💥 Two Suspension Bombshells

by Peter Overzet

2 years ago

If you're reading this newsletter, you're running with the 1s in the game of life...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Footballguys:

2 big pieces of suspension news: Deshaun Watson & Alvin Kamara
A sleeper rookie RB turning heads at camp
Handcuff szn: Darrel Williams
Fantasy Breakouts: Cole Kmet & Rashod Bateman
A huge day in the Fantasy Life Discord
It’s 8/2. Take it away, Peter Overzet…

Yesterday we got word on two big pieces of suspension news that will alter the fantasy landscape:

Despite early offseason rumblings of a full season suspension, Watson will be receiving a gentle slap-on-the-wrist in the form of a surprising six-game suspension. To put it in maddening perspective:

LMAO. Meanwhile Calvin Ridley suspended whole season for placing a bet. Right.
— Erin Kate Dolan (@erinkatedolan)
Aug 1, 2022

It's a bizarre decision by the league's disciplinary officer Sue L. Robinson. She outlined her ruling in a long 15-page report if you'd like to spend your morning reading a frustrating and tedious document.

There is a chance the NFL could appeal the decision, but it seems unlikely.

As for fantasy, Watson has already rocketed up into the 10th and 11th round of drafts and all of the pass catchers—Amari Cooper, David Njoku, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and David Bell—are getting pushed up as well.

Watson is a tougher sell in managed leagues where you'll need to stash him for six games, but he still presents big-time upside in the best ball tournaments where we know he can rival the top QBs from a points per game standpoint.

As we've hinted at in multiple spots before, we officially got word that Kamara's court hearing for felony battery was postponed 60 days.

This move makes it incredibly unlikely that Kamara will be suspended at all this year as the legal process will stretch late into the 2022 season.

This is your final call to draft Kamara cheap before he jumps 10-15 spots:

I've been hammering him 3rd/4th round. I have like 35% Kamara. But as this news settles, and people realize they likely get him all season, I think we start seeing mid-2nd ADP.
— JMToWin (@JMToWin)
Aug 1, 2022

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If you missed it, yesterday we launched our rewards program and the Fantasy Life Discord, and it was a wild day.

Over 1,500 fantasy football fans and sports bettors joined our community, and we're just getting started. Come hang out, and chat with industry experts and other fantasy players!

And don't forget about our special event on 8/10 👀

🎉 The surprise rookie RB running with the first-team offense. Start mixing him in at the end of your drafts.

🤑 Interesting clauses in the Deebo contract. Maybe he will want some RB touches now??

🚑 The Cowboys WR room is super thin. With this James Washington injury, they are really going to need the rookie Jalen Tolbert to step up.

🤪 Jamaal Williams is hilarious. I don't want to fade the "Swag Daddy."

🐶 KJ Hamler activated from the PUP list. Big sigh of relief if you've been hammering Hamler in drafts like me.

⏩ Absolutely wild statement by Eagles WR Quez Watkins. Ser, I don't think this is true.

🤒 Pete Carroll and Kyler Murray got COVID. Nothing says NFL is back quite like COVID cases.

Not all late-round RBs are the same. Some have way more contingent value than others. In this series, our Fantasy Life contributors share their favorite handcuff RBs who would step into a big role if there were an injury in front of them. Today, Sam hypes up Darrel Williams...

It’s easy to root for undrafted players who are successful in the NFL.

Darrel Williams, an undrafted RB, has not had an illustrious career. However, he made the most of a recent opportunity and earned a 1-year contract with the Cardinals.

Playing on the high-octane Chiefs offense, Williams stepped up when RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire went down last season. In 7 games without CEH, Williams posted impressive per/game numbers:

18 opportunities
90 total yards
17.5 points

5 of those games came from Weeks 6-10. In that span, Williams was the RB4. He also finished the season as the RB5 in receiving yards and RB13 in targets. The potential is there for true, bellcow upside.

Williams now slots in behind James Conner after Chase Edmonds signed with the Dolphins. Last season, Conner topped 200 carries for just the second time in his career but only mustered 3.7 yards/carry (RB60). Conner has also never played a full season. The injury concerns are real.

The Cardinals offense continues to run at a blistering pace. Their no-huddle rate of 33% last season was 6% higher than the second team (NYG) and more than double the third team (SEA). Arizona has run no-huddle on at least 29% of their plays in each of QB Kyler Murray’s 3 seasons as a starter. There’s no reason to think that will change.

This fast-paced environment presents an enticing fantasy situation for Williams.

Conner (13.4 attempts/game) and Edmonds (9.7 attempts/game) were both involved in the rushing game in 2021, so there’s optimism that Williams could see usage right away. He’s proven capable of shouldering a larger workload, and his price of RB54 on Underdog makes him an appealing option in your fantasy drafts.

(Note: I’m not worried about RB Eno Benjamin. He’s getting camp hype and that’s great but I’ll take the veteran they went out and signed over a player who touched the ball just 40 times as a sophomore after not playing as a rookie)

Drafting safe ain't it. We need to be taking big swings to win our leagues. Today, Cooterdoodle shares two players she thinks are primed for breakouts...

Breakout Indicators:

No more competition with Jimmy Graham
Bye bye head coach Matt Nagy
Increased receptions
Increased yards
New OC Luke Getsy

Here’s what we know: Kmet is now the TE 1 for Chicago. He saw double the targets and receptions in his 2021 sophomore season as compared to his rookie season in 2020, both of which had Graham sharing the field with him. Kmet tied for 8th in targets and 12th for receptions amongst all tight ends in 2021, and he no longer has to compete against a veteran TE in 2022.

Kmet can easily be drafted in the late 10th / early 11th round according to Fantasy Life’s ADP tool. If you are waiting to pull the trigger at the tight end position in your drafts, it’s hard to fade a guy taking passes from the 11th overall pick of the NFL draft in 2021. Oh! And the Bears new OC, Luke Getsy, comes from Green Bay, where tight ends have notoriously shined in the past. #Tonyan2020

Here’s what we hope for: QB Justin Fields needs to step up his gameplay now that he’s got some NFL experience under his belt. With long-time bad luck charm Matt Nagy out of the picture, Chicago fans are hopeful that Fields can rise in the rankings amongst some of the other young QBs dominating in the NFL as of late. If so, Kmet should benefit. He’s on the field for the majority of snaps and has garnered increased usage in terms of targets. The Bears need to execute on offense, but with a talented QB and coaching changes that only make the team better, spending a 10th round pick on Kmet is worth the risk. Just kmet.

Breakout Indicators:

New role as WR1
Back to full health
Elite QB
Efficiency

The Ravens have recently seen some movement at the WR position. Marquise Brown is now in Arizona, while Sammy Watkins and Myles Boykin are also no longer in Baltimore. You know what they say: When 3 doors close, another door opens. Knock knock. Who’s there? WR1 Rashod Bateman.

While his combined stats of 46 receptions for 515 yards and one TD may not feel like breakout material at first glance, it’s important to recognize Bateman only played 12 games due to an injury in 2021. In those games, he was about as efficient as they come.

Josh Siegel crunched the numbers and broke down how Bateman compared to other young receivers in the league. According to Siegel, Bateman’s first eight career games were remarkably similar to guys like A.J. Brown, Jaylen Waddle, and DeVonta Smith. Not only were Bateman’s catches and yards comparable, but he accomplished those stats while playing 59% of snaps.

It’s worth noting that QB Lamar Jackson saw a dip in production last season, but he has more than proved how capable he can be leading his offense in 2019 and 2020. Drafted alongside guys like D.K. Metcalf and JuJu Smith-Schuster, Bateman comes with a hefty 4th round price tag. However, his promotion to WR1, his efficiency in 2021, and his talented QB prime him for a breakout in 2022.