As perfect as any Sunday can be with only two games of football …
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by Betting Life on YouTube:
- Conference Championships: Bet the No. 1 seeds?
- Unexpected Points: Bills suffer a one-point adjusted loss.
- Fade Clay? Make money …
- Early Lines: Jump on this line before it moves!
- NHL: There are sports other than football.
- It’s 1/22: Take it away, Matthew Freedman …
After a great weekend of football, the AFC and NFC Championship matchups are set: Ravens-Chiefs. 49ers-Lions.
Last week, I highlighted a historically profitable trend in the Thursday Betting Life Newsletter: Going back to 2003, underdogs were 26-13-1 ATS (28.4% ROI, per Action Network) in the Divisional Round against No. 1 seeds.
The Packers easily covered and almost beat the 49ers on Saturday, while the Texans entered halftime tied 10-10 with the Ravens before collapsing.
But that was last week. How have No. 1 seeds done in conference championships?
🏆 No. 1 Seeds
In the AFC and NFC Championships, the No. 1 seed has been the most profitable ATS bet of the past 20 years and one of the most profitable ML bets.
- No. 1 Seed: 16-11 ATS (14.3% ROI) | 21-6 ML (18.7% ROI)
- No. 2 Seed: 11-15 ATS (-16.9% ROI) | 8-18 ML (-46.8% ROI)
- No. 3 Seed: 4-3 ATS (11.6% ROI) | 2-5 ML (-36.9% ROI)
- No. 4 Seed: 4-4 ATS (-1.9% ROI) | 5-3 ML (73.5% ROI)
- No. 5 Seed: 2-3 ATS (-18.6% ROI) | 2-3 ML (35.2% ROI)
- No. 6 Seed: 3-4 ATS (-14.8% ROI) | 2-5 ML (-43.4% ROI)
- No. 7 Seed: NA
Middling seeds have had some ML success over the past two decades, but for the most part, the conference championships have been ruled by the league’s top teams.
And that makes sense: The No. 1 seeds who make it this far have shaken off any Divisional Round rust, and they get a second straight home game. They’re often in peak form and advantageously positioned.
They’re almost always favored, and for good reason.
🏠 Home Favorites
We’re dealing with small samples, but the Divisional Round has historically been the time to be on road dogs.
- ATS: 45-33-1 (11.6% ROI)
- ML: 27-52 (15.5% ROI)
This round, though, home favorites have been the profitable side.
- ATS: 19-15 (8.2% ROI)
- ML: 25-9 (6.5% ROI)
Especially when that home favorite is a No. 1 seed.
- ATS: 14-9 (17.6% ROI)
- ML: 19-4 (19.9% ROI)
🤔 Bet Ravens & 49ers?
Trends are to be reasonably contextualized. They’re not to be unquestioningly followed.
These conference championship trends suggest that the Ravens and 49ers might have some macro market-based edges — but that doesn’t mean you should bet them.
It just means you have more data to consider when deciding who to back on Sunday.
As it happens, I’ve already placed bets on both championship games … and I’m on the No. 1 seeds.
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Kevin Cole is the proprietor of Unexpected Points, and each week he provides his “adjusted scores” for every game based on the underlying production data. Here is an excerpt from his advanced game reviews for the Divisional Round.
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special teams, penalties, fumble luck, etc.).
📊 Adjusted Scores Table
- “Pass”: Pass rate over expectation (based on the context of each play and historical averages)
- “Success”: Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs. actual score
- “H & A”: Home or away team
💪 Bills vs. Chiefs
- Final Score: 24-27
- Adjusted Score: 27-28
The Bills lose another heartbreaker to the Chiefs, this time more of their own doing than the shoutout two years ago in Kansas City. The Bills did have the better offensive success rate, but the Chiefs were the better offense. The Bills relied heavily on lower-upside runs (5.3% pass rate under expectation) and shorter passes. The couple times the Bills tried to throw long, receivers couldn’t make the necessary plays to come down with the ball.
This game goes to show how tough it is to thread the needle with the conservative gameplan for the Bills. Everything went the way they wanted, hitting a 61% success rate running the ball, but it only translated to +0.04 EPA per run. The Bills faced nine more third downs than the Chiefs, needing Josh Allen to continually convert to match the 93rd percentile EPA efficiency of the Chiefs pass-dominant gameplan. The Chiefs themselves only converted 20% of their third downs, but they only faced five of them.
There will be a lot of focus on the missed field goal that could have tied the game at the end, which cost the Bills 3.3 expected points and 31% in win probability. Even so, the Bills were likely not to win the game before the kick, and the Chiefs would have had an estimated 63% win probability getting the ball back with 1:43 remaining.
The biggest, somewhat random play to go against a team was the Chiefs losing a fumble out the back of the end zone (-6.7 EPA). A totally boneheaded play by Mecole Hardman to extend the ball when surrounded at the goal line with a few more opportunities remaining as it was 1st & Goal. The fact that the Chiefs survived that and still went on to win reflects the strength of their offense. The Chiefs were only really stopped once for a fourth-quarter punt. The other times they possessed the ball and did not score was with fewer than 30 seconds left in the half, fumbling out the back of the end zone, and running out the clock.
It was impressive for Allen to get to +0.27 EPA per play with such little upside on so many of his throws. He added 8.0 expected points on rushes and scrambles but had a career-low Air EPA. Allen's propensity to make mistakes reared its head on the Bills’ final drive, but they survived and still got into FG position. It brings more risk, but the Bills should have let Allen turn the ball loose down the field.
Patrick Mahomes saved his best game of the year for his biggest stage so far. Mahomes averaged +0.57 EPA per play, completing 17-of-23 passes (+18.2 over expectation). Despite a modest aDOT of 7.2 yards, Mahomes derived most of his big-value plays through the air.
🏀 Cavaliers +1.0 at Magic (-110, DraftKings)
The Cavs got off to a slow start this season, but they’ve been absolutely rolling of late. They’ve won eight of their past 10 games, and they’re tied for first in the league in Net Rating over that stretch (+14.5 points per 100 possessions).
The Magic are 21st in Net Rating over the same time frame (-5.7), and they’ll be at a rest disadvantage in this spot. They’re on the second leg of a back-to-back, while the Cavs had Sunday off.
💸 The world’s best postseason betting system stays profitable. Seinfeld GIF.
📊 The Conference Championship round is set. Updated Super Bowl odds, analysis, and more.
😬 Mecole Hardman: Two touches, one yard, countless tweets.
🤷 Josh Allen. Savant or the destroyer of worlds? The debate rages on.
❄️ $20 per hour isn’t bad. The lifelong pain and misery are added benefits.
🦁 Lions > Cowboys: From 0-16 to NFC Championship.
🎢 It was over (and then it wasn’t). James Cook's rushing props were a roller coaster on Sunday.
⛳ Three PGA events, three (massive) longshot winners. These odds are wild.
☠️ Baker Mayfield: “It sucks.”
🍺 If you’re not betting openers on Sunday night, are you even alive? Let it never be said that Freedman isn’t a degenerate.
🏆 Super Bowl odds: 49ers No. 1 …
Finding early betting value — and grabbing as much closing line value (CLV) as possible — is one of the easiest ways to become a better bettor. Matt LaMarca dives into his favorite early bet for the Conference Championships.
⛏️ 49ers -6.5 vs. Lions
- Current Spread: 49ers -6.5 (-115, DraftKings)
- Target Range: 49ers -6.5 or better
If you’re looking to bet this game early, there’s really only one play that should be on your radar: 49ers -6.5. It’s only available at DraftKings (at the time of writing), with the rest of the industry at 49ers -7.0.
Seven is a key number in NFL betting, so the downside of locking in the 49ers at 6.5 is pretty minimal. If this number goes to 6.0 or 5.5 — which would surprise me — we’re really not losing a ton of value. However, if this number settles at 7.0 across the industry, having 6.5 in our pocket is excellent.
There are plenty of on-field reasons to support the 49ers as well.
Detroit’s defense has been abysmal for most of the season. Since Week 7 — when the team was thrashed on the road in Baltimore — the Lions rank just 27th in EPA/play defensively. They’re 30th in dropback EPA against, and things haven’t gotten much better during the playoffs. The Rams racked up 425 yards against them in the Wild Card round, with Matthew Stafford contributing 367 with his arm. The Buccaneers also eclipsed the 400-yard threshold, and the Lions were outgained in both contests.
While those teams have good offenses, San Francisco has been the unparalleled top unit in football. They were first in EPA/play by a wide margin, with Brock Purdy leading the league in basically every efficiency metric. With Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle, the team simply has too many playmakers to stop consistently.
The big X-factor here is Samuel. He exited last week’s game early with an injury, and the offense has not been the same without him this season. However, Samuel reportedly told people after the game that he was “ok” and has a shot to play vs. the Lions.
We’re taking some risk by locking in this number early, but losing Deebo wouldn’t completely derail the 49ers offense. They managed to survive without him vs. the Packers, and Green Bay’s defense is better than Detroit’s.
This game will also be played in San Francisco, which is bad news for Jared Goff. Goff has historically thrived indoors — like his home stadium in Detroit — but things haven’t gone nearly as well for him outside. In the cold weather of December and January, he’s just 9-14-1 ATS for his career when playing outdoors. His last outdoor contest was against the Bears in Week 14, and Goff finished with season-worst marks basically across the board (161 yards, 2.6 AY/A). I don’t expect the conditions to be a factor in California, but as last week’s game shows anything is possible.
Ultimately, Detroit has been “lucky” to survive the first two weeks of the playoffs, and this will be their toughest test by a mile. I’m happy to lock in the 49ers at less than a TD.
Welcome to NHL best bets. With the NFL season winding down we’re giving a few other sports their time in the sun and trying to earn some extra units before preseason rolls around again.
Today the NHL has a solid six-game slate with multiple division leaders in play. Geoff Ulrich breaks down the night’s best bets below …
🐻 Bruins Win in Regulation vs. Jets (+135, bet365)
- Play to: +120
Boston enters this game with a 15-3 straight-up (SU) record at home on the season. Over their past three homes (vs the Devils, Avalanche, and Canadiens) they’re 3-0 SU and have outscored their opponents 17-7. Certainly, the 9-4 shellacking they put on Montreal on Saturday is a large part of that +10 goal differential but dominant wins over the Avalanche and Devils also contributed to that record.
The Jets are no pushovers (14-4 SU away) but they have built up a lot of their sterling road record against lackluster Western conference teams like the Sharks, Ducks, and Coyotes. If we take a deeper look, we can see they haven’t had as much success when traveling against Eastern Conference opponents. They’ve already racked up a couple bad losses to weaker teams in road games against Montreal and Chicago and barely squeaked by the lowly Senators (in OT) in Ottawa on Saturday.
The Jets stack up as the slightly superior 5v5 team, but Boston has been playing better at even strength of late and their fourth-ranked power play will likely give the Jets 25th-ranked penalty-kill issues. It’s a small sample and not wholly relevant given how different the Jets roster is this year, but Winnipeg is also 0-3 in their last three trips to Boston, all of which were regulation losses.
With Boston’s skaters shooting with as much confidence as they’ve had all season, and likely eager to avenge a 5-1 loss to Winnipeg (in Winnipeg) earlier in the year, it feels like a solid time to take the +135 odds on offer for the Bruins to grab a win in regulation this Monday.
🍁 Canucks -1.5 vs. Blackhawks (-160, bet365)
- Play to: -185
The Blackhawks are still without Connor Bedard (jaw) and even when he was healthy the team wasn’t exactly lighting things up on the road. They’re 4-19 SU away from home this year and haven’t been good at keeping things close when they’ve been outside Chicago, going 8-15 against the spread (ATS) in road games this season.
On the flip side, Vancouver has been one of the most dominant home teams all year (15-6 ATS at home). While this could be constructed as a “letdown” spot after a big home win against the Leafs, the Canucks are also a team that is still trying to prove its worth after multiple poor seasons. Simply put, with the Oilers and Golden Knights still lurking this isn’t necessarily a spot I’d expect to see Vancouver let off the gas. If anything, it’s a good time to send a message to their chasers that catching them won’t be easy by blowing a less than 100% Chicago team out of the water.
The odds are short (-160, 61.54% implied probability) but the Canucks have covered at a 71% rate at home this year and have covered in their past two home games against much better Eastern conference opponents. Given the Blackhawks’ lack of scoring depth right now there is likely a little bit of value lurking on the Vancouver puck line in this spot, even with this line as short as it is.
