And just like that, he kicked off the Betting Life newsletter with a reference to a show he had never seen before…
In today’s Betting Life Newsletter presented by Unabated:
- Three MVP KINGS
- How to participate optimally in picks contests
- QUICK HITTER: Are you tailing or fading this bet?!
- Overlay ALERT!
- TNF … it’s finally HERE!
- It’s 9/7. Take it away, Matthew Freedman…
Welcome to the first edition of the Betting Life Newsletter, the newest part of the Fantasy Life Family.
We will deliver three action-packed newsletters to your inbox weekly - Sundays, Mondays, and Thursdays. You can expect all of the latest betting trends, edges, bad beats (hopefully not ours!), and everything in between to get you prepared for the NFL betting slates.
Without further ado, the regular season starts tonight, which means that the time to place all your preseason bets is winding down.
Naturally, we have a LARGE number of wagers on all sorts of futures and awards markets as well as season-long player props in our 100% FREE bet tracker.
People tend to gravitate toward the MVP market, so let’s run through the three MVP bets I’ve posted in the tracker (listed longest to shortest odds, for the sake of DRAMA).
💅 Brock Purdy +5000 (DraftKings)
Purdy recently brought up the rear at No. 32 in the Ringer’s QB rankings, so it’s not as if he’s a widely respected player — but what he did last year was impressive. Minus the NFC Championship, when he was injured on the first drive, he was 7-0 last year (including playoffs) as a seventh-round third-string rookie thrust into the starting role in Week 14.
In his seven full games — from Week 14 to the Divisional Round — Purdy was No. 1 among all QBs in composite expected points added and completion percentage over expected (EPA + CPOE, per RBs Don’t Matter).
Applied to the regular season, Purdy’s seven-game mark would’ve been No. 2, behind only Patrick Mahomes. (As I highlight when talking about our next player — what a tease, right? — Composite EPA + CPOE has been HIGHLY correlated to MVP success over the past decade.)
With their soft schedule (I have it ranked No. 3 overall), the 49ers could win 13-plus games and earn the No. 1 seed. If that happens, Purdy’s odds will be much shorter than +5000.
🐬 Tua Tagovailoa +2200 (Caesars)
If you look at the past 10 MVP winners — all of them QBs — you’ll see that unless a guy has paradigm-shifting rushing ability like Cam Newton (2015) or Lamar Jackson (2019), he needs to be elite in two specific nerdy efficiency metrics.
The first is the aforementioned composite EPA + CPOE. The second is adjusted yards per pass attempt (AY/A, which was introduced by Bob Carroll, Pete Palmer, and John Thorn in the 1988 classic The Hidden Game of Football).
Last year, Mahomes was No. 1 in EPA + CPOE and No. 2 in AY/A. The same with Aaron Rodgers in 2021. If a guy is at the top in these metrics, he has a strong chance to win MVP.
Last year, Tua was No. 2 in EPA + CPOE and No. 1 in AY/A. We’ve already seen Tua have an MVP-caliber season.
🦅 Jalen Hurts +1200 (FanDuel)
After Week 15 last year, Jalen Hurts was a -150 frontrunner in the MVP race — and then his odds plummeted once news of his shoulder injury hit the market. Hurts missed Weeks 16-17, and Mahomes easily won the award with 48 of 50 first-place votes.
Now, Hurts enters 2023 as the No. 4 option behind Mahomes and QBs Joe Burrow and Josh Allen in the MVP market. That doesn’t make sense to me, given that Hurts has an easier path to double-digit wins in the NFC and has improved every year of his career.
With +1200 odds, Hurts has a 7.69% implied probability of winning MVP. Given his talent and circumstances, I think his true odds are around 10%.
Season-long pick ’em contests can be some of the most fun and engaging ways to bet on the NFL. That said, there are common misconceptions around strategy and a number of things to keep in mind when playing these types of contests. Today, our friend Captain Jack Andrews from Unabated is here to break it down…
Few wagers in a sportsbook give you the value that season-long NFL contests can give you. They appeal to public bettors as well as sharp bettors.
The premise is simple: Pick a certain amount of games each week against the spread, and whoever piles up the best record at the end of the season takes home a giant cardboard check. Last year, the Superbook SuperContest Gold champion took home $400,000 for first place. Meanwhile, the Circa Millions winner took home $1,000,000.
But the biggest misnomer in these handicapping contests is they are a test of your handicapping ability. They’re not. They are a test of your tournament strategy ability. If you’ve never approached these contests with a plan, it’s time to learn how to make one.
If you’re going to enter one of these season-long contests at Las Vegas sportsbooks like Circa or Westgate, or you’re entering a similar contest at DraftKings or any other book that offers them, you have to keep four things in mind:
- Participation
- Prize probability
- Process
- Path
🏆 Concept No. 1: Participation
The first key concept is to know all the rules surrounding your participation in the contest. When do your entries need to be placed? How is the scoring determined? What happens if a game is canceled?
My advice is to read all the rules several times over so you fully understand how the contest works. Seriously, study those rules and make sure you understand them.
Louis Pasteur said, “Chance favors the prepared mind.” You should know when contest lines are posted. How are Thursday and Saturday games handled? Do you need to have your entire entry in or just that early game?
Also, be sure you are prepared to play the entire length of the contest. You would be shocked how many people sign up for these contests and then forget to play Week 1, essentially eliminating themselves from the competition.
In fact, I would contend that 10 percent of the entries are dead money due to either failing to get all their selections in or not understanding the rules. This adds value to the entries of everyone who puts in the effort to pay attention.
More Pick’em Contest Strategy from Unabated
📈 Tools To Help You Bet Like The Pros
Becoming a smarter bettor has never been more affordable...
Unabated was created to provide every sports bettor with the tools, data, and analytics to become sharper, more successful bettors. Now until Sunday at 1 p.m. ET, Unabated is offering NEW and EXISTING Unabated subscribers nearly 40% off their Premium Pricing Plan.
The Unabated advantage includes:
- DFS Pick ’em Tool for building Underdog and Prize Picks entries
- Player Props Screen powered by your favorite projections sources
- Use the Unabated Line to find betting edges
- In-game odds, calculators, and trading tools
- NFL Survivor Tool to optimize your path in survivor pools
- Private live streams with Peter Jennings, Captain Jack, and Rufus Peabody
The Unabated Early Bird Special ends this Sunday at 1 p.m., so don’t wait a minute longer if you want to become a smarter, more informed sports bettor!
Get the Unabated Advantage Here
💰 How the pros win at sports betting. It’s not just about picking winners.
🍾 $1.9M in overlay sounds like a lot? There’s an opportunity for value in this against-the-spread contest.
🤌 Sarcasm is the common tongue for us degenerates. Reading this post is like looking in a mirror.
⏰ Fewer plays, fewer drives, less fun? The new clock rules are impacting college football.
🔻 Being without your best defensive player probably impacts your win probability. The first-team All-Pro’s absence will be felt.
💪 Just being honest … I would’ve bet the under. I guess punters are professional athletes too.
🐂 Exploiting the futures markets of two sportsbooks. This team is a good bet to win its division.
The NFL season kicks off TONIGHT with a high-powered matchup between the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs. Matt LaMarca is here to break it all down from a betting angle…
It’s finally here. After OTAs, training camp, and the preseason, the start of the NFL regular season is upon us.
We’re set for a great opening contest, too, with the Lions traveling to Kansas City to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs.
Both teams enter the year with big expectations. The Chiefs are the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl for the third time in the past five years, while the Lions are the favorites in the NFC North.
The Lions haven’t made the postseason in six straight years, and they haven’t won the division since 1993.
Who has the edge in this showdown? Let’s break down all the betting angles for this matchup.
🦁 Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs
- Spread: Chiefs -4.5 (-110, BetMGM)
- Total: 52.5
- Moneylines: Lions +180, Chiefs -225
The big news in this contest revolves around the health of Travis Kelce. The unquestioned top tight end in football suffered a knee injury at Tuesday’s practice, and while there is no structural damage, his status for Thursday night is up in the air.
Kelce is coming off another monster campaign in 2022, racking up 110 catches for 1,338 yards and 12 touchdowns. Those aren’t just the best numbers among tight ends, but they compare favorably with any pass-catcher in the NFL.
Kelce was poised for a big season debut against the Lions. As Geoff Ulrich details in our Game Hub, the Lions were eviscerated by tight ends last season. They allowed the second-most touchdowns to the position, and Kelce makes a living by destroying teams near the end zone.
With Kelce’s status uncertain, the Chiefs’ offense looks much more mortal. He is their clear alpha, with the Chiefs lacking another proven pass-catcher behind him.
The receiving corps is unproven, with Marquez Valdes-Scantling leading a group of young players, including Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, and Rashee Rice. Mahomes is the best quarterback in football, but even he might struggle to produce with those options.
Unfortunately, Kelce’s status isn’t the only issue the Chiefs are facing. Chris Jones continues to hold out in search of a new contract, leaving the Chiefs without their top defender.
Jones was the top interior defensive lineman in all of football last season per Pro Football Focus, racking up 15.5 sacks and 17 TFLs. His absence would arguably be even more significant than Kelce’s since the Chiefs’ defense doesn’t have Mahomes to make up for it.
All of the uncertainty in KC makes the Lions an appealing target.
The line has come down significantly since opening at 7.0, but Detroit has been a fantastic ATS squad under head coach Dan Campbell. They’re 27-19 against the spread since Campbell took over, including 23-15 as an underdog.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have had their struggles when it comes to covering the spread. Despite their elite record since Mahomes took over at QB, they’re just 21-28 ATS with Mahomes under center during the past three regular seasons. As a favorite of at least four points, that figure drops to 14-21.
I already locked this pick in earlier this offseason, but at this point, I would suggest waiting for word on Kelce before locking in Detroit. If he suits up, this number will likely move back in the Chiefs’ favor.
Onto the props, parlays, and more…
