âYou miss 100% of the bets you donât make.â - Matthew Freedman
In todayâs Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:
Longshot bet for NFL MVP
Geoffâs favorite Open Championship golfer
Bros be compensating âŠ
Looking for late-round stacks? Check this outâŠ
Itâs 7/19. Take it away, Matthew FreedmanâŠ
Hey yâall. Itâs Matt Freedman. The Oracle: âNo wife, no job, just pure football knowledge.â
Thatâs not entirely true. I have a wife, NBD. And just partial football knowledge. Also, have a job: Iâm now a full-time analyst for Fantasy Life.
As such, Iâm teaming up with Matt McCuen (aka Dead Prez) to launch âBetting Life,â which is exactly what it sounds like: âFantasy Life + Betting.â
Iâll still do fantasy content. I had to take less money to secure this concession -- Matthew Berryâs a real Vito Corleone as a negotiator -- but it was totally worth it. You can find my fantasy rankings on the site.
But most of my time will be spent on making you an offer you canât refuse: Free betting content, like my 2023 Dolphins betting preview.
One bet I like for the Dolphins is QB Tua Tagovailoa to win MVP, which is available at +1600 at BetMGM.
In case youâre unfamiliar with American odds, +1600 means âbet $100 to win $1,600.â
đŹ Tua Tagovailoa MVP
If you look at the past 10 MVP winners -- all of them QBs -- youâll see that, unless a guy has paradigm-shifting rushing ability like Cam Newton (2015) or Lamar Jackson (2019), he needs to be elite in two specific nerdy efficiency metrics.
The first is composite expected points added and completion percentage over expected (EPA + CPOE, via RBs Donât Matter). The second is adjusted yards per pass attempt (AY/A, which was introduced by Bob Carroll, Pete Palmer, and John Thorn in the 1988 classic The Hidden Game of Football).
Last year, Patrick Mahomes was No. 1 in EPA + CPOE and No. 2 in AY/A. The same with Aaron Rodgers in 2021. You get the idea. If a guy is at the top in these metrics, he has a strong chance to win MVP.
Hereâs why I bring this up. Last year, Tua was No. 2 in EPA + CPOE and No. 1 in AY/A.
Translation: Weâve already seen Tua have an MVP-caliber season.
And he did it in his first year in a Shanahan-style system. Normally, QBs struggle in their first year in such a scheme. Think back to Matt Ryan with HC Kyle Shanahan in 2015 or Rodgers with HC Matt LaFleur in 2019. They didnât have great campaigns.
Itâs normally in a QBâs second season in a Shanahan offense that he takes a big step forward. Hence, Ryan and Rodgers winning MVPs in 2016 and 2020. What this theoretically means is that -- as great as he was last year -- Tua could be even better in 2023 in HC Mike McDanielâs offense.
For a QB to get MVP, his team needs to win a lot of games, and because the league is so driven by passing, excellent QB efficiency tends to result in wins. If Tua stays healthy and repeats (or improves upon) his 2022 performance, I expect the Dolphins to win enough games to compete for a top-two seed, which will make Tua live to win the award.
For more bets from everyone on the Betting Life team, check out our 100% FREE bet tracker.
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Outside of one hiccup in Detroit, Matsuyama has been superb with his ball striking since getting over an early season injury. He should also like this yearâs more technical Open setup at Royal Liverpool, which shares similarities with Florida venues like TPC Sawgrass where he finished 5th this season and has three career top 10s.
Seven of the past 11 winners of the Open have been 30 years of age or older, putting the 31-year-old Matsuyama in a prime spot to contend. At 80-1 he looks vastly underpriced and makes for a great long shot, outright target â but is also a player I would not hesitate to target in either the top 20 market (+250) or group betting (Group F, +350) on BetMGM.
Humans are intrinsically flawed creatures, so letâs use that to our advantage. Each week, Cooterdoodle will walk us through the internal mind of a fantasy football player. For better or for worse, letâs get inside those mushy little brains and engage in some mental warfare. Letâs go mental!
đ§ Cognitive Bias #1: Risk Compensation
Before we get too consumed by everything that is fantasy football (too late?), letâs zoom out to get a birdâs eye view of the entire situation.
Iâm serious. Forget about what draft pick you have in your home league for a second. Stop worrying about sleepers for just one f*cking minute and ZOOM OUT!
Okay, good. You can see everything more clearly from up here. So letâs talk about taking risks. We all do it, but we are more likely to be risk-takers if we feel safe. Itâs all about Risk Compensation.
The safer we feel, the bigger the risks we are willing to take.
But the inverse is also true. So when the perceived risk is greater, we tend to be more careful.
If we understand our cognitive biases toward taking risks, we can use them to our advantage.
đ§ So how does this apply to fantasy football?
đ Drafting
If you feel comfortable with your early draft picks, youâre more likely to take riskier picks later in your draft.
We love to talk about drafting in terms of ADP and value, but risk assessment also plays a role in how we pick players. If Iâve drafted Austin Ekeler or Bijan Robinson, Iâm much more comfortable taking a gamble on Alvin Kamara later on.
As you draft, keep your birdâs eye view and remember that weâre all susceptible to the hubris that comes with Risk Compensation.
Iâm not saying that you should avoid risky draft picks, but I do think you should take a moment to ask yourself if itâs truly a risk youâre willing to take.
đ« Trading
When proposing trades throughout the season, keep in mind your leaguemateâs perspective and perceived feelings of safety.
If theyâve been on a losing streak and their risk of coming in last place is steadily increasing, theyâre probably less likely to want to make a trade for your boom/bust player. A guy thatâs safe and secure is much more palatable.
So if your league is being more careful and afraid to trade, itâs nothing personal. Theyâre just captive to the vortex of risk compensation. Try proposing a trade thatâs going to make them feel safer, so theyâre willing to take that risk.
Sure, some people love to hoard their FAAB, but I like to call those people âinactive leaguematesâ.
Donât make fun of the guy who spends 45% of their FAAB in Week 3. They just feel safe enough to take a big risk, thatâs all.
So the next time youâre about to drop a lot of fake dough or draft a super risky player with a really high ceiling and an even lower floor, ask yourself if itâs truly something you want to do or if youâre just a little too comfortable.
đ Is getting your fantasy questions answered something you would be interested in?Weâre only one call away.
Drafting with correlation in mind should always be a part of our plan when we get into a best ball draft. But sometimes, we canât get the best stacking partners for our QB, and our knee-jerk reaction is to draft the last guy on the depth chart. Instead of making that click, Chris walks through what types of offenses to target and a few options for the 2023 season.
I sometimes take correlation too far in best ball drafts.
Iâll pick Jalen Hurts, miss out on all the popular stack options, and talk myself into Quez Watkins being the guy I need for Week 17.
Danny Gray got Day 2 draft capital from Kyle Shanahan? I guess I didnât need to take George Kittle.
The examples are endless, as we can use any training camp clip or bit of coach speak to justify the click. That is, as long as it completes our stack.
But drafting to make pretty, correlated rosters will make us more Schrute Bucks than actual dollars. And late-round picks already feel like dart throws.
So, to maximize both approaches, I looked into the diminishing returns on stacks as we get deeper into the draft.
đ Finding Teams We Should Target
Profiles and archetypes give us a method to follow rather than specific names to target. In short, it makes the analysis more adaptable. Luckily, Underdog had free data from past Best Ball Mania drafts I could use to generate a list of the top five teams with players that hit from the late rounds. From here, we can pull out where our focus should be:
The teams from 2022 alone give us a starting point: nebulous offenses. Arizona traded for Marquise Brown, drafted Trey McBride on Day 2, and had to wait six games for DeAndre Hopkins to return.
We had no idea what Kansas Cityâs offense would look like without Tyreek Hill. Trevor Lawrence got an adult as his head coach.
Other than Kansas City, the vibes surrounding the other squads werenât great. As a result, we got discounts on players with easier paths to routes, touches, and fantasy points. And weâre seeing it happen again this season with early QBs garnering most of our attention.
Vegas team totals have pointed us to the teams we should target, and overall hype for other offenses has pushed them into the spotlight. But we canât always be sure about who will underperform.
A signing, trade, or modest step forward in skills can change our opinion. And after looking at the late-round options, Iâve got three teams worth eyeing in the late rounds instead of trying to build out suboptimal stacks.
đ§ Green Bay Packers
Before you rush to look at Jordan Loveâs lone start against KC in Week 9 of 2021, remember the Chiefsâ defense was seventh in DVOA. They pressured him on 48.7% of his dropbacks. However, the outlook for the Packers after losing their future Hall of Fame QB isnât as bleak.
The offense took a step back in â22 without Davante Adams. Their pass rate over expected (PROE) dropped to -3.0%, matching Loveâs PROE in that Week 9 game two seasons ago. Plus, Love scrambled on 10.3% of his dropbacks, which lifts the floor of the offenseâs efficiency.
With Love continuing to develop, we should look to his pass-catching options outside of the explosive Christian Watson, and oneâs already standing out:
Jayden Reedâs already working as the teamâs starting slot WR after the GM identified a need for a player fitting that role earlier in the offseason. And with Green Bay set to face a defense that allowed the 10th-most QB1 finishes last season in the final week of the tournament, the Packers offer stronger potential in the late rounds than some of the popular options.
Preferred Targets: Jayden Reed (ADP: 169.1), Luke Musgrave (204.4)
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