Just say no to invites onto Jim Irsayās bus...
In todayās Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by AI Tool Report:
Jonathan Taylor is pissed
OverReaction Monday: Training Camp hype
A concerning update on Kyler Murray
Dynasty Stock Watch: Two RBs headed in opposite directions
It's 7/31. Take it away, Peter Overzet...
If thereās been one overarching theme to this NFL summer itās disgruntled running backs.
And itās been an eventful few weeks on that frontā¦
Weāve seen RBs threaten holdouts, cleverly use the PUP to sit out, and even host a big Zoom meeting to figure out a collective plan of attack to earn the money they think they are deserved.
And now we have another angry RB to add to the mix: Colts superstar playmaker, Jonathan Taylor.
Taylor, who will earn $4.3 million this season on the final year of his rookie deal, has officially requested a trade out of Indy with a long-term extension looking unlikely.
"I'm under contract here for four years. I put the pen to the paper, so that's where I'm at right now. I have an obligation to them, and an obligation to me, but things will happen naturally." - Jonathan Taylor in April.
He hired his new agent a few weeks laterā¦and here we are.
Colts owner Jim Irsay hosted Taylor on his luxury bus for an hour on Saturday in an effort to smooth things over (āI canāt offer you a contract extension, but how about some Cliff Bars and a Fiji Water?ā).
It doesnāt appear that any progress was made on the bus, though. Irsay delivered this hilariously nihilistic quote after the meeting:
#Colts owner Jim Irsay: āIf I die tonight and Jonathan Taylor is out of the league, no oneās gonna miss us. The league goes on. We know that. The National Football (League) rolls on. It doesnāt matter who comes and who goes, and itās a privilege to be a part of it.ā
Itās not hard to read between the lines there and conclude that there is no contract offer coming.
In fact, the relationship appears to be further deteriorating with team sources claiming a pre-existing injury could result in Indianapolis withholding his 2023 salary. As you can imagine, Taylor was not pleased with the report.
š® So what happens next?
The Colts sound open to listening to trade offers, but it seems very unlikely that thereās an offer out there that would compel the team to actually move him.
As Field Yates notes here, it will be nearly impossible to find a team willing to pay both the trade price and the contract price.
For fantasy purposes, Iāve already seen screenshots of Taylor dropping significantly in drafts. Iām not sure that makes any sense. If a team ponies up for Taylor, they are likely a contending team looking to make a push. Any realistic trade would likely yield an upgrade in QB and offense for Taylor.
Letās add Jonathan Taylor to this Chiefs offense and see what happens
I realize we are starting to sound like a broken record on how to handle these situations in fantasy, but letās say it once moreā¦
Buy the dip.
We're humans who play fantasy football, which means we are prone to overreact. Today, Kendall gets hyped about training camp all-stars...
Itās the best time of the year! Alright, so thatās probably saved for when football actually starts, but this has to be a close second.
We are talking about TRAINING CAMP.
Weāve already gone over how to decipher the many quotes that we are going to be given over the next few weeks: āBest shape of my life,ā āNever seen anything like him,ā etc.
While we shouldnāt overreact too much, sometimes itās hard not to get excited about what we are seeing. Here are some (way too early) standouts that weāve been talking about the most.
š„ Calvin Ridley
Itās been a long time coming for Calvin Ridley to get back on the field, and damn has he been electric so far. Itās obvious that he is a man on a mission going into 2023.
We have to remember why we havenāt seen Ridley out there in so long. He broke his foot midway through the 2020 season and played through it in all but one game. Then, after only playing in five games in 2021, Ridley stepped away from the Falcons in October for his mental health.
And of course, everything was capped off after he was suspended for the whole 2022 season for gambling.
What Iām trying to say is that Ridley has time he wants to make up for and I think heās going to do just that.
āI just want my reputation and my name back. Thatās what Iām here to do,ā Ridley told The Athletic.
In Ridleyās last full season, he finished as a Top-5 fantasy option after collecting 90 passes, 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns. Itās understandable to be cautious because his last full season was in 2020, and since then he has only played in five NFL games. Maybe itāll backfire, but Iām allowing myself to have high expectations for Ridley in 2023.
š„ Bijan Robinson
This one really just seems unfair, but Bijan Robinson looks to be everything we were promised and more.
Look, Robinson was an absolute superstar at Texas and it explains why he was touted as a āgenerational talentā before the Falcons drafted him. He amassed 1,894 total yards and 20 touchdowns in 12 games in 2022.
HE IS THE CHEAT CODE.
If you see Fantasy Life retweeting (err is it still called that?), liking or commenting on any Robinson videos just mind your business!
š„ Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Maybe I am a little biased, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba has shown some great highlights throughout the start of training camp and we canāt just ignore them! Quarterback Geno Smith even had high praise for the rookie.
Itās definitely not a given that Smith-Njigba realizes his sky-high upside immediately. Only 12 rookie wide receivers have posted top-24 fantasy numbers (PPR points per game) over the past 10 years, but we can dream!
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š„ Travis Kelce throws a punch at training camp. In midseason form already.
šļø Both Seahawks RBs are injured?? That isnāt good.
š¤ When will Kyler Murray be ready to play? This doesnāt sound good.
š Mac Jones wining and dining a FA RB? Not sitting across from each other?!
šļø How Joe Burrowās calf injury will impact the Bengals. Nice rundown here.
š¶ āJustin, sign my baby!ā Thatās one way to get an autograph.
š¬ Will Tua Tagovailoa stay healthy? There may be MVP upside if soā¦
š A sleeper Chiefs WR is dominating camp. He had time to wipe his hands on the towel at the top of the route!
š¼ Frank Gore gets a new gig! Heās putting on a suit.
š½ļø Mack Hollins doesnāt like soft people. Throw away your utensils, everyone.
š Brian Robinson is ready for 2023. Itās a new year.
Training camps are officially underway! Sam Wallace analyzes a few players whose stock has increased or decreased as we enter August and explains what dynasty managers should do to stay ahead of the curve.
š Dynasty Stock Up: Antonio Gibson
Antonio Gibson has quickly become one of my most-written-about players this offseason.
Dare I say heās a leading āmy guyā candidate? Perhaps.
The fact remains, his price (in both redraft and dynasty) does not reflect what I think he can bring to both the NFL field and, more importantly, fantasy football rosters.
Once a WR, the converted tailback enters his fourth season after finishing as a top-13 option twice to begin his career. We know the talent and skill set are there, but the missing piece (opportunity) might finally fall into place this season.
First, the Commanders released J.D. McKissic, one of the premier pass-catching RBs of the last few years. Ian Hartitz noted, āOverall, Commanders RBs ranked second in expected PPR points per game during the 2020 to 2022 seasons.ā
There could be even MORE opportunity for Gibson to contribute in the passing game. Heās averaged north of 51 targets per year since entering the league. His ceiling is immense.
Fellow RB Brian Robinson is the other key cog of the backfield and his dynasty price is similar to Gibsonās. However, Robinson was an older prospect coming out of college and was one of the least-efficient rushers in 2022.
PFF rushing grade: 81.0 (16th among 41 qualified RBs)
Yards per carry: 3.9 (33rd)
Yards after contact per carry: 2.7 (35th)
Missed tackles forced per carry: 15.6% (27th)
He might be an early-down bruiser but isnāt someone I want to invest in for dynasty formats.
Finally, the Commanders added former Chiefs OC Eric Bieniemy to their staff this offseason and the positive coach-speak on Gibson is already starting.
Commanders HC Ron Rivera said he would like to get Gibson more touches in 2023 and Gibson recently stated he plans on being used in the 3rd-down back, pass-catching role.
With a dynasty ADP of RB32, which is only two picks higher than it was a month ago, Gibson provides the perfect blend of age (25), price, talent, and opportunity that dynasty managers should covet.
š Dynasty Stock Down: Dameon Pierce
As a fourth-round rookie, Dameon Pierce was a pleasant surprise during an otherwise forgettable 2022 season for the Houston Texans. He received double-digit carries in 12 of 13 games (he missed the final four weeks) and hauled in 30 of 39 targets.
What really stood out about Pierce was his workload.
Among RBs, Pierce finished No. 4 in percentage of team rushing attempts (76%) and No. 4 in percentage of total team opportunities (37%). That put him in the Derrick Henry/Josh Jacobs/Jonathan Taylor tier of workhorse tailbacks.
The Texans brought over Devin Singletary on a one-year deal to bolster the backfield. In his four-year career, Singletary has never been below 150 rushing attempts, 680 rushing yards, and 40 targets. New head coach DeMeco Ryans & Co. are going to involve both players which could cap the ceiling of both.
Pierceās dynasty ADP sits at RB19 which is fine for a 23-year-old coming off a stellar season. However, pivoting off of him is a bet Iām willing to make. He likely wonāt garner the same share of the backfield opportunity moving forward and his Day 3 draft capital makes him a prime dynasty downgrade.
Four more players to watch in dynasty
Hello Iāve been complimented on my ābill belichick shirtā tonight
