🎉 We Have Saturday Football!!!

The NFL didn't do the Bengals any favors, but we will never forget their class...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Matt Waldman's RSP:

• Dwain's Saturday Rundown.
• Rankings Update. No-name RBs assemble!!!
• Bets from the group chat. They're Peaking.
• Game Previews. More Saturday goodies...
• DFS Building Blocks. Two Elite Duos
• Its 1/7. Take it away Dwain McFarland...

We have meaningful Saturday football in Week 18 thanks to two matchups with playoff implications...

🧐 Chiefs at Raiders +8.5 (52.5)

The Chiefs can ensure the No. 1 seed in the AFC along with a bye in the first round of the playoffs. Normally this would also secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, but this year the AFC championship game could land at a neutral site if two criteria are met.

1. Kansas city faces an opponent that played fewer games (Buffalo or Cincinnati), AND
2. Buffalo or Cincinnati could have been the No. 1 seed in a full season

If the Chiefs win tomorrow, they would lock up home-field advantage against everyone except the Bills, provided Buffalo defeats New England on Sunday. However, the Bengals could force a neutral field Championship game with a victory and a Chiefs loss.

The Chiefs will be without Skyy Moore, but Mecole Hardman was activated off of IR this week, and we could see him in a limited role.

Hardman was heating up before his Week 9 injury, delivering WR33, WR28, WR3 and WR6 finishes thanks to a key role inside the 10-yard line, where he sported a 30% TPRR. There is a chance Hardman is on a snap count, but he never eclipsed a 60% route participation during his hot streak – he can score points on reduced opportunities in this offense. If the fourth-year WR suits up, consider him a boom-bust WR4 with big-play potential and TD upside.

If Hardman can’t go, we could see Kadarius Toney in a larger role. Over the last two games, Toney has registered 30% and 33% route participation, but with Moore out, he could push that number over 50%. Toney is second on the team in TPRR since returning from injury in Week 15  (26%). Toney is currently a boom-bust WR5, but he moves into the WR4 range and has multiple-TD upside without Hardman active.

Josh Jacobs is questionable due to a hip issue, but he was also listed as a DNP for personal reasons – so there is a chance he plays. He needs 151 yards to break the Raiders' single-season rushing record held by Marcus Allen. Jacobs walloped the Chiefs for 154 yards in Week 5. He is a high-end RB1 that might have extra motivation if he suits up.

If Jacobs can’t go, Zamir White would move into low-end RB2 territory.

🧐 Titans at Jaguars -6.5 (39.5)

This is essentially the first week of the playoffs for the Titans and the Jaguars. The winner of the game punches their ticket for post-season play.

The last time these two teams met in Week 14, Trevor Lawrence obliterated the Titans with 368 yards and three TDs. Tennessee allows the most passing yards per game (291) in non-overtime play and have given up 300+ in eight of 16 games. Lawrence upgrades to mid-range QB1 status and has the potential to finish as the top fantasy option on the weekend.

Not only does Lawrence have a great matchup, but his two leading WRs also have big incentive bonuses on the line in Week 18.

• Christian Kirk sits at 78 receptions for 1,009 yards; he has $500,000 bonuses at 80, 90 and 100 receptions AND at 1,100 and 1,200 receiving yards.
• Zay Jones sits at 78 receptions for 802 yards; he has a $250,000 bonus at 80 receptions and a $500,000 bonus at 900 yards.

Kirk’s receiving prop is set at 59.5 receiving yards, and Jones is at 55.5 yards on BetMGM. A parlay including the over on Lawrence, Kirk, and Jones could make for a fun sweat, and there is a logical path to get there. Kirk is my WR12, and Jones is my WR22 this weekend.

While the Titans are terrible against the pass, they allow the second-fewest rushing attempts (23) and yards per game (80) in non-overtime play. Since Week 2, no RB has eclipsed 66 yards against the Titans, which is why Dalton Kates likes the under for Travis Etienne.

Treylon Burks is questionable due to a groin injury. He began the week as a full participant but downgraded to limited on Thursday and didn’t participate on Friday. If the rookie WR can’t go, it would be a big blow to Tennessee’s passing attack – and narrows the paths for this game to shootout. Burks is a boom-bust WR3 if he suits up.

For more coverage of the Saturday slate, be sure to check out the Game Previews below...

😤 Already plotting your Fantasy League revenge? Cheat code: Matt Waldman

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Going with your gut can only get you so far. Use our industry-leading rankings to gain an edge over your league mates. Need help? Don't worry, Dwain has you covered.

📈 Risers

📈 RB – Jonathan Williams

Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson are out this weekend. In Week 17, Williams was the clear No. 2 behind Robinson, with Gibson out.

Williams dominated the passing-down work, which creates a scenario where he serves as an every-down back. Jaret Patterson will battle for touches and could eat into the early-down snaps, but he doesn’t carry the same bell-cow potential.

Williams upgrades to RB3 status but carries high-end RB2 upside. 

📈 RB – Corey Clement

James Conner won’t play in Week 18. Last weekend, after Conner left the game, Clement took over an every-down role. Keaontay Ingram was limited to only one out of 17 snaps.

Kliff Kingsbury indicated the two backs would form a rotation this weekend, but the better bet is Clement, who has a history of handling passing-down duties. That provides the journeyman with a path to dominate touches – which he will need against a 49ers defense that allows the second-fewest rushing yards per game (78) in non-overtime play.

Clement has a shot at earning significant volume this weekend, but the matchup keeps him from climbing out of RB3 territory.

📈 RB – Elijah Mitchell

Mitchell will play this weekend and draws a juicy matchup as 14-point favorites over a banged-up Cardinals team. The second-year RB averaged 38% of the rushing attempts in his two healthy games with Christian McCaffrey. In Week 10, that led to 18 attempts for 89 yards.

If this game script goes how Vegas expects, Mitchell could be a busy man in the second half of the game, providing him with RB2 upside.

📉 Fallers 

📉 TE – George Kittle

Deebo Samuel will return to action in Week 18, which could end Kittle’s recent hot streak. Over the last four contests, he has a 24% TPRR and is the No. 2 TE in fantasy, averaging 18.6 points. However, Kittle’s TPRR drops to 16% in games with Samuel.

Thanks to his talent profile, Kittle still carries high-end TE1 upside, but his floor takes a hit.

👀 Monitoring

👀 All – Chargers

The Chargers began the week as three-point favorites over the Broncos in Denver. However, Brandon Staley has mentioned the possibility of resting starters if the Bengals defeat the Ravens on Sunday, which caused the line to swing in the opposite direction.

Cincinnati is a nine-point favorite over Baltimore, who will again be without Lamar Jackson. With the Chargers playing in the late window, they will know the outcome of the Ravens game.

All Chargers players have moved down the ranks with an expectation that players get rest at some point in the game. However, if the Ravens pull off an upset, they move back up the ranks.

🥇 This Lion could set a new record. Sounds like he will get plenty of chances.

🎥 Want to replicate the NFL Redzone studio? You need lots of green.

 🧗‍♂️ Amari Cooper is could reach a career-high. He cares.

🚀 Mike Evans had a huge championship weekend. How does he stack up?

🍀 Winning big fantasy tournaments isn't easy. Chaos is the only certainty.

💰 Speaking of winning big tournaments... Congrats to a great person!

😝 More incentive SZN news. LMAO.

JMToWin is a founder/developer of One Week Season, where we focus not only on preparing you for each unique slate, but also on teaching you the strategies and theories behind winning DFS play. Our team has millions of dollars in net DFS profit, and each week we strive to build the OWS Fam into a leaderboard-crashing unit. Become a part of the OWS Fam with OWS Free!

 😤 Justin Jefferson + Dalvin Cook

• COST: $16.4K DK // $17.0K FD

Story:

“Dalvin hits the way he has this season”

Why it works:

Dalvin’s rostership projection is currently 18.4%, but nearly every one of those Dalvin rosters will NOT have Justin Jefferson.

And yet, Jefferson (as we’ve explored a number of times recently) has scored 33+ DK points in three of the four games in which Dalvin went for 26+.

In other words : if Dalvin hits the way he has most often this season (in “Vikings smash” games that lead to Jefferson hitting as well), these Dalvin rosters won’t be separating from the field, as they’ll be getting “these points” while the Jefferson rosters get “those points.”

By playing these two together, “a nice game from Dalvin” could easily mean you get one-up on the rest of the Dalvin rosters, while also having a nice head start on the rest of the Jefferson rosters.

How it works:

Because of the salary spent here and the clear lead you’re gaining on a massive chunk of the field if this block hits (with Dalvin // Jefferson combining for around 40%-owned in projections, and these two likely to be on very few rosters together), you’re in a really nice position if this block hits.

At the same time, the chances of these two massively separating from all the non-Dalvin/Jefferson rosters are somewhat slim (i.e., you’re likelier to get 3.8x to 4x your combined salary spent if everything comes together than you are to get, say, 4.5x+), which means I would still want to be hunting for at least one other really nice angle or edge on a Dalvin/Jefferson build.

 😤 Jalen Hurts + AJ Brown

• COST: $16.2K DK // $17.3K FD

Story:

“The Eagles lean on Hurts to throw the ball a bit more than they lean on him to run”

Why it works:

Hurts will be somewhat popular, and AJB will be somewhat popular, but this pairing never draws much combinatorial ownership, and it always has potential to separate from other salary structures.

How it works:

Against Washington (the first time), Pittsburgh, and Tennessee, the Eagles went proactively pass-heavy, and in two of those three games they kept Hurts’ rushing in check.

In those games, Hurts posted DK scores of 30.6 // 28.4 // 37.4, while Brown went for 19.5 // 42.6 // 34.9.

I’ll do the math for you: two of those games went for 71+ combined points between these two, and they cost $16.2k in salary this week (a 220-point pace from two of your highest-priced guys — a tremendous return).

The Eagles will almost certainly lean on their running backs a bit more than normal in this spot, but it’s also reasonable to expect them to lean on Hurts to throw the ball more than they lean on him to run, opening the door for another game in which he and his favorite wide receiver hook up for some big plays.

Our resident betting sharps at Fantasy Life have a group chat. Lucky for you, they are leaking the alpha. Here's what Jordan came up with for Week 18...All Lines on BetMGM.

💰 Jaguars -6.5 

A lot of success in life and in the NFL can be traced back to timing, and currently, everything is lining up perfectly for this young Jaguars team. 

They're 6-2 over their last 8 games, and Trevor Lawrence is playing like a true superstar QB. Travis Etienne is showing the upside and dynamic athletic ability that fantasy drafters knew he had as a rookie. AND, on top of that, they have 3 legit receiving threats in Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram.

On the other side, the Titans have Derrick Henry...not great. 

This line should be above a TD, and that's where I feel comfortable betting this to. 

 💰 Top props of the week:

• Patrick Mahomes Over 325.5 Passing Yards
• Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 Passing TDs (.5 unit play)
• Trevor Lawrence Over 15.5 Rushing Yards
• Derrick Henry Over 15.5 Receiving Yards

We have two great Saturday games on deck that both have playoff implications. Matt LaMarca & Chris Allen from our game previews team are here to dive DEEP into these two matchups. 

A true win and you're in situation. Take it away Chris...

🔥 Titans @ Jags -6.5

I can believe we’re at this point. Tennessee was last year’s No. 1 seed and they’ve taken other playoff-bound teams (Giants, Chiefs, and Bengals) to the brink throughout the season. Meanwhile, the Jaguars had all the hype coming into the season and a second-year leap for Trevor Lawrence was an underlying requirement for fans. So again, I can see how we got to this point. But the outlook for each team has shifted over the last few weeks.

Joshua Dobbs will be under center for the Titans. We saw his debut last week, which came with mixed results. The offense, playing without Derrick Henry, averaged 24.8 yards per drive. It’s still worse than the Texans (25.3), but an improvement on Malik Willis’s average of 22.7, even with Henry active the week before. Regardless, the offense was more fantasy-friendly.

Tennessee’s PROE climbed from -24% in Week 16 to -9% on Thursday night. The added volume gave us our first Treylon Burks highlight video in a while and a passing touchdown to Robert Woods. Dobbs could at least follow the offensive game plan and target Dallas’ weak links on defense for big gains, giving him a leg up on Willis. As a result, his competency gives the Titans a fighting chance against Jacksonville’s secondary.

The Jaguars have been lucky to face Houston and the Zach Wilson/Chris Streveler Jets over the last two weeks. Otherwise, we wouldn’t know they had issues. After those games, they’re second in dropback success rate. However, if you zoom out to their last six games, they fall to 16th. 

CeeDee Lamb (7-126-0) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (12-114-2) torched them in their matchups. It lifts the floor of Woods and Austin Hooper, who led the team in slot targets. But we all know who everyone’s watching in this game.

Editors note: LaMarca's favorite bet for this game is:

Henry is off the injury report and ready to help punch the Titans’ ticket into the playoffs. His return relegates Hassan Haskins to our dynasty benches, as Henry’s been the engine of the Titans’ offense in previous matchups

In his last six games against Jacksonville, he’s averaged 135.3 yards and 1.8 touchdowns. With the Jaguars ranking 17th in rushing success rate allowed and meeting the league average in explosive runs allowed over the last month (11), Henry would be the force driving the Titans into the postseason.

For Jacksonville’s offense, it’s simple: let Lawrence do his thing. Since Week 14, he’s fourth in EPA per play. And, despite playing in a rainstorm throughout most of Week 16, he’s fifth in adjusted completion percentage over the same span. Tennessee might be getting back two key defenders to help with their pass rush, but I’m not as concerned.

Lawrence’s innate pocket-management skills are already at a pro level. He’s taken three sacks on 51 pressures across his last four games. For context, Russell Wilson has hit the dirt 13 more times than Lawrence but pressured just one fewer time. With the sophomore passer’s ability to avoid the rush, we could see the passing game back in Week 18.

Keenan Allen (9-86-0) and Lamb (14-100-0) had their way against the Titans in Weeks 15 and 17. As a result, the matchup lends itself to Christian Kirk, who has the highest target rate from the slot, and Evan Engram, with his team-leading 2.43 YPRR from the interior. But let’s not forget about Zay Jones. The popular fantasy option for a few weeks has been Lawrence’s most-trusted receiver when under pressure. So while Kirk and Engram will garner the high-percentage looks, Jones will be on the end of the explosive attempts downfield.

This has massive seeding implications for the entire AFC. Take it away LaMarca...

 🔥 Chiefs @ Raiders +8.5

The Chiefs still have everything left to play for heading into their final game of the year.

They have already clinched the AFC West for the seventh straight year, and they’ll be making their eighth straight trip to the playoffs. However, they still have a chance for the No. 1 seed. They need to win their final game to have any shot of that happening, and they would need some additional help from the Bills.

There is still plenty of uncertainty surrounding the schedule in Buffalo following last week’s tragic situation with Damar Hamlin. The entire world was shaken up – not just the NFL – so it’s completely understandable if football is the furthest thing from the players’ minds at this point. That said, the Bills would finish with the No. 1 seed if they play and win their final two contests.

The Chiefs should at least begin Week 18 with their starters on the field, including presumed MVP Patrick Mahomes. He’s down to -750 to win the award, and he’s had another phenomenal season.

Editors note: We're on incentives-watch here at Fantasy Life, and this is one of our favorite bets to target for this game. 

He leads the league in both touchdown passes and touchdown rate, and his average of 315.5 passing yards per game also ranks first in the league. Mahomes has also earned the top mark at the position per Pro Football Focus, so it’s pretty hard to knock his credentials.

While he’s on the field, he should have no problem moving the football against the Raiders. They rank dead last in pass defense DVOA, and Mahomes has historically torched the Raiders. He has 11 touchdown passes and zero interceptions in their past three matchups, and he owns a 113.1 Quarterback Rating versus the Raiders for his career.

You wouldn’t expect the Raiders to keep up in this matchup, especially without starting quarterback Derek Carr. However, the team made a major statement last week against the 49ers. They racked up 500 yards of total offense and 34 points in a narrow overtime victory.

That game served as a coming out party for Jarrett Stidham. Stidham was not impressive in limited playing time as a backup in New England, but he had a phenomenal performance against arguably the best defense in football. He racked up 365 yards and three touchdowns, resulting in an average of 9.85 adjusted yards per attempt. Stidham did throw two interceptions, but he ultimately did enough to put his team in a position to win.

Can he do it again this week? The Chiefs are certainly a much easier matchup, and the sharps have shown some interest in the Raiders. They’ve received nearly 90% of the spread dollars as of Wednesday evening, so the pros believe that Stidham and the Raiders can cover this number.

The Chiefs also have a dubious track record as a large favorite. Mahomes is just 12-19-1 against the spread when laying more than a touchdown, including a mark of 1-8 on the road.