JT vs. Arthur Smith, choose your fighter…
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Masterworks:
- The return of Jonathan Taylor?
- Week 16 Rankings & Tiers: Two smash plays
- QUICK HITTER: TNF Best Bet
- Mike McDaniel’s impassioned speech
- Freedman’s Favorites: Big names to bet on
- It’s 12/21. Take it away, Peter Overzet…
What a rollercoaster of a year it’s been for Colts RB Jonathan Taylor.
This might seem tedious, but let’s put things in perspective and do a quick recap of his past six months:
- Placed on the PUP list in July after he underwent surgery to clean up an ankle injury
- Requests a trade from the team after meeting with Jim Irsay on a bus
- Doesn’t practice at training camp due to some combo of the injury and contract situation
- Returns to training camp in mid-August but remains on the PUP list
- Leaves training camp days later for personal reasons
- Receives permission from the Colts to seek a trade
- The Dolphins make at least one trade offer for him
- No trade occurs, and the Colts place him on the PUP list due to the ankle injury
- Misses the first four weeks of the season and then signs a three-year $42m contract
- Returns in Week 5 to face the Titans and receives a limited workload in his first two games back
- Reclaims the backfield lead over Zack Moss for the next 5 weeks
- Suffers a thumb injury in Week 12 that requires surgery
- Misses weeks 13-15
Phew, I’m exhausted just typing it all out.
But that brings us up to date and to the latest development:
On top of that, Zack Moss was estimated as a non-participant, which means we could be looking at a 20+ touch game for Taylor vs. the Falcons this week.
Our collection of rankers value him somewhere between a back-end RB1 to a mid-range RB2:
It’s always scary trusting a player coming off injury, much less in the fantasy playoffs, but there isn’t any reason to sit Taylor here unless you have three other Top 10 backs.
Let’s ride…and stick it to Arthur Smith in the process.
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It is time to make those tough lineup decisions for Week 16 of the fantasy football season. Below you’ll find Dwain’s thoughts on two players set up for a big week. Find all of our positional rankings here.
💥 Wide Receiver
🥉 Tier 3 - Calvin Ridley
Fantasy managers have had difficulty pinning down when to start and bench Ridley this season. He has three top-three finishes and five finishes outside the Top 40 WRs. However, his utilization has settled in at ELITE WR1 levels over the last three games without Christian Kirk – averaging 10.3 targets, 1.3 endzone targets, and 148 air yards.
Indeed, the fantasy points haven’t followed his recent surge in opportunities, but the former Round 1 NFL Draft pick is due for a monster outing. Based on data from the last 12 NFL seasons, Ridley’s comps averaged 19.2 points and a WR6 finish.
With Zay Jones labeled week-to-week, the Jaguars passing attack will revolve around Ridley and Evan Engram. The biggest question for Jacksonville this week is the status of Trevor Lawrence, who is working through the concussion protocol.
Five weeks ago, this was an offense averaging 236 passing yards, carving up targets between three to four weapons. Lawrence has been on fire lately, averaging 281 yards and 1.8 TDs since Week 11.
Ridley’s situation has changed more than any other WR in the NFL over the last few games, and he draws a premium matchup against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay allows the second-most passing yards per game (283) and the fifth-most fantasy points to WRs.
Ridley is my WR15 this weekend and ranks 12 spots ahead of industry consensus as a top-35 overall play. He is a SMASH play, assuming Trevor Lawrence suits up.
💥 Wide Receiver
🥉 Tier 3 - Amari Cooper
Last offseason, the Browns indicated they wanted to move to a pass-first offense, but it simply hasn’t come to fruition due to QB challenges. But over the last three games with Joe Flacco under center, Cleveland boasts a 7% DBOE (dropback rate over expectation).
During this three-game stretch, the Browns have averaged a mouth-watering 47.3 dropbacks per game. Cooper left Week 13 early due to injury, but he has averaged 10.5 targets and 132 air yards over the last two contests.
While the Texans might not be able to force the Browns into a shootout without C.J. Stroud, per the 40-point game total, they have been a funnel defense. Houston’s stingy run defense allows the sixth-fewest rushing yards (93) per contest. Last weekend, they held Derrick Henry – who has owned Houston in recent years – to 16 yards on nine carries. However, the Texans cough up the seventh-most yards through the air (260).
Cooper is my WR16 this weekend and files in 14 slots ahead of industry consensus as my No. 35 player overall.
ALL of the Week 16 Rankings you NEED
The Fantasy Life FREE Bet Tracker is already loaded with a handful of plays for Thursday Night Football, and Matt LaMarca wrote a comprehensive breakdown of the best ways to attack this game. Looking for a peek behind the curtain?…
😅 Better late than never? We can FINALLY upgrade these three WRs.
🔥 Want to get fired up? Watch this Mike McDaniel speech.
📈 The Vikings have a new lead back. Giddyup.
🚀 This WR is in a blowup spot on Thursday. Best TD bet for TNF.
📺 James Cook’s rise, Josh Allen’s MVP run, upgrades, and more. An All-Star crew gets you primed for Week 16.
🎅 Looks like Christmas came early. TNF bets and Pick’em plays, all for free.
💪 You might not want to admit it…but there’s a new overall TE1.
⚔️ A healthy total and only a 4-point spread? Everything you need to dominate TNF betting and the DFS showdown slate.
😆 The Titans are returning to a familiar face at QB. One last hurrah?
💰 This RB has logged a 20+ yard run in 8 of his last 10 games. Trends to bet on in Week 16.
👋 The QBs who are best throwing into tight windows. Didn’t expect to see Justin Fields there.
⚡️ Austin Ekeler isn’t going down without a fight. Great article.
Every week, Matthew Freedman publishes a piece highlighting some of his favorite fantasy plays. Naturally, this piece is called “Freedman’s Favorites”. We told him to get more creative, to which he answered with a resounding “No”. Anyway, here are his favorites for Week 16…
🌟 Josh Allen (Bills) at Chargers
- Bills: -12.5
- O/U: 44
- TT: 28.25
Life has not been easy on Allen this year. He’s No. 2 in the league with 14 INTs, and he lost OC Ken Dorsey (dismissed) after Week 10.
And yet Allen has played good ball: He’s No. 3 in QBR (69.7, per ESPN) and No. 4 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.148, per RBs Don’t Matter). For the season, he’s the No. 1 fantasy producer (24.7 FPPG). If the Bills had even just one more win on their record, he would be a legitimate MVP candidate.
He’s still very much “Josh Allen.”
The Chargers are at home and have extra rest off Thursday Night Football, but they could be in disarray after the firing of defensive HC Brandon Staley and DL coach Jay Rodgers following an embarrassing 63-21 loss to the Raiders last week in which the Chargers allowed Day 3 rookie QB Aidan O’Connell to pass for 248 yards and four TDs.
The Chargers are No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (19.0 FPPG).
🌟 Raheem Mostert (Dolphins) vs. Cowboys
- Dolphins: -1.5
- O/U: 51
- TT: 26.25
Despite sharing significant work with explosive rookie RB De’Von Achane, the 31-year-old Mostert has dominated this season.
With 12-plus opportunities in every game this season, Mostert has an elevated floor, and with his high-end efficiency (4.9 yards per carry, 5.5 yards per target) and scoring prowess (league-high 20 TDs from scrimmage), he has a vaulted ceiling.
The Cowboys are No. 32 in defensive rush SR (45.3%) and on back-to-back East Coast games.
🌟 D.J. Moore (Bears) vs. Cardinals
- Bears: -4.5
- O/U: 44.5
- TT: 24.5
Since QB Justin Fields returned to action in Week 11, Moore has 28-330-2 receiving on 40 targets and 3-20-1 rushing in four games. In total, he has 881 yards and eight TDs from scrimmage in his nine full games with Fields.
The Cardinals are No. 32 in defensive dropback SR (51.8%).
🌟 Amari Cooper (Browns) at Texans
- Browns: -2
- O/U: 40
- TT: 21
Cooper exited Week 13 early with a concussion and rib injury, but he returned to action in Week 14, and in his two games since with QB Joe Flacco, he has a 98% route rate and 23% target rate, which he has leveraged into 11-186-1 receiving on 22 targets.
Since joining the Browns last year, Cooper has 8.8 yards per target in HC Kevin Stefanski’s offense despite dealing with inconsistent and mediocre QB play. He’s still one of the league’s best WRs.
Given that the Texans play sides in their defensive backfield, Cooper is likely to match up most with CB Steven Nelson, who has allowed 9.8 yards per target this year (per PFF).
🌟 Evan Engram (Jaguars) vs. Bengals
- Jaguars: Pick’Em
- O/U: 43
- TT: 21.5
After scoring zero TDs in Weeks 1-12, Engram has hit paydirt thrice and added 205 yards on 27 targets in three games since Week 13, when WR Christian Kirk (groin, IR) suffered a season-ending injury.
The Buccaneers are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (10.7) and could be without SS Ryan Neal (hip), who missed last week.
