Damar remains in critical condition...
In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by Pristine Auction:
- Week 18 is not normal
- Week 18: Rankings & Tiers
- Bets From the Group Chat. Betting on Baker?
- It's 1/5. Take it away, Peter Overzet.
There's a distinct rhythm to each week of the NFL regular season.
You pick up players on waivers, you make start/sit decisions, you sweat the games, and you watch your record go up or down. Lather, rinse, repeat.
But that's not the case with the final week of the regular season when most fantasy leagues have already been decided.
And it's certainly not the case with Week 18 of the 2022 season, where the specter of Damar Hamlin's health casts a large shadow over the entire league.
Nothing about this week feels normal. We're in a purgatory state.
I could write about rookie QB Sam Howell starting this week for the Commanders, or Kyler Murray getting surgery, or how Justin Jefferson needs 194 yards against Chicago to break Calvin Johnson's single-season receiving yardage record, but it all feels so trivial and meaningless right now.
The last concrete update we got about Damar was that he remains in critical condition with some signs of improvement, but details remain hard to come by.
The league has yet to make a decision on rescheduling the Bills-Bengals game, although many options are discussed.
Joe Burrow spoke to the media yesterday and confirmed what many of us have been wondering: Is it even possible for these guys to be in the right headspace to play this game, much less their respective Week 18 games this Sunday:
Burrow says they haven't been asked about whether they want to play, thinks there would be mixed votes in the Bengals locker room. "Playing is going to be tough, but there's people who want to play too... Getting back to normal is how I deal with these kinds of things"
— Jake Liscow (@JakeLiscow)
Jan 4, 2023
Ultimately, the season will go on. The Week 18 games will be played. Even the Bills-Bengals game might find a date. It's the NFL, after all, and the show must go on.
But that doesn't mean it has to be normal. Nothing about this is.
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Quarterback
🥈 Tier 2 – Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers has eclipsed 20 points only once this season, but the Packers are in a must-win game against the worst-graded PFF coverage. Green Bay carries the fourth-highest team total on the slate against a Lions’ defense, allowing the third-most passing yards in non-overtime play.
The veteran QB had multiple unfortunate INTs inside the red zone the last time these two teams squared off, in a game where he registered his highest passing yardage total of the season (291).
On a weekend where a lot can go wrong for fantasy managers, we know Rodgers will play the whole game, and we could get a shootout.
Rodgers gets an UPGRADE, moving into the mid-range QB1 conversation.
Running Back
🥈 Tier 2 – Jerick McKinnon
McKinnon is the No. 1 scoring RB over the last four games, averaging 25.5 points per contest. During that span, he has seven TDs, with six coming via the air as the primary passing-down back.
The journeyman RB is undoubtedly due for regression – at least in the TD department – but he is the No. 3 target (17%) in the Chiefs’ offense since Week 14.
Kansas City is the No. 1 offense, converting 33% of their drives into TDs, and they rank highly in pass rate in all game scripts.
- Trailing by four-plus points: 74% (5th)
- Within three points: 69% (3rd)
- Leading by four-plus points: 61% (1st)
If any offense can keep McKinnon rolling, it is the Chiefs with the No. 1 seed in the AFC on the line. Kansas City won't have the luxury of seeing how other games play out – they play the Raiders on Saturday and should be in all-in mode.
McKinnon is a low-end RB1 in Week 18.
🥉 Tier 3 – Saquon Barkley
Barkley is the centerpiece of the Giants' offense. No other RB in the league accounts for a larger snap share than Barkley (80%). The fifth-year back ranks third in rushing attempts (295) and fifth in targets (73).
This weekend against Philadelphia represents a great opportunity for New York to rest their star tailback before the playoffs, with the No. 6 seed locked up. Regardless of the game's outcome, the Giants’ seeding can’t change.
Brian Daboll indicated the coaching staff would do what is best for the team, and resting starters is on the table. If Barkley does play, he could be on a snap count, and if the game gets out of hand, he could make an early exit.
If the Giants’ starters play, they will face a stiff challenge against the Eagles, who are in a must-win situation to lock up the No. 1 seed. Philadelphia has been better against the run since adding Ndamukong Suh to the mix.
There are too many ways for Barkley to miss this weekend – he DOWNGRADES to a mid-range RB3 option.
Wide Receiver
🥈 Tier 2 – Christian Kirk
The Jaguars' passing attack has improved dramatically over the last month, but oddly, Kirk hasn’t received an invite to the party. He has WR44, WR20, WR59, and WR64 finishes and averages only 8.6 points with a 19% target share.
Evan Engram (25%) and Zay Jones (21%) have seen an uptick in targets, which has left Kirk on the outside looking in.
Eventually, defenses will begin to pay more attention to Engram and Jones, and things will open up for the veteran slot receiver. This weekend things line up perfectly for Kirk:
- The Jaguars are in a must-win game.
- The Titans are a pass-funnel defense, allowing the most non-overtime yards (291) per game.
- Kirk currently sits at 78 receptions for 1,009 yards; he has $500,000 bonuses at 80, 90 and 100 receptions AND at 1,100 and 1,200 receiving yards.
Kirk will have to share with Zay Jones, who also has incentives of $250,000 at 80 receptions and $500,000 at 900 receiving yards (currently at 78 and 802). However, there is plenty to go around in a great matchup with ascending QB play from Trevor Lawrence.
With the stars aligning, Kirk moves up the ranks to WR13 as a SMASH play.
👕 Can someone help out Sauce Gardner? Let's make it happen.
📅 How ESPN is handing Week 17 matchups for fantasy. Read up.
💪 The Niners are getting reinforcements. This will help during the playoff push.
⁉️ Kayvon Thibodeaux doesn't know that head coach. Who?!?!
📚 Week 18 motivation, incentives, and backups. Everything you need to know.
Our resident betting sharps at Fantasy Life have a group chat. Lucky for you, they are leaking the alpha. Here's what Geoff came up with for this week...All odds via BetMGM
💰 Rams +6.5
Pressure can cause even the most solid NFL teams to crumble in the final week of the regular season. We only have to look back to last year as our most recent example of this when the Colts, as 14.5-point favorites, lost to the Jaguars to miss out on a playoff position.
Right now, the Seahawks currently sit as 6.5-point favorites for Week 18 in their divisional match-up against the Rams. A game they desperately need to win to have any shot at making the postseason. Seattle rose to the occasion against the Jets last week, but it came at a cost. LB Jordyn Brooks tore his ACL in the win, and he not only led the team in tackles but also typically called plays on defense.
Jordyn Brooks, the No. 3 tackler in the NFL, is done for the season after the #Seahawks LB suffered an ACL injury in Sunday's win that will require surgery.
Details here from today's #PeteCarrollShow as well as an update on Tyler Lockett's two injuries: mynw.me/3jItOUo
— Seattle Sports (@SeattleSports)
Jan 3, 2023
It’s a brutal blow for a team ranked 24th in defensive rush DVOA, and who will be facing Cam Akers – an RB who has rushed for 5.71 yards per carry over his last two games.
Prior to Week 13, Sean McVay had dominated this matchup against Pete Carroll, winning five in a row against Seattle dating back to 2019. Now with a confident Baker Mayfield under center, backing McVay and the Rams to simply cover the +6.5 spread against the depleted Seahawks looks like one of the best plays on the board for Week 18.
💰 Tampa Bay at Atlanta Under 40.5
The main theme for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week is simple – just get through this game. You may or may not see Tom Brady and his starting WRs on the field for a series or two, but even if that scenario does occur, there’s no guarantee it will lead to quick early-game points. The Buccaneers, with Brady starting this year, averaged 18.5 points per game and were 5-11 at hitting Overs – the second-worst mark in the league.
The rush-heavy Falcons, on the other side, could only muster 20 points last week against a bottom-tier defense in Arizona and are 6-10 this season on Overs. These two played to a boring 21-15 game in Week 5, and there’s not much reason to expect a more desirable outcome this week with the duo of Blaine Gabbert and Kyle Trask potentially playing quarterback for Tampa for a large portion of this game.
Atlanta already plays at the seventh-slowest situation-neutral pace of play, and we should expect Tampa to come way down off their usual speed this week as well. The Under at anything bigger than 40.0 looks like a great early week total to jump on.
