😎 Utilization Takeaways You NEED To Know

The best thing about the fantasy squad being 5-0 is the chance to go 6-0…

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Underdog Fantasy:

• The Injury Gods show no mercy
• Sheesh Report: The Ravens let Lamar Jackson down last week
• Utilization Report: Add Tyjae Spears NOW
• QUICK HITTER: Update to the Dolphins backfield.
• Deshaun Watson (shoulder) still isn’t practicing
• Week 6 Waiver Wire Report: Roschon Johnson RB1 szn?
• It’s 10/10. Take it away, Ian Hartitz…

The Raiders took down the Packers 17-13 on Monday night. There's a good chance you weren't too happy with the game if your fantasy matchup was riding on a Monday night miracle, as no individual skill-position player managed to reach triple-digit yardage on the evening.

A quick 100-word recap of last night’s festivities:

• Jakobi Meyers (7-75-1) led the way, as Davante Adams (4-45-0) saw just four targets – his fewest in a non-injured game since September 22, 2019.
• Josh Jacobs (89 total yards, 1 TD) continued to bounce back from his slow start.
• Jordan Love threw not one, not two, but three interceptions during what was easily his worst performance of the season.
• A.J. Dillon (20-76-1 rushing) filled in admirably for Aaron Jones (hamstring), although Patrick Taylor remained plenty involved on passing downs.
• Christian Watson (3-91-0) turned a blown coverage into an electric 77-yard gain. Even better: His usage was back to normal.

Sadly, Monday night football wasn’t the only major fantasy football happening to occur over the last 12 hours.

The Vikings are planning on placing WR Justin Jefferson (hamstring) on the injured reserve list, while Dolphins RB De’Vaon Achane (knee) is expected to miss multiple weeks and is a candidate for injured reserve.

Why can’t we as a society have nice things?

The Jefferson news is a brutal gut punch. The absurdly talented fourth-year WR was on pace to have his best season yet and will now miss at least the next four games.

Immediate fantasy ramifications for the near term:

• Kirk Cousins: Downgraded to more of a borderline QB1 as opposed to the legit high-end QB1 he’s been through five weeks.
• Jordan Addison: The explosive first-round rookie becomes a weekly recommended start with the potential to BOOM as an upside WR2 as early as this Sunday against the Bears.
• K.J. Osborn: Goes from desperation FLEX play to a volume-induced top-40 option at the position.
• T.J. Hockenson: Suddenly projects as possibly the team’s No. 1 pass-game option; Hockenson could be ranked as the overall TE1 in all of fantasy football this week and beyond if Travis Kelce (ankle) is forced to miss any time.

And then there’s Achane, who is at least out for the near term if not (sadly) quite a bit longer. The absence of the electric rookie talent obviously downgrades what has been easily the NFL’s most explosive offense through five weeks of action.

Still, it’s objectively good news for Raheem Mostert, who has already scored more half-PPR points than any RB not named Christian McCaffrey this season. Mostert becomes a weekly MUST-START RB1 if he wasn’t already.

There’s also Jeff Wilson (finger/midsection, IR), whose 21-day practice window is expected to be opened this week.

The veteran largely worked ahead of Mostert down the stretch of 2022 and could immediately factor into the run-game equation as early as Sunday against the Panthers. Run, don’t walk, to the waiver wire and scoop him up if somehow still available in your league.

Maybe Salvon Ahmed will carve out a week or two of fantasy relevance if Wilson is slow to return; just realize this backfield should remain a fairly lethal two-back committee featuring all kinds of production inside of the NFL’s highest-scoring offense (36.2 points per game).

Well, this has been an objectively sad Tuesday morning thus far. That said: Time to turn those frowns upside down: We’re on to preparing for Week 6.

You know those plays that don’t show up in the box score, but you know they happened? Dropped passes? TDs nullified by a penalty? The sort of things that make fantasy managers jump out of their seats in anticipation, only to realize their player just barely missed their opportunity to rack up all kinds of points?

Well, those sort of near-miss happenings are called “Sheesh!” moments around these parts — and Ian Hartitz is here to help fantasy managers cry all over again by breaking down all of Week 5’s close calls that didn’t include a cigar.

😭 The Ravens dropped seven passes in their loss to the Steelers

That total is good for the highest single-game mark of 2023 and included two drops in the end zone as well as two on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield.

Never has a mediocre box score been so misleading. Sheesh.

Hell, these don’t even include Zay Flowers inexplicably falling down after getting wide open deep for what should have been good for a 30-plus-yard gain – if not a 75-yard house call.

There was a lot of conversation entering the season about the Ravens’ new shiny WR core helping Jackson reach new heights as a passer. Well, through five weeks he’s one of just six QBs to have double-digit passes dropped – the 2019 NFL MVP has actually been one of the league’s most-accurate throwers of the football when adjusting for these miscues:

• Overall adjusted completion rate: 80.3% (No. 5 among 36 qualified QB)
• On passes 10 to 19 yards downfield: 87.1% (No. 2)
• On passes 20-plus yards downfield: 44.4% (No. 14)

Jackson has still managed to post top-10 fantasy numbers this season, just realize that his overall counting numbers through the air have had the potential to be far higher through no fault of his own.

Overall, only Matthew Stafford (123) has more incomplete air yards on dropped passes than Jackson (121). Sheesh.

🤏 David Montgomery and Joe Mixon were so close, yet so far away

The ex-Bears RB has scored six TDs in four games this season as the bell-cow back inside of the Lions’ fourth-ranked scoring offense.

And yet, Montgomery left a lot of meat on the bone last Sunday, getting stopped at the one-yard line not once but TWICE on drives that ended with TDs for Josh Reynolds and Jared Goff.

That is sheeshy enough – but later in the game fantasy managers had to watch backup RB Craig Reynolds get the ball inside the five-yard line, look to the sideline seemingly expecting Montgomery to replace him for goal-line duties, only to be told to stay on the field by his teammate and Lions RB coach Scottie Montgomery.

Reynolds would score two plays later and get mobbed by his teammates – especially Montgomery himself. It was a very cool moment … for everyone except Montgomery’s fantasy managers.

And then there’s Mixon, who was just one measly yard away from helping the Bengals put up a 40 piece during their Week 5 win over the Cardinals.

The sheesh-by-sheesh breakdown:

• 1st down at the Cardinals’ 10-yard line: Mixon gains six yards to the four. Things are looking good!
• 2nd down at the four-yard line: The Bengals give the ball to Mixon again, and he gets all the way to the one-yard line. Fantastic!
• 3rd down at the one-yard line: Mixon is stuffed on a run up the middle courtesy of a brilliant fill by Cardinals CB Antonio Hamilton. Not ideal!
• 4th down at the one-yard line: Mixon again fails to find the end zone despite falling forward and getting within inches from the goal line. Sheesh.

No RB had more expected half PPR points than Mixon (30.1) in Week 5. As Al Pacino once said: “Life is just a game of inches. So is (fantasy) football.”

Here’s the full list of Week 5’s players who managed to get the football within three feet of the goal line, but not quite across the plane, and ultimately didn’t score later on the same drive:

• Bengals RB Joe Mixon (3x on the same drive)
• Lions RB David Montgomery (2x on separate drives)
• 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey
• 49ers RB/WR Deebo Samuel
• Panthers RB/WR Laviska Shenault
• Lions WR Kalif Raymond

“Congrats” to D’Andre Swift and Mixon for being the only players with three such instances of this sheeshy affair so far in 2023.

The likes of Montgomery, C.J. Stroud, Brian Robinson, Josh Jacobs, Rachaad White, Joshua Kelley, AJ Dillon, Kyren Williams, Isiah Pacheco, and Rashee Rice are the only other players with two such sheeshes this season.

The rest of Week 5’s “Sheesh!” moments

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NFL depth charts move pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss integral utilization changes that could make the difference between your fantasy player booming or busting. Good news: Fantasy Life Director of Analytics Dwain “The Rock” McFarland is back with his critically acclaimed Utilization Report to catch you up on the BIGGEST usage takeaways from last week’s action.

🐏 1. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua can co-exist as high-end WRs.

In Kupp’s first game back from injury, he and Nacua combined to account for an astounding 68% of the Rams targets in Week 5 against the Eagles. Both WRs registered top-10 fantasy finishes.

While that sort of target domination from two players is rare – it is possible, given the high-end target-earning ability each player has demonstrated.

The Rams Team Style is also working in favor of the duo. Los Angeles ranks fifth in dropback rate over expectation (DBOE) at 6% on the season and ranks sixth in plays per minute over expectation (PPMOE) at +0.06.

Regardless of the game script, Sean McVay wants this team passing and playing fast. There is a chance that the Rams lead the NFL in passing attempts – they currently rank second at 40.6.

Look for Matthew Stafford to continue peppering his top-two options with the majority of targets in an offense that has big upside, thanks to their suddenly loaded WR room.

Outlook: Kupp and Nacua are both WR1s the rest of the way.

✈️ 2. Breece Hall has taken over the lead rushing role for the Jets.

Robert Saleh told us last week that the restrictor plate was removed from Hall’s touch count, and he wasn’t lying. The second-year back delivered 28 fantasy points on 22 attempts and three targets in Week 5 against that high school defense from Denver.

Hall registered a season-high 76% of the rushing attempts, and while he might not dominate in that fashion every week, he is clearly in the driver’s seat with Dalvin Cook looking like toast.

Michael Carter continues to play a role, handling the two-minute offense (91%) and most of the long-down-distance snaps (84%), but Hall was a high-end passing game weapon as a rookie, and we could see his utilization expand similarly on that front over time. Hall’s 21% TPRR is in RB1 territory based on the last three years of data.

Outlook: Hall UPGRADES to high-end RB2 status the rest of the way.

👀 3. Tyjae Spears might be the BEST STASH PLAY in fantasy football.

Spears handles almost all of the passing down work for the Titans, and in Week 5, he registered his largest rushing workload at 33%. Derrick Henry is still the No. 1 option on the ground, but his grip appears to be in a slight downward trend since Week 1.

These situations are always hard to read – sometimes, something that looks like a trend is just variance.

However, for the first time in a long time, it isn’t 100% clear that Henry is the best RB on the Titans.

Henry faces eight-plus defenders in the box almost twice as often as Spears, but it is hard to ignore the decline in the veteran’s underlying efficiency data. At the age of 29, there is a chance that age has finally caught up to King Henry.

Considering the downward trends in utilization and efficiency for Henry, combined with how well Spears is playing, the rookie should be rostered in most formats.

The team already trusts him on passing downs, which supplies flex value. Spears offers contingent upside should he carve out more work or if Henry suffers an injury.

We love outs, and Spears offers plenty of them. His 26% rostership in Yahoo! leagues is far too low, making him a high-priority add in the Fantasy Life Waiver Hub heading into Week 6.

FAAB Recommendation: 15-25%

Outlook: Spears UPGRADES to mid-range RB3 status and offers contingent RB1 upside should Henry go down.

The rest of Week 5’s KEY utilization takeaways

It’s Tuesday, which means it’s officially Week 6. To welcome in the new week of Fantasy Football, Matthew Freedman was up at the crack of dawn to make sure his rankings were ready for you before your morning coffee. Check out his full Week 6 rankings set here!

🎥 Dallas Goedert’s girlfriend went crazy celebrating his first TD of the year. There must be a LOT of bonus footage.

📈 There’s a lot to like about this second-year RB’s rest-of-season upside. BUY LOW.

🤩 Babe, wake up. Another cool Bijan Robinson overhead highlight just dropped.

🤬 George Kittle’s t-shirt from Sunday night had quite the message on it. Those are fighting words!

🏥 Sometimes one bye week isn’t enough time to cure an injury. This update sure doesn’t sound great!

🧐 BIG news on key players currently on injured reserve. Be pumped about this one, and add this one NOW if available in your league.

😨 Rough injury news for one of fantasy’s most pleasant surprises of the season. At a minimum, he’ll miss Week 6.

🙃 It looks like the Giants avoided any serious injury here. Here’s to hoping things get better (they can’t get much worse).

Bye weeks are alive and well, meaning it’s more necessary to stay on top of the weekly waiver wire scene than ever. Lucky for you: Resident Fantasy Life waiver wire expert Chris Allen is here to help you, a scholar, make the best free agency choices possible ahead of Week 6.

I know we say this every year, but: this season is different.

And after five weeks, it feels like it, right?

Injuries have caused seismic shifts across the league and our rosters each week. Honestly, I’m surprised folks still have any FAAB money. From Puka Nacua to De’Von Achane, we’ve been fighting for top-12 options instead of churning our bench.

And we still have teams on bye to go with health issues.

To help, I combed through Sunday’s usage trends to find the top waiver claims for Week 6.

Looking for recommended FAAB budgeting and even more Waiver Wire analysis? Head to our Waiver Hub to get all of that and more, for FREE!

🐻 Roschon Johnson, RB - Bears

Two key pieces of information with this recommendation to consider:

Khalil Herbert’s injury severity and timeline to return are unknown. But placing him on IR is on the table.

Roschon Johnson is in the concussion protocol but has extra time to clear as the team played in TNF.

Through four weeks, Johnson was keeping it interesting. Herbert took more of the snaps (57.0%), but the rookie was the more efficient runner. Roschon’s 0.07 EPA per rush ranked ahead of Christian McCaffrey’s (0.06). And Chicago was using Johnson just enough to let us know they believed in his talent.

Getting aggressive to add Johnson is the right move. It’s a tiny sample within a smaller set, but Chicago ranks third in EPA per play over the last two weeks. Granted, they’ve played flawed teams, but the Vikings fit into the same bucket. Given Johnson’s potential workload as the starter, get him on your roster now and follow the status of his health throughout the week.

Final note: D’Onta Foreman becomes the obvious option if Johnson doesn’t clear the protocol in time.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 20%

💨 Josh Downs, WR - Colts

I talked about Josh Downs ahead of W4. But I’m not pointing this out as a victory lap. His role was different, with Alec Pierce earning downfield shots against the Ravens. But by most metrics, Downs has solidified himself as the team’s WR2 after Sunday:

• Target share: 19.9% (Weeks 1-4), 25.0% (Week 5)
• Targets per route run: 20.8%, 26.1%
• Air yard share: 17.0%, 31.8%
• Air yards per target: 6.33, 9.0

The air yards per target part is what caught my eye. I saw Downs as a short-area option that required volume to make a real impact in fantasy. But both Richardson and Minshew looked at him in the intermediate parts of the field. Plus, Downs’ target share equaled Michael Pittman’s in obvious passing situations.

With the QB change, production might go down, but we can’t ignore the role for Downs in this passing attack.

Waiver Hub FAAB recommendation: 20%

The FULL Week 6 Waiver Wire Report

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