, a target date at least.
💔 Awful news out of Tampa. Hug your kids today.
🎯 What Rookies Should You Target?!
Even Fantasy Football experts lean on Matt Waldman to help do the dirty work...
Now that you know where the rookies will play, how do they grade out as Fantasy Football targets?!
- How high is too high on Anthony Richardson?! Ask Matt Waldman
- How does Zach Charbonnet fit alongside Kenneth Walker?! Ask Matt Waldman
- How does anyone have time to research all of this?! You know who to ask...
With Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio, you can sit back and relax while he does the dirty work for you
Matt's all-in-one Rookie Scouting Portfolio includes his Post-Draft Updates, launching THIS WEEK, plus:
- Tiered cheatsheet of over 250 prospects
- Sweet-spot value of his post-draft ranks vs ADP of over a dozen leagues
- Depth chart analysis
Take advantage of the most comprehensive rookie analysis in the industry for the mere price of a few cups of coffee because let's face it, looking like a genius to your league-mates is worth far more than $21.95.
Early odds are already available for the 2023 season, so it's time to revisit the betting markets after the NFL Draft and see what value is to be had in the futures markets. Take it away, Geoff...
🔮 Green Bay to win the NFC North +500
The NFC North should be fun in 2023. Justin Fields, Justin Jefferson and Dan Campbell’s ability to raise his team through knee-biting imagery make this one of the most compelling divisions in football.
While the Bears are likely to take a step up, it’s a big ask for them to move from the worst team in the NFL to division leader. The Vikings and Lions will have tougher schedules and are still facing major question marks on the defensive side of the ball.
Enter the Packers.
Green Bay no longer has Aaron Rodgers, sure, but they’ll still be sporting a young roster with athletes at nearly every position.
Jaire Alexander and Rasul Douglas were one of the top-ranked corner duos in the league in 2022, while Aaron Jones finished as the sixth-highest-graded RB on PFF. WR Christian Watson gave off clear stud vibes in his rookie campaign, ranking second in contested-catch rate and fourth in yards-after-the-catch per reception.
The questions surrounding Jordan Love always hint at his downside but forget that he was a first-round draft pick in one of the deepest QB pools in history.
Love has the luxury that the other QBs in his division don’t — a veteran head coach with a winning track record.
Under Matt LaFleur, the Packers have gone 47-19-0 with a .712 win rate while being crowned division champ three times in four years. Even in a down season, Green Bay managed to grind out eight wins in 2022 and were a win away from making the postseason.
Veteran coaches like LaFleur with winning records are a rare breed and his presence — along with Green Bay’s potential – isn’t being reflected in the market right now with the Packers (+500) having the worst odds to win the division. It’s a good time to jump on Green Bay who have too solid a roster and coaching staff to be available at this price.
🔮 Other early season odds to ponder early...
🏈 Daniel Jones MVP, 50-1
Jones set career bests in INT rate and completion percentage in 2022. His target tree gets a talent upgrade with Darren Waller and Parris Campbell at TE and WR, respectively. He could theoretically push to double his TD total from last year.
🏌️ Matt LaFleur: Coach of the Year, 30-1
Think of the accolades if he delivers another division win. This is another way to play the upside of the talented Green Bay roster.
🐎 Anthony Richardson: Rookie of the Year, 10-1
RB Bijan Robinson is the favorite but QBs have won the award in six of the last 13 seasons. Richardson leading all QBs in rushing yards is a legit possibility.
