😮 Top Lamar Jackson Trade Destinations

The NFL never sleeps, man…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter:

• Lamar Jackson requested a trade
• 49ers GM John Lynch said some nice things about Brock Purdy
• The WR Rookie Super Model: Jaxon Smith-Njigba is WR1
• Dynasty Rookie Profile: TE Dalton Kincaid
• It’s 3/28. Take it away, Ian Hartitz…

There’s something special about an NFL player eliminating the middleman and simply tweeting whatever is on their mind.

Take Lamar Jackson, who in the last week alone has tweeted:

The Ben Affleck cigarette meme photoshopped with his jersey

The amount of time it personally took him to find a cat in a “Where’s Waldo” sort of game

Breaking news that he requested a trade all the way back on March 2

Apparently, trade requests involving superstar QBs can actually be kept quiet unless, you know, the player in question decides to go on a popular YouTube show and announce his plans to the entire world. Who knew?

Still, Jackson’s announcement doesn’t necessarily alter his current situation: NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport noted that the 2019 league MVP was actively negotiating with the Ravens as recently as last week.

Perhaps the allure of throwing the football to Nelson Agholor is enough to convince Jackson to keep wearing purple in 2023 and beyond, but if not, there should be more than a few NFL teams vying to trade for his services.

Fantasy Life has already broken down whether or not Jackson is worth $45 million per year.

Today’s goal is a bit more simple: Which NFL teams should really attempt to acquire the 26-year-old talent if the Ravens decide to honor his request?

😎 Teams who already have a stud QB

• Buffalo Bills
• Cincinnati Bengals
• Dallas Cowboys
• Jacksonville Jaguars
• Kansas City Chiefs
• Los Angeles Chargers
• Philadelphia Eagles

Only note here: Shame on whoever made a photoshop of Patrick Mahomes handing the ball off to RB Lamar Jackson.

❤️️ Teams fully committed to their QB

• Arizona Cardinals
• Chicago Bears
• Cleveland Browns
• Denver Broncos
• Las Vegas Raiders
• Los Angeles Rams
• New England Patriots
• New Orleans Saints
• New York Giants
• Pittsburgh Steelers
• Seattle Seahawks
• Tennessee Titans

At least these teams already have some level of high-end investment under center, even though in each instance, it’d be a lot cooler if Lamar was that guy, pal.

😆 Teams expected to draft a “Franchise” QB

• Carolina Panthers
• Houston Texans

Lamar Jackson is Lamar Jackson, but a draft pick could be anything! It could even be Lamar Jackson!

👽 Teams expected to participate in a trade for Aaron Rodgers

• Green Bay Packers
• New York Jets

The Jets’ Plan A: Rodgers … and they refuse to explore a Plan B! What could go wrong?

🙃 Teams that could use an upgrade under center

• Detroit Lions
• Miami Dolphins
• Minnesota Vikings
• San Francisco 49ers

I’m partial to the latter destination purely because of the pregame swag possibilities of Lamar teaming up with Deebo Samuel, Trent Williams and that boombox guy.

😏 Teams that should make a move for Jackson

• Atlanta Falcons
• Indianapolis Colts
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Washington Commanders

I don’t want to live in a world where teams willingly go to war with some combination of Desmond Ridder, Taylor Heinicke, Gardner Minshew, Sam Ehlinger, Baker Mayfield, Kyle Trask, Jacoby Brissett and Sam Howell instead of a former MVP in the middle of his prime.

Best of luck to Lamar in finding his future home; for the sake of our own entertainment I hope that he continues to tweet through it during the process.

With the NFL Draft quickly approaching, Dwain McFarland has been hard at work building out the Fantasy Life Rookie Super Model to help us identify the best prospects based on historical collegiate data and expected draft capital. Today, we kick things off with WRs.

💨 Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Ohio State | 6’1”, 196 lbs

• Fantasy Life WR Super Model: 90th percentile (tier 1)
• Underdog ADP: WR29, Round 5
• Rookie ADP: WR1, No. 2 Overall (Per Dynasty League Football)

Smith-Njigba was behind Quentin Johnston and Jordan Addison in February mock drafts but has climbed to No. 1 status in recent weeks.

Technically, Smith-Njigba missed the 30% dominator threshold at 26% in his age-19 season as a sophomore. However, once you factor in his teammates – Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, both first-round picks – he deserves a checkmark in the category. His target competition was as fierce in 2021, and he delivered a team-leading 3.22 receiving yards per team pass attempt.

Smith-Njigba doesn’t have the top-end speed some expect from prospects in the first round of the draft, but he hasn’t had a problem creating chunk plays. Per PFF data, the Ohio State product delivered a 15-plus yard reception on 34% of plays, which ranks in the 92nd percentile since 2017.

He operated primarily out of the slot in college but wasn’t just an underneath option, and recent history tells us playing from the slot shouldn’t be held against high-end options.

When teams tried their luck with press-man looks against Smith-Njigba, things didn’t work out so well – he ranked No. 2 with a 3.64 YPRR out of all Power Five WRs with at least 75 such routes.

While Smith-Njigba isn’t an exact stylistic comp for DeVonta Smith and Jerry Jeudy, the model plots him alongside those two names from an adjusted production and expected draft capital aspect. On film, there are a lot of similarities between how JSN and Amon-Ra St. Brown win.

💯 Quentin Johnston | TCU | 6’3”, 208 lbs

• Fantasy Life WR Super Model: 87th percentile (tier 1)
• Underdog ADP: WR42, Round 7
• Rookie ADP: WR2, No. 4 Overall

Johnston’s expected draft capital has slipped some since his January peak as the No. 1 option on the board, but he is still firmly in the Round 1 conversation as the No. 16 overall option on consensus big boards.

The TCU product offers the prototype size NFL teams love and can operate in the vertical attack. His 15.6 career aDOT is in the 73rd percentile for prospects since 2017. Per PFF Data, Johnston was an absolute MONSTER against press-man coverage, with a juicy 33% TPRR and eye-popping 3.85 YPRR over the last two seasons. No player with at least 75 routes against press man was better in the Power Five.

While many might see him as a contested-catch specialist like Mike Williams, Johnston demonstrated high-end upside as a yards-after-catch option. Collegiate WRs with an aDOT of 14-plus yards average 4.9 yards after the catch since 2014. Johnston almost doubled that with a career average of 8.3 yards. He has deceptive change-of-direction skills – especially on slants and hitch routes where he consistently reverses direction to spin out of tackles.

There are some concerns in the scouting community about Johnston playing smaller than his size. You do see the occasional concentration drops due to body catching. However, his 9% drop rate is in line with the NCAA average since 2014.

Our model likes the Mike Williams comp (88th percentile) and offers up Courtland Sutton as an option on the lower end of the spectrum.

🏈 Jordan Addison | USC | 5’11”, 173 lbs

• Fantasy Life Super Model: 87th percentile (tier 1)
• Underdog ADP: WR44, Round 7
• Rookie ADP: WR3, No. 5 Overall

Addison’s expected draft capital slipped from the low teens to the mid-20s after weighing in at 173 pounds at the combine – which places him in the third percentile since 2011. However, lighter WRs have delivered strong fantasy performances in recent years.

• Marquise Brown 166 lbs
• DeVonta Smith 170 lbs
• Jaylen Waddle 180 lbs

While his weight concerns could create doubts among some fantasy managers and GMs, Addison is a baller. He delivered the best Power Five conference breakout age in the class with a 32% dominator in his age-18 season as a true sophomore at Pitt.

One potential concern for Addison is that an astounding 25% of his targets came behind the line of scrimmage – something that might not be sustainable at the next level. However, he wasn’t just a gadget player, earning a target 28% of the time with a 3.25 YPRR (6th in the Power Five) when he faced press-man looks.

When defenders give him a cushion, he does an excellent job manipulating defensive backs or finding their blind spot to help create separation. He is adept at beating both zone and man coverages from the inside or outside. While he doesn’t have blazing speed and isn’t a strong contested-catch option, given his route-running prowess, including double moves, it hasn’t been an issue – that isn’t how he wins.

Addison reminds me of Diontae Johnson when watching the film, which is also within the range of comps for our model.

THE FULL ROOKIE SUPER MODEL

👀 49ers GM John Lynch spoke on the team’s QB situation. It wasn’t too Purdy for Trey Lance.

💔 Broke: It’s not you, it’s me. Woke: It’s absolutely you. 

😍 3 Rookie WRs that you NEED To draft. Beauty over age? (I guess).

👕 Take my eyes, but not the shirt: Andy Reid is a national treasure.

❓ You’ll never guess who LOVES Lamar Jackson’s Twitter. What a time to be alive.

☕ Rumors of a Washington Commanders sale continue. But what about the team’s coffee situation?

🙋 Could you name all 32 projected starting NFL QBs? Andy Reid might need some help.

🏥 Big season incoming? This WR is in a “great place.”

🎤 Sean Payton praised a Broncos QB. Plot twist: Not the one married to Ciara.

The NFL Draft is fast approaching, so it's time to dig into the 2023 rookie class. Today Jonathan Fuller profiles a prospect tentatively expected to be a top-four TE off the board...

🦾 Dalton Kincaid

Rookie Draft ADP: 24

Underdog ADP: 197

Dalton Kincaid is a pass-catching TE who can be a legitimate downfield weapon in the NFL. He is one of the more athletic and pro-ready prospects when it comes to the passing game. At the same time, he is one of the worst inline blocking TEs in this class which may limit his upside to be an every-down player in the NFL.

He was productive in his final two seasons at Utah and proved to be an elite end zone target, hauling in 16 TDs in his 25 games for the Utes.

2021: 36-510-8, 2.09 yards per route run

2022: 70-890-8, 2.42 yards per route run

Unfortunately, he is still recovering from a back fracture suffered in his final regular season game. As a result, he did not participate in testing at the NFL Combine or at Utah’s Pro Day. There is some concern that this could cause him to fall in the NFL draft. In a loaded TE class, disappointing draft capital could have an outsized impact on his value in fantasy drafts.

📈 Pros

🕺 Smooth Athlete

Like many of the great TEs, basketball was originally Kincaid’s primary sport, and it shows. He has excellent footwork, hands, and body control which allows him to regularly make acrobatic, highlight reel catches.

He is a good route runner with very promising separation skills. He can get in and out of breaks quickly and showed the ability to track deep passes well.

He is also a threat after the catch with the ball in his hands. He has enough speed to make plays in the open field and should be a tough matchup for linebackers to try to stick with.

🧠 Room to develop (despite his age)

Kincaid only played one year of high school football before playing five collegiate seasons at a combination of the University of San Diego and Utah. This relative lack of experience and non-traditional path suggests he may still have room to develop.

He posted a YPRR over 2.0 in both seasons at Utah and his 2.42 mark in 2022 was second best in the nation among TEs with at least 25 targets. That level of efficiency for a player with limited experience is a great sign.

Normally, the fact that he will turn 24 during his rookie season would be a bigger red flag. It still isn’t ideal, but a longer college career is unsurprising with his lack of football background.

Given his natural ability as a pass-catcher, his ceiling could be extremely high if he continues to improve as a football player with the help of NFL coaching.

📉 Cons

👎 Lack of strength/physicality

We’ve already established that Kincaid leaves a lot to be desired as a blocker. He graded out with the 112th-best run-blocking grade from PFF among TEs with at least 100 blocking snaps in 2022.

For fantasy purposes, that might be a good thing as he won’t be asked to stay in and block, but it could also limit his ability to earn an every-down role. Hopefully whichever team drafts him will do so with a specific role in mind for his skill set.

The more concerning issue is if NFL safeties and coverage linebackers will be able to limit Kincaid by knocking him off his routes and getting physical at the catch point.

His contested catch success rate dropped from 78% to 50% from his junior to senior seasons which is a worrying trend and something NFL defenses will use to their advantage if it is truly a weakness in his game.

🏆 Fantasy Impact

Kincaid has a legitimate case for being the top fantasy TE in this draft class. He is currently the best receiver of the group and likely hasn’t hit his ceiling yet. However, he does have some risk factors that make him less of a sure bet to earn significant playing time at the next level.

If he struggles as a receiver early in his career, he won’t have the blocking chops to fall back on to keep himself on the field.

Despite the uncertainty, he should still be treated as one of the top TE prospects in this class unless the NFL shows us they don’t view him that way.

He is currently the TE2 in our Fantasy Life dynasty rookie rankings.

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