Remember when Randy Moss fell to the 21st pick in the draft??? Lmao.
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter:
- Allen Robinson Has a New Home.
- Five Dynasty Tips from Ian.
- Mock Draft: Picks 12 to 14
- It's 4/19. Take it away, Dwain McFarland...
The Rams and Steelers have reached a trade agreement for WR Allen Robinson, and the veteran will be headed to Pittsburgh, assuming he passes his physical.
Trade terms agreement:
🏈Steelers get WR Allen Robinson and a 7th-round pick (No. 251).
🏈Rams receive 7th-round pick (No. 234).
Rams pay $10.25 million of Robinson’s salary; Steelers pay remaining $5 million. Robinson is scheduled to be in Pittsburgh for a physical Wednesday.
❓ Is Robinson capable of a bounce-back season in Pittsburgh?
Robinson delivered a WR9 finish, averaging 16.4 fantasy points per game in 2020, but things deteriorated quickly. In 2021, his average dropped to 7.1 points, but ankle and hamstring injuries plus a trade to the Rams gave fantasy managers hope — making him a fifth-to-sixth-round selection in drafts last summer.
Unfortunately, the 10-year veteran wasn't able to turn things around, averaging 8.5 points over 10 contests while registering career lows in multiple areas:
- Yards per route run (YPRR): 0.93
- Targets per route run (TPRR): 14%
- PFF receiving grade: 64.8
Since 2011, all of those marks graded outside of WR5 territory.
We have seen a few star veterans like Roddy White, Emmanuel Sanders and A.J. Green battle their way back to WR3 and WR4 territory after similar dips. However, they were exceptions, and we don't have any examples of players returning from this type of downturn to deliver high-end WR2 or WR1 seasons since 2011.
We could see Robinson transition to a full-time slot role, where we have seen players like Larry Fitzgerald and Reggie Wayne experience a late-career resurgence. As an intermediate chain-mover, Robinson could outperform his late-round ADP, but it is still hard to envision much of a ceiling with Diontae Johnson, Pat Freiermuth and George Pickens also vying for targets with a questionable QB in Kenny Pickett.
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📋 The Chiefs have a new clipboard holder. He was a first-rounder at one time.
🛬 Dalvin Cook could be on the move? We wouldn't mind this landing spot.
🌷 This WRs hype is in full bloom. We had to, sorry.
👀 Hendon Hooker over Will Levis? Are you buying into the Hooker hype?
🙏 Damar Hamlin announces his comeback. We need more awareness.
🏈 The old Broncos' ball boy. He is now a head coach.
Dynasty leagues can be some of the most rewarding fantasy leagues, but you gotta stay on top of your game! Ian breaks down some general tips to help you outkick the coverage of your competition...
One form of fantasy continues to attract true diehards. The real sickos. The sort of people who refuse to take days off because deep down inside, they are terrified that their competition might not be affording them the same break.
I’m talking about dynasty leagues: The deepest, most time-consuming, all-encompassing … and, ultimately, rewarding form of fantasy football out there.
What follows are five general tips for anybody looking to join their first dynasty league this offseason. Check out the dynasty section of FantasyLife.com for rookie profiles and more long-term content.
🥇 1. Triple-check your league rules
Wonky league settings are incredibly prominent in dynasty leagues. Whether it’s Superflex, TE premium or some other madness, scoring settings and overall roster construction should influence your draft strategy as much, if not more, than simply evaluating players.
Take Superflex or two-QB leagues, for example. It’s all fun and games punting the position in order to load up on dope skill-position talents until you’re entering Week 1 with Gardner Minshew and Jacoby Brissett under center.
Early-round ADP will naturally be sharper than what’s available in the later rounds: Don’t feel the need to be a hero and go too far against the grain early on purpose, or (even worse) simply because you failed to understand exactly what type of league you signed up for.
🥈 2. Age matters, but varies by position
Elderly QBs and TEs are far more likely to keep on keeping on than RBs and WRs playing into their 30s.
Seriously: Having Leonardo DiCaprio’s 25-or-under dating outlook makes a lot of sense when applied to dynasty RBs.
% of top-12 fantasy producers by age over the last 10 years (PPR per game ranks, minimum 8 games)
I broke down all the intricacies of how age and experience impact a player’s fantasy production; long story short is that younger is generally better – especially for RBs and WRs, who arguably rely on their pure athleticism more than any other position.
🥉 3. Draft capital is your friend
History tells us the higher a player is drafted, the better chance they have of putting up big-time fantasy numbers relative to later-round picks.
% of fantasy football top-12 QB/TE and top-24 RB/WR by draft round regardless of experience 2013-2022 (PPR per-game scoring, min. 8 games)
70%+ of top-performing fantasy scorers were originally drafted inside the top-three rounds across all positions
Over 70% of top-performing fantasy scorers across all positions were originally drafted inside the top-three rounds regardless of experience. Madness.
Rookies don’t usually put up top-performing fantasy numbers, but the ones who do are even more condensed into the first three rounds. Draft capital is a rather fantastic tool for evaluating NFL prospects of all shapes and sizes; be careful about chasing late-round exceptions to the rule.
Fantasy Life's Eliot Crist just released V2.0 of his first-round mock draft that considers many factors, including betting odds and teams' drafting history, while pulling the curtain up on draft rumors and smoke screens. Today we are spotlighting his No. 12, 13, and 14 picks.
12. Houston Texans: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
- Rookie Rank: WR1, Superflex: 5th overall
If the WR rookie super model has shown us anything, it's that this is a home run pick for the Texans. Smith-Njigba is Dwain’s clear-cut WR1, and for great reason.
This is a dream fantasy landing spot with both short- and long-term upside. The Texans, despite lacking an experienced quarterback, boast the draft's premier pure passer in Bryce Young, and with no major contenders in Smith-Njigba's path for securing the team's target lead, he is poised for success.
The Texans' current WR roster, featuring Robert Woods, Nico Collins, Noah Brown, and (hopefully) John Metchie III, is arguably the weakest in the league, creating an ideal scenario for Smith-Njigba to claim a top-15 workload from the outset.
Smith-Njigba is currently +400 to be drafted by the Texans, his shortest odds, and -175 to be the first WR off the board. While both hit in this mock draft, there is enough debate with this WR class among NFL executives that neither bet offers value.
📣 Summary from The Beast
Get the rest of The Beast from The Athletic, which includes 401 scouting reports and 1,893 player rankings for only $1.99/month.
A two-year starter at Ohio State, Smith-Njigba was the slot receiver in head coach Ryan Day’s multiple-spread offense and made a living inside (88.3 percent of his snaps the last two seasons came in the slot).
Although 2022 was basically a lost year for him because of his hamstring injury, he had a prolific 2021 season with the Big Ten single-season record for receiving yards (1,606) and a memorable Rose Bowl performance with an NCAA bowl-record 347 receiving yards.
He doesn’t have the speed to run away from coverage, but he skillfully throttles his speeds and uses different sink/body techniques to leverage defensive backs out of position and create pockets of separation. Overall, Smith-Njigba isn’t an elite size/speed athlete and won’t be an ideal fit for every role, but he is a crafty route runner with smooth short-area quickness and tracking talent to be a surehanded target. He projects as an early NFL starter who is at his best in the slot.
13. New York Jets: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
The Jets bring New Jersey-native Skoronski home to help protect their soon-to-be QB, Aaron Rodgers.
The Jets are playing in a two-year window, and with plenty of future draft capital likely heading to Green Bay, hitting on this pick at a premium position is critical to Gang Green's future.
The books agree that the Jets are on the hunt for help on the offensive line, as they are currently -200 to draft an offensive lineman with their first-round pick, which is worth betting on FanDuel.
With 38-year-old Duane Brown and oft-injured Mekhi Becton the projected starters, both tackles have major question marks. In addition, last year's major free-agent signing, Laken Tomlinson, was a complete bust in his inaugural campaign in New York.
Skoronski should bring much-needed versatility to the Jets' offensive front.
He tested as an elite athlete and dominated in the Big Ten, but his fourth-percentile arm length has some teams questioning if he is a guard or tackle at the next level.
The Jets need both, so he fits in perfectly.
14. New England Patriots: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
The Patriots need help on the offensive side of the ball, with WR and OL being the two positional favorites for the team’s first selection. Jones has a draft prop line of 13.5, so this is the exact range he is expected to hear his name called.
Jones is said to be higher on NFL team boards than the media assumes. ESPN’s Jordan Reid says, “Don't be surprised if Jones is the top offensive tackle off the board. I continue to hear his name in this range. Jones might have the most upside of the tackles in this class.”
women literally only want one thing and it's thousands of fans booing roger goodell before he announces the first pick in the 2023 NFL draft
