Delayed a day to avoid a terrible blizzard, Bills-Steelers is now forecast for only a moderate blizzard …
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by Betting Life on YouTube:
- Monday Injuries: A.J. Brown OUT.
- Sportsbooks Win: Cowboys lose …
- Bills vs. Steelers: Unders all around?
- Buccaneers vs. Eagles: Someone’s gotta win.
- It’s 1/15: Take it away, Matthew Freedman …
For the first time ever, and quite by happenstance, we have a two-game Monday postseason slate: Bills-Steelers and Buccaneers-Eagles.
While Matt LaMarca and Geoff Ulrich break down these games later in the newsletter, here are the key injuries to be aware of for each matchup.
❄️ Bills
No. 2 WR Gabe Davis (knee) is out, but the Bills are otherwise healthy on offense.
On defense, they’ll be without No. 3 S Taylor Rapp (calf) and probably No. 1 CB Rasul Douglas (knee, Q), who didn’t practice this week — but the extra day of rest might give him a chance to suit up.
I tentatively project LB Tyrel Dodson (shoulder, Q) to play after returning to practice on Friday.
Given the forecast (snowy, windy, and cold), the loss of a WR and two DBs might not be keenly felt.
⛏️ Steelers
In positive news, the Steelers are getting back both of their starting safeties: SS Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee) and FS Damontae Kazee (suspension). In fact, they have only one player listed out to injury.
The negative news is that the absent player is EDGE T.J. Watt (knee), the team’s most important defender. Perhaps there’s an outside shot that the extra day off will give Watt the time he needs to play, but I highly doubt it.
Without Watt, I like Bills RB James Cook — one of my Wild Card fantasy favorites — to have success against a diminished Steelers DL.
☠️ Buccaneers
Depth DT Mike Greene (calf, IR) is not ready to return, and the Bucs might be without No. 3 LB K.J. Britt (calf, Q) and special teamer/CB Josh Hayes (knee, Q), but there’s only one injury of actual note for the team: QB Baker Mayfield (ribs/ankle, Q).
Last week, Mayfield struggled with a ribs injury that seemed to hinder his performance, and he also picked up an ankle issue. I fully expect him to play, but I have downgraded him a little based on his multiple injuries, his Week 18 form, and the fact that he didn’t get in a full practice.
🦅 Eagles
It’s not all bad news. After missing last week, WR DeVonta Smith (ankle), RB D'Andre Swift (illness), and No. 1 CB Darius Slay (knee) all practiced fully every day.
And QB Jalen Hurts (finger) got in two full sessions on Friday and Saturday.
But it’s also not all good news. No. 1 WR A.J. Brown (knee) is out, and the Eagles will be thin in the secondary without No. 3 S Sydney Brown (knee) and likely FS Reed Blankenship (groin, Q), who missed every day of practice.
Given that the Eagles are without their top pass catcher and probably two key backend defenders, the Bucs are one of my favorite Wild Card bets.
Check out More of Freedman’s Best Bets!
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🧱 The world’s best betting system: Fade Clay?
We might not get snowmaggedan, but the Steelers and Bills will still be dealing with very inclement weather when they this Monday. The Bills are heavy favorites and feature a perennial MVP candidate in Josh Allen at QB. The Steelers are set to start QB Mason Rudolph for the fourth week in a row. Can Pittsburgh make a game of this (or even pull off the upset)? Geoff Ulrich discusses below.
👎 Best Bet: Under 38.5 (-110, bet365)
- Play to: 38.0 (-105)
This number has now settled in at 38.0 to 38.5, but it seems like it’s being propped up by people who think this scheduling move is taking away all the bad weather that was initially in store for this game on Sunday. That doesn’t seem to be the case.
As of writing, the weather forecast reads as follows: Highs of 19 degrees, 1-3 inches of snow, and winds up to 19 mph. Maybe we’re out of public safety territory, but we’re not in shorts-and-shirts or even pants-and-hoodies weather just yet.
We also have two teams with strong under trends going up against each other. Both of these squads went 11-6 to the under this season with the Steelers also posting a 6-2 under record on the road.
I regret missing playing the under on the opening total but with the number popping back above 38.0 we now have another solid opportunity to buy in on the under once again.
⬇️ Top Prop: Josh Allen Under 19.5 Completions (-105, DraftKings)
- Play to: 18.5 (+100)
- Projection: 18.0
This total (19.5) feels high to me. The cold weather alone could have an impact on passing efficiency, but the wind is also still set to be at 15 mph or greater, making it far less likely that either team will be dropping back more than necessary.
You also have the fact that the Bills have moved to more of a run-first philosophy since switching OCs. They ended the season with the sixth-highest rush rate and had the third-highest rush rate over the final three games. That’s led to some extremely low-output games from Josh Allen of late, including a stretch between Weeks 15-17 in which he completed fewer than 16 passes in three straight games.
With our projections also in line and showing a good edge to the under, fading this completion total sets up as one of the more desirable prop plays for me on doubleheader Monday.
🚀 Same-Game Parlay (+1600, DraftKings)
- Under 38.5
- Allen rushing TD
- Allen under 19.5 compilations
- Allen under 1.5 passing TDs
- Jaylen Warren over 19.5 receiving yards
I think an under on the total correlates strongly with Allen passing unders in this spot. Allen has been running more and more as the season has worn on, and that’s included more red zone carries as well. He enters this week having scored a rushing TD in 13 of his past 14 games with 15 TDs overall in that stretch.
The Allen rushing TD prop also correlates nicely with an under on his passing TDs (and completions) — since any Allen rushing score would also mean the Bills are more likely to be ahead and not passing the ball late.
As for Warren, he has averaged 25.4 yards receiving over his past five starts, and with the Steelers as +10 underdogs he could see an uptick in up-tempo snaps near the end of the game.
The final game of Super Wild Card Weekend features the defending NFC Champs traveling to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers. The Eagles were one of the preseason favorites to win the Super Bowl, but a late-season slump has caused their odds to plummet. Can they right the ship against the NFC South champs? Matt LaMarca breaks down his best bets for Buccaneers-Eagles.
💪 Best Bet: Buccaneers +3.0 (-115, DraftKings)
It’s extremely tough to trust the Eagles. For starters, their defense has been abysmal down the stretch. From Week 8 on, they’re 30th in EPA/play defensively. They’ve been a bottom-four unit against the run and pass, and they allowed at least 415 yards in their final two games against the Giants and Cardinals. Neither of those teams had anything to play for, while the Eagles were playing for the NFC East crown.
Additionally, their offense is banged up. A.J. Brown has already been ruled out, while Jalen Hurts and DeVonta Smith are at less than 100%. Hurts didn’t even throw the ball until Friday’s practice, which is not encouraging before a postseason contest.
Finally, the Eagles have been overvalued for most of the year. They have an expected record of just 8.6-8.4, while they’re 16th in yardage differential. The result is an ATS record of 7-8-2, while the Bucs are tied for the second-best mark in football at 11-6.
If Philly’s offense shows any signs of decline without their top receiver and with a banged-up QB, it’s going to be tough for their defense to overcome it. The Bucs aren’t a great team in their own right, but they’re at least healthy. They’ve also been great at stopping the run all season, which matches up well against the Eagles offense.
The key here is getting the full field goal. If this number dips to +2.5, the Bucs become far less appealing. Make sure to grab one of the remaining +3.0s while you still can.
⬆️ Top Prop: Julio Jones Over 1.5 Receptions (-125, DraftKings)
I wouldn’t blame you if you didn’t even know Jones was on the Eagles. That’s how minimal his role has been this season.
However, the absence of Brown changes things. Jones has taken on a larger role down the stretch, posting a target share of at least 11% in three straight games, and he’s going to have even more opportunities with Brown sidelined. Brown leads the team with a 30% target share and 41% air yard share for the season, so there are plenty of additional looks up for grabs.
We have Julio projected for more than three targets and two catches vs. the Buccaneers, so there’s solid value with this number.
🤝 Same-Game Parlay (+672, FanDuel)
- Buccaneers ML
- Jones Over 15.5 receiving yards
- Rachaad White Over 89.5 rushing + receiving yards
- White anytime TD
Instead of playing the Bucs on the spread, I’m going to use the moneyline for the SGP. I’m also going to pair that with the over on Jones’ receiving prop since that grades out extremely well in our projections.
After that, I’m banking on a big game from White. He’s not the most efficient runner in football, but he commands a monster workload on a weekly basis. Whether it’s on the ground or through the air, expect him to find success in this juicy matchup.
