Rise and shine! It's Rhamondre Stevenson SZN y'all...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by PFF.
- Sometimes you're lucky and good.
- Utilization Report. Seahawks, Cardinals & Dolphins, oh my!
- Premiere Matchup. The game of the year.
- Regression Session. A closer look at two elite RBs.
- The Fantasy Life Podcast is LIVE
- Hope you didn't wait on a QB this year...
- It's 10/12. Take it away, Dwain McFarland...
Rhamondre Stevenson truthers always knew that he would eventually take over the Patriots' backfield. It was only a matter of time before the dreaded New England running-back-by-committee seas parted for the chosen one.
- James White was in the mix for the passing down role but retired in August.
- Ty Montgomery was playing on passing downs in Week 1 but was hurt and placed on IR.
- Damien Harris was rotating with Stevenson on early-down attempts but suffered a hamstring injury in Week 5 and is expected to miss multiple games.
While we could see J.J. Taylor or Pierre Strong Jr. more involved until Harris comes back, Bill Bellicheck seems to love every aspect of Stevenson's game, and we could see a workload similar to Week 5.
Stevenson's talent profile matches the kind words of his coach (minimum 30 rush attempts or 50 routes):
- PFF rush grade: 89.0 (3rd)
- PFF receiving grade: 71.9 (4th)
- Missed tackles forced per attempt: 25% (9th)
- Average yards after contact: 3.24 (2nd)
- 10-plus yard carries: 16% (6th)
While Stevenson got some fortuitous bounces to arrive at this every-down opportunity, he has also performed at a high level. He was already out-snapping Harris in a lead role.
Now he gets a favorable schedule over the next several weeks, starting against a Browns defense that he shredded last season without Damien Harris in the lineup.
Wheels up, y'all. We have a top-six RB on our hands until Harris returns — and maybe, just maybe, he keeps it all to himself for the rest of the season.
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Volume is king in fantasy football and sports betting, and this report will help you understand which players are due more or less according to their roles. Each week, Dwain dives deep into the data, so you don't have to.
Late Waiver Wire Looks
🤩 RB – Kenneth Walker III
With Rashaad Penny out for the season, the rookie will immediately step into a role similar to Dameon Pierce as the early-down back. After Penny left the game in Week 5, Walker handled 88% of the snaps and 100% of the rushing attempts. He also played one of three LDD snaps.
Walker has demonstrated a high-end skill set on his limited opportunities in 2022.
- Missed tackles forced per attempt: 0.37 (+0.20 vs. NFL average)
- 10-plus yard runs: 13% (+1.5)
- Targets per route run: 23% (+5)
Walker wasn’t a receiving option coming out of college, but he is earning targets, and the Seahawks have been giving him LDD work all season. Based on this data, there is a chance he will grow into more passing-down work, which would make him a bonafide high-end RB1.
Walker is available in 54% of Yahoo! leagues and 52% of ESPN leagues. He is the No. 1 waiver priority of the 2022 season, so get your chips in the middle of the table.
- FAB: 90-100%
📊 WR – Rondale Moore
The Cardinals are moving Moore all over the field, and he has a 19% target share in his first two games back. DeAndre Hopkins will only miss one more game, which likely means the second-year receiver will only play in three-wide receiver sets soon.
Fortunately, the Cardinals use the eighth-mostmost three and four-wide receiver groupings (73%). This has been despite a depleted WR room and Moore remains a young talent we shouldn’t hesitate to put our chips on. Talent always has outs and Arizona's offense could take flight once fully healthy.
Moore is available in over 80% of Yahoo! and ESPN leagues.
- FAB: 20-30%
📈 WR – Alec Pierce
Pierce has a 20% TPRR and out-targeted Michael Pittman Jr. in Week 5 (26%) despite running fewer routes (74%). Over the last three games, the splits between the two have been interesting.
Parris Campbell continued to work ahead of Pierce, but it is only a matter of time before the rookie earns a full-time role. His 2.06 YPRR is over three-times as high as Campbell’s (0.60).
The Colts are one of the worst offenses in the NFL, with only 11% of their drives converting to TDs (31st). However, their trailing scripts keep them throwing the ball. They rank 11th in dropbacks per game (41.4), which means more than one WR can survive.
Pierce is available in 92% of Yahoo! leagues.
- FAB: 10-20%
Upgrades
💪 RB – Raheem Mostert
Mostert bogarted 72% and 69% of snaps in the last two contests. Most importantly, he surpassed Chase Edmonds for the passing down work, including 90% of the two-minute offense work.
The 30-year-old RB is a low-end RB2 moving forward and if the Dolphins get back to their high-scoring ways, he might be a high-end RB2. He is available in 30% of Yahoo! Leagues.
🎰 WR – Isaiah McKenzie
McKenzie missed Week 5 (concussion), but he could be the full-time slot option moving forward.
Khalil Shakir scored 16.5 points in that role in Week 5. There is a chance the two split work similarly to how things were with Jamison Crowder. However, it is a gamble worth taking, given the Bills’ offense. If he takes over all of the slot work, he becomes a high-end WR4 with upside.
McKenzie is available in half of Yahoo! leagues, so give your waiver wire a look.
⬆️ WR – Michael Gallup
Gallup has hit 85% and 89% route participation levels in his first two games back – an encouraging development.
In Week 5, he came up small in the box score with 8.4 fantasy points but registered a powerful target share at 33% and looked good doing it.
Gallup is a low-end WR3 moving forward. He is still available in 49% of Yahoo! leagues.
Buy Low
👛 RB – Travis Etienne
Etienne is the lead passing-down option and owns a 65% snap share when the team trails by four-plus points. In Week 5, he saw a season-high route participation rate (57%) and rush share (43%).
Yes, James Robinson has looked good, but Etienne has been better in many ways and seems to be gaining confidence. He is currently a high-end RB3, but the explosive pass-catching back has gobs of untapped upside. Talent always has outs, y'all.
Now is the time to pounce and make an offer for the former Clemson Tiger.
🎱 Was it a good year to wait on QB? Don't count on it.
🤖 In a different simulation, some of these WRs would crush. No, really...
🔥 Hopefully, Patrick Mahomes is this fired up for Buffalo. Sounds intimidating.
🚀 This rookie RB is ready for takeoff. Marcas & Dwain break it down on the Fantasy Life podcast.
🥇 This RB is still No. 1 in points per play. Can his offense help him out?
🔎 Geno Smith is playing like an elite QB. If you need more evidence, here it is.
🔮 The RB position favors the young in real life and fantasy. Hello, Bijan.
🚚 Dameon Pierce can't be stopped. No, seriously, defenders can't take him down.
😮 Wow, this has never happened before! Can this TE keep it going?
Each week we'll feature a premiere matchup on the slate and break it down from all angles. Today, new Fantasy Life contributor Chris Allen tackles the tilt between the Bills and Chiefs.
A rematch of last year’s AFC divisional round is the definition of a premier matchup. But I get to be a bystander this time. As a Bengals fan, I nervously weighed Cincinnati’s odds against Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen in January. Today, I’m Rob Lowe. I can relax watching this one, but the Bills genuinely have my attention heading into Sunday.
Buffalo is playing like a Super Bowl contender. Their 18.8 net yards per drive (the difference between their offensive and defensive yards gained or allowed) is first in the league, per Football Outsiders. For reference, there’s only one other team above 10.0. They’ve averaged 43.1 offensive yards per drive, and part of their success has been due to Allen’s success when they need it the most.
Kevin is right to wonder if the dreaded ‘R’(regression) word will come for Allen. His 0.8 EPA per dropback on third and fourth down not only leads the league but is a career-high for Allen. Even wilder is his play volume in this particular scenario.
You’d think a team ranking top-10 in average yards per drive and plays per game would often find themselves in obvious passing situations. Not Buffalo. Their 68 attempts on third or fourth downs are sub-average (70.1). However, their 41.2% conversion rate ranks second. Allen has converted more first downs with his legs than Jonathan Taylor and Aaron Jones combined. Plus, it’s not like they’ll have much stopping them on Sunday afternoon.
When it comes to regression, it pays to be ahead of the curve. Each week on Regression Session, Jonathan will give you actionable insights on trends that are unlikely to continue so you can act before your leaguemates.
📈 Positive Regression - Jonathan Taylor
Last year’s RB1 has failed to live up to expectations so far. In Weeks 1-4 he finished as a top-24 RB in half PPR scoring just once and then missed Week 5 with an ankle injury. Many Jonathan Taylor managers are in a full blown panic and worried their fantasy season may be over before it begins.
There are some valid reasons for concern (injury and team struggles) but Taylor still has an elite workload when on the field. He is currently the RB5 in expected fantasy points per game and continues to dominate the high value touches, with 85% of the Colt’s carries inside the 10 yard line.
It is also easy to forget that Taylor got off to a slow start last season before emerging as a league winner over the second half of the season. This isn’t guaranteed to repeat but is a great reminder that a slow start can turn around, even if it doesn't seem likely at the moment.
There are very few buy-low opportunities for elite RBs so it is worth at least checking in with the Jonathan Taylor manager in your league.
📉 Negative Regression - Austin Ekeler
Anyone who has rostered Austin Ekeler this year knows just how up and down his season has been. His weekly finishes in half PPR scoring have been: 28th, 9th, 29th, 1st, and 1st.
While Ekeler managers may be riding high after the past two weeks, his role hasn’t really changed when compared to the first three weeks of the season. What has changed is that he is averaging 8 yards per carry (vs. 2.5 YPC in Weeks 1-3) and he has scored 5 total touchdowns in the last two weeks.
This level of production is unsustainable, particularly when we account for the fact that the Chargers have committed to using multiple backs. As a result, Ekeler has handled just 33% of the Charger’s carries inside the 10 yard line.
Although Ekeler is likely to regress from his recent performances, he should continue to provide massive weekly upside so you should only consider selling high for a truly great offer.
unliiiiiiiimited twitter.com/mikeklis/statu…
— Andy Holloway (@andyholloway)
Oct 11, 2022
