Iâve exercised my fifth-year option of eating at Buffalo Wild Wings every TuesdayâŚ
In todayâs Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:
The 49ers WRs, Travis Kelce and Zeke headline a busy NFL Monday
WATERCOOLER: Best Ball Mania V is officially official
Dwain's Rookie Ranks: Best Gus Johnson voice: âMASERATI MARVâ
Itâs 4/30. Take it away, Ian HartitzâŚ
Three transactions shook the fantasy world to its core on Monday afternoon.
Okay, that was a bit extreme for this early in the morning, apologies, but some fantasy-relevant stuff indeed happened yesterday â so letâs talk about it!
đ Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel arenât going anywhere
At least that's the plan according to ESPN's Adam Schefter:
âThe 49ers are still trying to get a deal done with Brandon Aiyuk. They got calls on Deebo and nothing got close to getting done. The plan for them right now is to move forward with both Aiyuk and Deebo.â
This was tentatively expected to be the case after a tradeless NFL Draft weekend, although the decision to use first-round draft capital on Florida WR Ricky Pearsall added some intrigue.
While Brock Purdy and 49ers fans should be thrilled to have the gang back together, non-Christian McCaffrey fantasy managers will once again have to likely deal with less volume than they would prefer.
Good thing all parties involved are quite good at their jobs:
49ers pass-catchers PPR and expected PPR points per game in 2023
Deebo Samuel: 16.2 PPR (WR13), 12.1 expected (WR33)
Brandon Aiyuk: 15.7 PPR (WR15), 11.9 expected (WR36)
George Kittle: 12.7 PPR (TE7), 9.9 expected (TE14)
Speaking of players not going anywhereâŚ
đ° Travis Kelce got a BAG
Relative to most normal human beings, you know. Not his girlfriend.
The two-year deal is worth $34.25 million, includes quite a bit of guaranteed money, and keeps Kelce in Kansas City through 2025. Heâll be 36 by the time that comes around â and even then it doesnât sound like Patrick Mahomes is open to the idea of his longtime No. 1 receiver going anywhere.
Kelceâs newfound status as the NFLâs highest-paid TE is more than deserving for the three-time Super Bowl Champ. Overall, his 295 receptions (No. 8), 3,447 yards (No. 10) and 26 TDs (No. 8) over the past three regular seasons all rank among the leagueâs top pass-catchers regardless of position ⌠and yet, 21 WRs are still slotted to pull in more annually than Kelce per Over The Cap.
As Greg Olsen once said: âWe (tight ends) have to do the same s--- that a $15 million left tackle has to do and run the same routes against the same guy that a $15 million wide receiver has to run routes against, and theyâre going to pay us $7 million.â
At least weâll always have National Tight End Day â and who can put a price on that?
đ¤ Zeke is back in Dallas
On a one-year, $3 million deal. The Cowboysâ No. 3 all-time leading rusher, Ezekiel Elliott is back home after an unmemorable one-year stint in New England that featured career-low marks in the majority of rushing counting numbers and efficiency metrics alike.
While Zeke didnât seem COMPLETELY washed last season (Fun fact: Elliott posted a faster top speed than Tony Pollard!), the former No. 4 overall pick has certainly been on a downward trend as of late:
2018: +0.45 rushing yards over expected per carry (No. 17 among qualified RBs)
2019: +0.4 (No. 12)
2020: +0.03 (No. 32)
2021: -0.19 (No. 31)
2022: -0.34 (No. 43)
2023: -0.39 (No. 43)
Donât expect a workhorse role for the soon-to-be 29-year-old veteran, but Elliott does profile as the most likely goal-line option inside the NFLâs reigning No. 1 ranked scoring offense. Thereâs potential for TD-dependent RB3 usage here, particularly if the Cowboys refrain from making any relevant trades at the position between now and Week 1.
All in, right Jerry? Anyways, did the draft reignite anyone elseâs desire to responsibly place some legal sports wagers?
Claim up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets
đ The Raiders add a former Cowboys WR. Be a lot cooler if they addressed QB next.
đ Best Ball Mania V is LIVE! Great day to be great.
𤣠Some Tom Brady roasters have been revealed. We NEED Belichick.
đ¤ The Patriots just handed out their largest non-TB12 contract EVER. Thatâs a lot of zeroes.
đť Matthew Berryâs rookie ranks are a helluva drug. Bear down!
âď¸ Looking for a one-stop-shop draft grade thread? Joe has you covered with some goodness.
đ Jarvis Landry is looking for a new (football) home. Comeback szn.
Some people spent their April relaxing. Dwain spent it in the laboratory devising his Rookie Super Models in hopes of conquering the fantasy football world.
And now? The man has blessed us with his post-draft rookie ranks. Talk about a Pontiac Game Changing PerformanceâŚ
1ď¸âŁ Marvin Harrison Jr. | Cardinals | WR
Super Model Score: 100th percentile
2024 Outlook: Mid-range WR2 with WR1 upside
Multi-year Outlook: High-end WR1
Harrison, the No. 1 all-time prospect in the Rookie Super Model, stands out with his early breakout at a star-studded program alongside future NFL stars Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. His potential is not limited to a specific area of the field â he has the tools to excel versus zone and man coverage, making him a versatile threat.
The No. 4 overall pick immediately becomes the top dog in the Cardinals' receiving room and will challenge Trey McBride to be the team's target leader in 2024. Playing with a capable NFL QB in Kyler Murray, Harrison projects as a borderline WR1. In a good runout, Harrison reaches similar heights to Justin Jefferson (WR10) and Ja'Marr Chase (WR5) in their rookie campaigns.
Since 2018, six prospects have reached the 80th percentile or better in the Super Model, and they have done extremely well in their first two seasons.
Top-12 Finishes: 20%
Top-24 Finishes: 67%
Top-36 Finishes: 83%
2ď¸âŁ Malik Nabers | Giants | WR
Super Model Score: 92nd percentile
2024 Outlook: Low-end WR2 with high-end WR2 upside
Multi-year Outlook: High-end WR1
Nabers owns the third-highest score in the Super Model, sandwiched between Chase and Jaylen Waddle. While he has yet to demonstrate the same ability to dominate the intermediate range of the field as Harrison, Nabers showed an ability to access targets at all field levels and is the more explosive playmaker. His 30% target rate against man coverage and 25% rate against zone were both WR1-worthy.
Look for the NFL Draftâs No. 6 overall selection to captivate the hearts and minds of the Giants coaching staff and Daniel Jones (editorâs note: Drew Lock) from Day 1. What Nabers gives up landing in a capped passing offense, he could offset with a lack of target competition. There is a world where Nabers accumulates more targets than Harrison in his rookie season.
Nabers grades out in the same range as Harrison, offering the same fantasy hit rates, but an upgrade at QB in Year 2 would be a welcome sight.
4ď¸âŁ Caleb Williams | Bears | QB
2024 Outlook: High-end QB2 with mid-range QB1 upside
Multi-year Outlook: Mid-range QB1
We donât have a Super Model for quarterbacks because I havenât been able to nail down a robust model for the position. However, per our own Ian Hartitz in his scouting report on Williams, he graded out well among 122 Power 5 QBs with 300-plus dropbacks from 2021 to 2023:
Pro Football Focus (PFF) pass grade: 91.4 (No. 5)
Passer rating: 118.3 (No. 3)
Adjusted completion rate: 76% (No. 23)
Yards per attempt: 9.1 (No. 7)
The Bears have been preparing for the arrival of their future signal caller for over a year now. They acquired D.J. Moore in a draft day trade with Carolina in 2023 and then added Keenan Allen, Gerald Everett and pass-catching RB D'Andre Swift in free agency this winter. But that wasn't enough â Chicago added a cherry on top with the selection of Rome Odunze in Round 1. If this passing game clicks in 2024, Williams could challenge for 4,000 yards through the air, something no Bears QB has achieved ⌠ever.
Williams doesnât offer the same ceiling as Jayden Daniels as a rusher, but he could still provide value over many of his NFL peers. The No. 1 overall pick accounted for 13% of designed rushing attempts over his careerâalmost double the NCAA average. Ian found that Williamsâ rushing production looked pretty good when excluding sacks.
2023: 74-356-11 (4.8 YPC)
2022: 94-624-10 (6.6 YPC)
With Brock Bowers landing in a challenging situation in Las Vegas, Williams moves into my top four in single QB leagues. If you are loaded at QB, I recommend trading down if you can still secure one of the three skill players in the group below.
Check out Dwainâs full rookie rankings
Going for a walk used to be cheap.
Then BBMV dropped.
