😡 This RB Vows To Run VIOLENTLY

by Peter Overzet

1 year ago

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In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by the new Fantasy Life website:

Deciphering the Javonte Williams situation
OverReaction Monday: Let’s go shopping for bargains
DeAndre Hopkins starts a bidding war
Rookie of the Year Betting: A QB offers value
It's 7/10. Take it away, Peter Overzet...

When we last checked in on Broncos RB Javonte Williams, who suffered a torn ACL in Week 4 last season, it was nearly two months ago.

He was going in the 7th and 8th rounds of drafts, and head coach Sean Payton had given a bullish update on Williams being ready for training camp.

Since then, his ADP has dropped another full round despite no other updates, positive or negative:

Over the weekend, Javonte was once again asked if he’d be ready for the start of training camp. His full response was pretty interesting:

This interview with Javonte follows the classic formula for a player returning from injury:

Player is incredibly optimistic (plans to be ready for Week 1, ready to run “violently”)

Player simultaneously hints at uncertainty relative to the team’s decision-making (“It's just all about the evaluation, how the Broncos feel about it…it’s up to the Broncos")

❓So what’s the move

I agree with Ian that this isn’t much of an “update” as far as actionable news, but it is encouraging that his rehab remains on track.

Dr. Jeff Mueller called it a “great step” and that he’s likely ahead of the timeline J.K. Dobbins (a popular comp for Javonte’s 2023 prospects) was on last year at this time.

Both Williams and Samaje Perine (who the team signed in Free Agency) remain buys at their current price, similar to the dynamic I described with the Seahawks RBs last week.

I currently have 13% Williams and 11% Perine in Best Ball Mania IV, which is overweight the field average (roughly 8%).

Perine should get off to a fast start as the team eases Williams in and will also maintain standalone value even when he does.

Williams offers us something tantalizing in large field tournaments—late-season, bellcow upside at discounted prices.

I love drafting Williams on teams where I’ve locked up a couple of early RBs, as I did in this draft:

Perine fits perfectly on true Zero RB builds where you want to bank some early production at the position, which is exactly what I did in a recent high-stakes draft where I took Perine as my RB3.

I know it’s hard to wrap our heads around multiple backs from the same offense both being values at current prices, but the uncertainty provides us with the opportunity to make asymmetric, league-winning bets because the market is confused by the situation and/or is worried about a committee.

We know Sean Payton is willing to heavily utilize two RBs and they specifically brought Perine in to buttress the backfield. We also know Williams is an immensely talented back who possesses elite, bellcow-level tools.

You don’t need to guess which of Williams or Perine is going to be “the guy” at these prices. We simply need to select both as part of a balanced portfolio knowing one, if not both, is likely to destroy their ADP.

Violently destroy, I should say…

We're humans who play fantasy football, which means we are prone to overreact. Today, Kendall reacts to bargain bin prices in drafts. FIND THAT DEAL:

There are a lot of things that bring us happiness in this world, but there might be nothing more rewarding than finding the perfect deal on something you have been eyeing for a long time. THE SAME GOES FOR YOUR BEST BALL STACKS.

Come on, you can’t tell me that when your much-needed quarterback or wide receiver falls past their ADP and lands in your lap that you don’t want to just do a little dance. QBs are going earlier than ever on Underdog, and even though the prices have come down lately, the top eight are still going 16.3 spots ahead of 2022 on average. Oh yeah and wide receivers? The same thing is happening.

So, if you’re looking for some deals when you’re drafting best ball teams this summer, keep these names in mind…

🛒 Geno Smith (Underdog ADP: 114)

Yes, I am taking my Seahawks bias out of the equation here. Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith didn’t write back in 2022 and finished as the fantasy QB5, averaging 17.9 fantasy points per game. But his incredible season last year seems to still leave drafters spooked — could it have just been a fluke? Smith led the league in completion percentage, finished fourth in passing touchdowns, and eighth in passing yards.

The Seahawks also ADDED weapons for Smith, with a new trio of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba that could be dangerous in 2023. It’s somewhat understandable to think Smith will have trouble repeating, but being drafted in the 10th round is a steal, and you should take advantage.

🛒 Quentin Johnston (ADP: 80)

This Los Angeles Chargers team is going to be competitive yet again after securing running back Austin Ekeler, bringing over new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and drafting wide receiver Quentin Johnston. The newest addition to the WR room is someone I have been targeting a lot in drafts because of the value and upside he offers in round 7.

Mike Williams isn’t a high-end target earner so we could see Johnston take over the No. 2 role during the season. Johnston will also benefit from Moore’s arrival — the Chargers had the lowest average depth of target last season at 6.9, and the Dallas Cowboys (his old squad) had an above-average 8.7 mark, per PFF.

Bonus: He’s somewhat expensive with an ADP of 54, but I love drafting Justin Herbert this season and have been stacking him with Johnston when I can’t get Ekeler or Keenan Allen.

🛒 D’Andre Swift (ADP: 78)

I know this is a tough sell for some people, but D’Andre Swift is one running back I love to roster, per the Fantasy Life Best Ball Hub. There’s an array of outcomes that could come from Swift in 2023, but most importantly there is RB1 upside.

Swift’s 16.4 points per game gives drafters something the WRs don’t have in their realistic range of outcomes.

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💸 An update on DeAndre Hopkins. He’s trying to start a bidding war. Is another team back in the mix??

❓️ Is Miles Sanders back to being a three-down back with the Panthers? It’s the question we’re all trying to figure out.

🤝 A star QB was almost traded this offseason. This would have been interesting.

🏆 It’s time to bet on the Super Bowl Champs. Matthew Freedman (!!) has your answer key.

📈 The offense that will be more dangerous in 2023. I’m giddy.

🧀 Don’t sleep on the Packers this year. Lots of interesting breadcrumbs out there…

💰️ The coaches you want to bet on. Hello, NYG…

The NFL season is quickly approaching, so it is time to lock in some future bets and enjoy the season. Today, the NEWEST member of the Fantasy Life betting team, Matt McCuen, takes a look at the rookie of the year market…

One of my favorite markets when it comes to futures betting is the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. I have personally enjoyed success in this market in recent years, and I've found the perfect candidate for us to throw some money on for 2023.

Previous Rookie of the Year winners

2022: Garrett Wilson WR (New York Jets)
2021: Ja'Marr Chase WR (Cincinnati Bengals)
2020: Justin Herbert QB (Los Angeles Chargers)
2019: Kyler Murray QB (Arizona Cardinals)
2018: Saquon Barkley RB ( New York Giants)

As you can see, this award has been diverse from a positional standpoint over the past five seasons.

Top 5 Odds for Rookie of the Year

As you can see, this year's class has loads of talent. Robinson, the man with the best odds, is slated to start as the Falcons' RB1. The three who follow are the top three QBs in this year's NFL draft.

The most significant question mark with Young, Richardson, and Stroud is who will see the most playing time in Year 1. Certainly, all three are the best quarterbacks on their respective teams. This all comes down to how the organization wants to handle the situation.

Pick: Anthony Richardson (+700)

We will be backing the former Florida Gator standout to walk home with some hardware at the end of the season. In my eyes, Richardson is in the best position of any quarterback entering the league.

Richardson is the most NFL-ready prospect and will thrive in Shane Steichen's offense. The reports coming out of Indianapolis have been extremely positive regarding his progress.

When asked about the starting situation, head coach Shane Steichen said the only way for Richardson to get better would be for him to see playing time early this season.

Veteran signal-caller Gardner Minshew may be under center on opening week, but this will not last long. The worst-case scenario that I see when it comes to playing time is if Minshew plays the first week or two, and then the Colts hand the keys to Richardson.

This is not a playoff-caliber roster, so they would be wasting a season of development for Richardson if they hold him back.

Richardson was regarded as one of the most athletic quarterbacks of all-time entering the draft. He set a combine record in the spring when he posted a 40.5 vertical jump and ran a 4.44 40-yard dash – the third-fastest for a QB in NFL history.

Among all rookies, Richardson has the most upside in year one, and at this price, we are getting tremendous value.

Peter Overzet