April showers bring Zay Flowers? I'm sorry...
In todayās Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Underdog Fantasy:
- Another RB threatens a holdout
- WR Landing Spots: Chiefs & Bills
- Futures Betting: Back to the well?
- 2023 NFL Mock Draft: Pick 5
- It's 4/13. Take it away, Peter Overzet...
Let's face it. The QBs are hogging the headlines these days. But one sneaky piece of drama bubbled to the surface yesterday involving Saquon Barkley, who, like Austin Ekeler, wants to get paid:
Iām told Saquon Barkley will not be signing the franchise tag & therefore will not be eligible to participate when the #NYG offseason program begins Monday. More to come on @NewsdaySports.
The Giants needed some fixing after a promising but ultimately disappointing year. However, they've acted accordingly by signing QB Daniel Jones to a long-term contract while beefing up his supporting cast.
The 26-year-old Barkley turned down a multi-year deal worth $12 million in October, and it now appears he's lost all of his leverage.
There's now only one lever Barkley can pull while angling for a new contract:
Holding out.
The real question is: how long Barkley is willing to bluff?
Saquon Barkley wasnāt happy with the franchise tag, and this is his way of making that known. Thereās no real crisis until training camp begins and from what I hear no camp holdout is expected ā at least not yet. š twitter.com/kimjonessportsā¦
The Giants are perfectly content carrying the $10 million salary cap hit on his 2023 contract, which means we are headed toward a standstill.
Both parties will have until mid-July to negotiate a multi-year extension. Otherwise, he'd have to play the 2023 season on the non-exclusive tag.
Who knows how ugly this could get? Is Barkley willing to try to force a trade? Or is he just going to take some time to save face??
For those of you drafting right now, Barkley has slid into the second tier of RBs along with Ekeler and rookie Bijan Robinson. I don't think a ton changes with his fantasy value based on this news, so I'll happily buy the dip if other drafters panic.
š¤š» The next great QB-TE combo? A sneak peek.
š The shortest player in NFL history? It's about to happen...
š” An Aaron Rodgers update. The trade talks continue.
š® Intriguing draft nuggets. Albert Beer's mailbag is brimming with them.
š This dude is a Tank. No, literally.
š§³ Where will Hendon Hooker land? He's lined up some interesting team visits.
š¤ Is Bijan Robinson a bad selection in Round 1? Bill Barnwell explains.
āļø OBJ on the tarmac. Tiny baby and a tiny mic.
š° Minimum Work. Maximum Payout
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Finding values on NFL future bets is a year-round venture, but most of us don't have the time to birddog all of the options. That is why we are lucky to have our resident futures expert, LaMarca, constantly sniffing for value...
Iāve focused a lot on longshots to start this series, touching on teams like the Bears, Falcons, and Broncos to exceed expectations. However, grabbing exposure to the favorites can also pay dividends. The Chiefs were one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl heading into last season, and they ultimately got the job done.
Iām going right back to the well in 2023-24...
š® Chiefs to win the Super Bowl (+650) @ BetMGM
The Chiefs may not have the best overall roster in terms of talent, but they have one thing that no other team does: Patrick Mahomes.
Mahomes isnāt just the best quarterback in football. Heās trending toward being one of the best quarterbacks in league history. His consistency has been remarkable since taking over as a full-time starter in 2018. Heās led the team to the AFC Championship game in five straight seasons, something that has only previously been done by Tom Brady and Ken Stabler. Thatās pretty darn good company, and Mahomes did it in his first five years.
Mahomes has also led the Chiefs to three Super Bowl appearances over that stretch, and heās won two of them. The lone exception was against Bradyās Buccaneers while playing being a paper mĆ¢chĆ© offensive line.
Mahomes also took home his second MVP award in arguably his most impressive season to date. His numbers werenāt quite as good as they were in his first MVP season, but he did it without the benefit of Tyreek Hill. He still led the league in both touchdown passes and passing yards per game despite the worst supporting cast of his career.
The team also lost JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman at receiver, but neither player was a particularly impactful player last year. Hardman played in just eight games last season ā including none in the postseason ā while Smith-Schuster managed less than 60 yards per game as the teamās No. 1 receiver. Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, and Richie James should be able to absorb those roles allowing address the position during the draft, where they have 10 picks.
As long as Mahomes and Andy Ried are in town, the Chiefs are going to contend for a championship every single year. Thereās always a chance that Mahomes could get hurt, but as he stays healthy, theyāre the favorites for a sixth-straight trip to the AFC Championship.
We have 5 more picks waiting for you...
What follows is a breakdown on the most fantasy-friendly WR landing spots available for free agents, trade targets and draft picks alike. *Fantasy* is the key word here; weāre looking to see which offenses would optimize fantasy points, not necessarily real life wins. Take it away, Ian...
Supporting cast goodness and ease of pathway to the starting job were the main factors considered. Landing spots are only being considered for 2023. Cool? Cool.
š„ Best available WR landing spots:
š Kansas City Chiefs
Yes, the Chiefs managed to win last seasonās Super Bowl without a single WR who should be considered a true No. 1 option.
Also yes, itās not illegal to try and spruce up the position anyway.
Through trade, free agency or the draft: Kansas City has some work to do if they want to have anything other than one of the leagueās single-most unproven WR rooms. Each playerās career receiving production is listed in parenthesis:
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling (165 rec-2,840 yards-15 TD)
- Richie James (95-1,258-7)
- John Ross (62-957-11)
- Kadarius Toney (55-591-2)
- Skyy Moore (22-250-0)
- Ihmir Smith-Marsette (6-131-2)
- Justyn Ross (0-0-0)
- Cornell Powell (0-0-0)
- Ty Fryfogle (0-0-0)
- Jerrion Ealy (0-0-0)
Three of last seasonās top-five leaders in receiving yards arenāt on the roster at the moment, and the Chiefs have the 10th-cheapest WR room in the league. Travis Kelce was very much still incredible in 2022, although heāll be 34 by the time October rolls around.
Patrick Mahomes just led the NFL in passing yards (5,250) and TDs (41); itās easy to imagine him getting the most out of a starting trio of MVS, Toney and Moore. Still, at this point, his $45 million per year is āonlyā the fifth-highest mark in the league. Letās not make life too hard on the soon-to-be 28-year-old franchise QB.
š Dream match: Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins
Unnecessary? Maybe.
An objectively fun idea? Absolutely.
Hopkinsā nuanced route-running ability would be a welcome sight inside of an offense without many non-Kelce pass-catchers capable of consistently winning against man coverage.
š Buffalo Bills
Stefon Diggs is undoubtedly a stud and showed zero signs of slowing down in 2022. Overall, the 29-year-old WR has ripped off 127-1,535-8, 103-1,225-10 and 108-1,429-11 receiving lines during his first three seasons in Buffalo; nobody is entering this offense and taking over the No. 1 spot.
And yet, itād be a lot cooler if the Bills could add some level of additional investment to the WR room.
There have been flashes from certain complementary options over the years, but the lack of an established No. 2 WR isnāt all that surprising considering the minimal resources the Bills have spent on the position other than Diggs:
- Gabriel Davis: 2020 fourth-round pick
- Khalil Shakir: 2022 fifth-round pick
- Deonte Harty: Former undrafted free agent, two-year, $9.5 million contract
- Trent Sherfield: Former undrafted free agent, one-year, $1.2 million contract
- KeeSean Johnson: Former 2019 sixth-round pick,
- Dezmon Patmon: Former 2020 sixth-round pick,
- Isaiah Coulter: Former 2020 fifth-round pick
Hell, even Diggs was originally (and inexcusably) a fifth-round pick back in the day. This makes Davisā fourth-round draft capital the highest of any WR presently on the roster. Madness!
The Bills have scored the second-most points in the NFL over the past three seasons; clearly, things have been going just fine on the offensive side of the ball. However, even Buffalo wasn't thrilled about the group by signing old friends Cole Beasley and John Brown late in the 2022 season.
Similar to the Chiefs: Itās legal to pair an incredible QB with more than one high-end pass-game option.
š Dream match: Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
The extra luxury that could really take this Bills offense to the next level is a YAC-beast to help punish defenses content to keep both safeties deep in an effort to contain Allenās big arm. While Smith-Njigba is unlikely to make it to the Bills at pick No. 27, you donāt need more than one hand to count the number of superior landing spots in terms of 2023 fantasy upside.
The third best landing spot...
Fantasy Life's Eliot Crist has put together a finely crafted first-round mock draft that considers many factors, including betting odds and teams' drafting history while pulling the curtain up on draft rumors and smoke screens. Today we are spotlighting his No. 5 pick to the Seahawks...
5.) Seattle Seahawks - EDGE, Will Anderson, Alabama, Jr.
- 6ā3, 253lbs, 21 years old
This is a dream for the Seattle Seahawks, with 4 QBs coming off the board to start the draft, leaving them the pick of the litter on all blue-chip non-QB prospects.
For the past two years, Will Anderson has proven himself to be the most dominant pass rusher in college football, boasting a whopping 14 more QB pressures than any other player.
