UFC — the only league where it’s easier to bet on these guys than spell their names…
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by BetMGM:
NBA Bets: Fade the streaking Bucks?
March Madness: Saturday features a loaded college hoops slate.
UFC Vegas 87: Rozenstruik poised for an upset?
It’s 3/1. Take it away, Matt LaMarca
The NBA is entering the home stretch, with most teams looking at around 25 games remaining on their schedule. It’s the time to make that final push for a guaranteed playoff spot, home-court advantage, or to punch a ticket to the play-in tournament.
Friday features nine games to choose from, giving us plenty of opportunities to look for value in the betting market. Let’s dive into a few of my favorite plays for tonight’s slate:
🐂 Bulls (+4.0) vs. Bucks (-108; DraftKings)
The Bucks have seemingly turned things around after the All-Star break, winning four straight games while looking significantly better on the defensive end. They’ve held three straight opponents to less than 100 points after allowing 118.8 points per game during the first half of the year.
That said, Milwaukee hasn’t exactly been challenged of late. Their past three wins have come against the 76ers and Hornets (twice), so it’s not that surprising that the Bucks have looked better. Philly is merely 24th in offensive efficiency over their past 10 games, while Charlotte ranks dead last.
The Bucks will face a stiffer test vs. the Bulls, who have been a league-average team over their past 10 games. They’re 15th in Net Rating over that time frame, resulting in a 5-5 record.
This also stands out as an excellent situational spot for the Bulls. They’re coming off an off day, while the Bucks will be on the road for the second leg of a back-to-back. Milwaukee is also just 10-13 ATS as a road favorite, while Chicago is 8-4-1 as a home dog. I’ll grab the four points with the Bulls in this matchup.
✍️ Cody Martin Over 4.5 assists (+130; DraftKings)
Things have gotten pretty desperate for the Hornets. They’re still playing without LaMelo Ball, while the team traded away Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward, and P.J. Washington before the deadline. That leaves them with an extremely young core moving and virtually no natural playmakers.
Tre Mann has taken over as the team’s starting point guard, and he’s fared well in that role. However, Martin has also been asked to pick up the slack as a distributor. He’s averaged 4.8 assists over his past 10 games, and he’s handed out at least five dimes in three straight contests. That includes seven assists two games ago vs. the Bucks, despite playing just 22.2 minutes and the team scoring just 85 points.
The offense should look significantly better Friday vs. the 76ers. Philly has been a disaster defensively since losing Joel Embiid, and they’re 23rd in defensive efficiency over their past 10 games. The 76ers are still a heavy favorite, but Charlotte should at least be able to put some points on the scoreboard.
There are two ways to play Martin’s assist prop on Friday: You can grab the over on 3.5 at around -165, or you can shoot for the +130 payout on 4.5. The former is obviously a bit safer, but given the matchup, I’ll go for the bigger upside.
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🤔 The “C-word” might not be the one you think. Kiké Hernandez has some thoughts about his free agency.
🗓 It’s March 1, which means only one thing — college basketball SZN. Saturday is offering up a huge slate with plenty of important matchups.
🐦 Combine season opened with a couple of interesting quotes. None better than one TE’s take on… birds.
🐦⬛ Hot’ Lanta. Speaking of birds, the Falcons are now the favorite to land this beleaguered QB.
🕶️ LA Story. The Lakers’ huge comeback against the Clippers paid big for one live bettor.
✍️ Bet like a pro. Solid advice (but my losses are definitely still rigged).
🤑 It’s a good day to be Matthew Berry’s Ride or Die. The Sun God is about to get paid.
🏆 Make HERstory. Caitlin Clark takes the court Sunday 18 points shy of the NCAA scoring record.
⚾ MLB Opening Day is just 27 days away. Some big-time prospects were on display in Orioles-Pirates on Thursday.
The action returns to the UFC Apex early this Saturday with UFC Vegas 87. The 11-fight card is headlined by a heavyweight clash between No. 12-ranked Jarzinho Rozenstruik and undefeated prospect Shamil Gaziev. In a card filled with heavy favorites, Mark Drumheller uncovers some profitable angles in his best bets for the event.
🥊 Jairzinho Rozenstruik Over Shamil Gaziev (+140; DraftKings)
Somebody is getting knocked out when these two fighters collide on Saturday.
This is your classic who-gets-who-first matchup, which is why the defense and experience of Rozenstruik make the underdog worth backing.
Gaziev is coming off an impressive debut where he butchered Martin Buday in an early second-round stoppage. However, headlining an event in only his second UFC fight feels like too much too soon. While his relentless forward pressure has overwhelmed lesser competition, it’s just a matter of time before he pays the price for the holes it creates in his defense.
I’m betting that time will come this Saturday. Gaziev’s habit of keeping his hands low in exchanges is a significant liability tailor-made for an experienced counter-striker like Rozenstruik. I’m confident the wrong fighter is favored, giving us considerable value at the current odds of +140.
🤼♂️ Favorite Prop: Umar Nurmagomedov Over Bekzat Almakhan by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (-125; DraftKings)
The undefeated Nurmagomedov has been earmarked as a future championship contender in the Bantamweight division. After a high-profile fight against No. 3-ranked Cory Sandhagen was derailed by injury, he steps back into the Octagon as a massive favorite.
Let’s be honest — Almakhan is being fed to the lions in his UFC debut. This is a showcase fight for Nurmagomedov’s arsenal of pressure wrestling, vicious leg kicks, and submissions, which will be on full display. He has been bet up as high as -1400, and this prop is the perfect way to capitalize on the heavy favorite at plus money.
The gap between the implied odds of his moneyline price (93.3%) and this prop (55.6%) is too wide to justify. Nurmagomedov has defeated four of his last five opponents inside the distance, with two of the last three coming in the first round.
⏰ Parlay: Victor Petrino ML + Javid Basharat by Decision (+113; DraftKings)
Petrino is a solid prospect in the lightweight division in an advantageous matchup against Tyson Pedro. Petrino has landed 12 total takedowns over his first three UFC fights, and with his odds climbing north of -300, the market agrees his grappling will be the difference when these two powerful strikers face off.
The key to our approach for his parlay is utilizing the value in the consistency of how Basharat’s fights play out to yield a plus-money return. Outside of his last bout, which ended as a no-contest, Basharat’s UFC career has started with three straight unanimous decision victories. He is a well-rounded minute-winner who methodically picks apart his opponents by blending his striking with takedowns. Until the UFC provides him with stiffer competition, there is no reason to bet Basharat won’t continue to cruise to decision victories.
